Monthly inbound cargo volume at major U.S. ports is expected to reach its highest level in nearly two years this summer.
U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in April, ahead of the prior month’s projections of 1.96 million TEUs.
That represents 13.2 percent year-over-year growth and a 4.6 percent increase from March. The April import volume was the highest number since the 2.06 million TEU that entered the nation’s ports last October.
According to the monthly report comprised by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime trade consultancy Hackett Associates, inbound cargo volume expectations from May through September have now been increased from the previous expectations—indicating a flurry of goods into the U.S. ahead of and during the August-to-October peak season.
“Consumers are continuing to spend more than last year, and retailers are stocking up to meet demand, especially as we head into peak shipping season,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF.
Ports have not yet officially reported May’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected that inbound cargo volume rose to 2.09 million TEUs, up 8.3 percent year over year for the highest level since 2.26 million recorded in August 2022.
June is forecast to go even higher at 2.11 million TEUs, up 15.2 percent year over year. Similarly, July is forecast at 2.1 million TEUs, a 9.5 percent jump over the prior year; while August is anticipated to reel in the most cargo throughout the year at 2.17 million TEU, which would represent a 10.6 percent upsurge from 2023 numbers.
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In September, the number is projected to inch back down to 2.06 million TEU, which would be just a 1.7 percent uptick. And finally, October is slightly surpassing the 2-million threshold at 2.01 million TEUs, the first anticipated year-over-year decrease in imports from the year before at a 2.3 decline.
“The high level of imports expected over the next several months is an encouraging sign that retailers are confident in strong sales throughout the remainder of the year,” Gold said. “Unfortunately, retailers are also facing supply chain challenges again, this time with congestion at overseas ports that are affecting operations and shipping rates.”
The congestion at global ports such as Singapore, Shanghai and Ningbo in Southeast Asia has become more of a concern for shippers as it further extends waiting times, particularly on the Asia-to-Europe trade lane directly impacted by the container shipping diversions away from the Red Sea.
The capacity issues resulting from the congestion at the ports, the lengthier routes vessels are now taking around southern Africa to avoid the Suez Canal and an ensuing rising container shortage are all contributing to a rise in freight rates—particularly out of China. As of June 6, ocean spot freight rates increased 12 percent week over week to $4,716 per 40-foot container, according to data from Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI).
In a six-week stretch, these spot rates have escalated 74 percent since April 25.
According to Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, the potential seven-month string of import levels above 2 million TEUs—a level reached only twice since October 2022—is partly due to changes in the annual peak season for shipping.
“Imports of containerized goods at U.S. ports are booming, with particularly strong growth on the West Coast,” Hackett said. “In the last couple of years, we have witnessed a flattened peak season that has stretched out the volume of imports over extra months versus the strong, consolidated surge seen in the past. Reasons range from retailers restocking following strong sales after the pandemic to trying to get ahead of increased tariffs on goods from China set to take effect in August and ensuring sufficient inventories for the holiday season amid strong consumer demand.”
In total, the deluge of imports throughout the first half resulted in escalating expectations for total inbound volume. The first half of 2024 is expected to total 12.1 million TEUs, up 15 percent from the same period last year and 1 million TEUs ahead of initial projections of 11.1 million TEUs.
Imports during 2023 totaled 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8 percent from 2022.
The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting 2024 retail sales growth between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023. Those percentages excluded auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.