EURO 2024 Quarter-Final Clash of the Titans: Where tactics will be decisive in Germany vs Spain – tactical preview

Euro 2024 has provided plenty of shocks and surprises as the group stages and Round of 16 matches have gone on, with major names struggling for performances and lower-ranked sides proving that they are not simply there to make up the numbers.

However, two teams have stood out throughout the chaos and drama and consistently demonstrated their title credentials. Spain and Germany have barely put a foot wrong so far and provided a strong argument as to why they could be the ones to lift the trophy into the Berlin sky on 14 July.

Ultimately, though, only one can get their hands on the silverware, and the clash between the two in the quarter-finals this Friday will help to determine which of them it could be, with them going head-to-head in Stuttgart in a match that could well be one of the most closely-contested yet. With that in mind, this tactical analysis will look at each of the two teams in greater detail to see what can be expected from them strategically and what could help one edge the other when the action does get underway.

Spain’s attacking play

The feeling that many have had when watching Spain so far has been that this is the start of a new era, with them underperforming at recent tournaments and largely failing to match their potential, and it does appear as though head coach Luis de la Fuente has found a way to get them challenging once again.

This has particularly come across when they have been in possession and on the attack, with their structure being to play forwards and demonstrate positivity whenever they have the ball at their feet. In this case, it can be seen how the full-backs are ahead of the centre-backs and that the midfield trio is biased towards offering a greater attacking threat rather than protecting the back line. That is one of the reasons that Spain have been so effective when in transition and have registered a highly impressive 90.6% passing accuracy.

Some pundits have labelled their style “possession with a purpose,” and that really comes across when watching them shift the ball into different spaces and constantly look to play forward. It is abundantly clear that their intention is not simply to retain the ball but to test their opponents where they can, and this proactive mindset has led to them averaging 2.25 goals per game.

It should be mentioned that Georgia did tend to sit back more and focus on counterattacking, and so Spain had more space to get up the field here than others, like Germany, would afford them. However, the point still stands that they have arrived at Euro 2024 with a mission and that playing in this positive manner has been a critical factor in gaining some solid results.

When breaking down the different aspects of Spain’s play, there are many that could be picked out as being critical to their ability to apply pressure in their matches. However, the thing that has consistently caught the eye has been their threat in wide areas, with both Athletic Club’s Nico Williams and Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal proving as the tournament has gone on why they deserved their places not only in the tournament squad but in the starting XI.

Their constant ability to access the half-spaces has made the duo so effective, with them making inside runs and getting into promising positions when there is a chance for them to do so. In this case, Williams is on the edge of the Georgian goal area and is showing for the ball, and that highlights the confidence that he and Yamal have demonstrated and the reasons that so many are reportedly chasing his signature in particular at this moment in time.

However, the player who makes this possible is Marc Cucurella, who endured a mixed season at Chelsea but who has been such a crucial part of Spain’s play as the tournament has gone on and who has allowed those ahead of him to really shine. In this case, he has taken up an advanced wide position, which has allowed Williams to cut inside. His presence also now gives Georgia right-back Otar Kakabadze a problem as he has to decide which of them to mark as he looks to ensure that Spain can’t create a chance here.

This leads to the other theme prominent in Spain’s play, which is a strong sense of unpredictability. Their fluid rotations around the pitch have made it hard for teams to contain them, and their ability to create multiple options has led to situations like this, with former Manchester City centre-back Aymeric Laporte having two players that he can pass to and Spain, therefore, not making it obvious where the ball will go.

In the end, Williams sends it behind so that Cucurella can cross into the goal area. While it might have been cleared at the first attempt, the threat was there, and that shows what Germany will be up against and will need to deal with if they are to emerge victorious on Friday.

Spain’s defensive play

When it comes to Spain’s defensive play, the focus has largely been on working as a unit to ensure that gaps are never left open and that opposing teams do not have any easy chances to shoot at goal. Getting that fundamental aspect right time after time has been vital to limiting the effectiveness of their opponents’ attacks.

Against Albania, it was mainly counterattacking that they needed to be wary of, with Sylvinho’s side known for sitting back and then pushing forward at pace as soon as they had regained the ball. In this case, they have made their way into Spain’s third and are in the midst of fashioning a goalscoring opportunity, but Spain’s defensive shape is well set up, and left-back Álex Grimaldo has moved out to close forward Jasir Asani down.

This in itself is nothing noteworthy, with it simply being a case of a defender performing the basics of their role, but what happens next is what makes this worth pointing out. In short, once Asani moved backwards here with the ball at his feet, Grimaldo followed him and left a space open in the defensive line, and that could have been perilous had Mikel Merino not recognised the danger and dropped back to fill in. By doing so, he not only plugged a hole but also allowed Spain to prevent a secondary attack from right-back Iván Balliu occurring, with the defender receiving the ball from Asani but unable to create anything from it.

The key point to take from this is that Spain are a team who work hard for each other and who have instilled a mindset whereby players react to each other’s movements and ensure that the basic structure of their play is constantly upheld. Therefore, whilst it has been mentioned that they operate in a fluid and rotational manner, there is a sense of shape in everything that they do, and that is why they have conceded only one goal throughout their four matches.

However, with both Albania and Italy playing slowly against them, they had the time to set up their structure and react. Germany can be guaranteed not to afford them the same luxury and will likely play with the same speed and urgency as Croatia did in the opening round of the group stages. This means that Spain will need to be quicker at recognising danger and will need to show strong coordination whenever they do lose the ball.

This has not always been their strength and has led to a few nervy moments as the tournament has gone on. In this situation, two sections of five players developed, and a sizeable gap appeared between them, which Croatia looked to exploit through Luka Modrić picking out Andrej Kramarić, who then sent the ball forward for a shot to be created.

It might not have led to a goal on that occasion, with Croatia wasteful on the day, but it was a sign of how open Spain can be if teams attack at pace. The fact that de la Fuente’s team have won just 58.2% of their defensive duels and 53.3% of their aerial duels means that this is something that they will need to look out for if they are to keep Germany at bay.

Germany’s attacking play

When it comes to the hosts, the key theme that has run throughout much of their offensive play has been adaptability. They find different ways to operate around the field and, therefore, make themselves as tough to contain as possible whenever they have had the ball at their feet.

This was highlighted through their long passes against Denmark, with them showing a different side to their game and one that allowed them to bypass the numbers that their opponents assembled inside the central third and to try and move the ball up to the likes of Kai Havertz before Denmark could drop back and could cut off their routes through to goal. In this case, the aerial ball from centre-back Antonio Rüdiger allowed Havertz to catch Joachim Andersen and Jannik Vestergaard off-guard and to have a shot at goal, and the fact that their second goal resulted from a similar situation highlights how effective it was on the day.

In short, this demonstrates the variation that is present in Germany’s play, with them showing as the tournament has gone on that they can keep the ball on the ground and can go through long passing sequences and periods of possession (with them having a 91.8% passing accuracy so far), but that they can also be more direct when there is a need for them to adopt a different method of creating chances. It is this that has led to them averaging 2.5 goals per game so far, and it would not be a surprise to see them have two or three game plans in mind when they face Spain on Friday and then adapt as the game goes on, depending on what their opponents look to do.

The other thing that has been prominent in their play has been their ability to manipulate their opponents when they get onto the front foot, with them constantly looking to create spaces for them to then test their luck. This was apparent from the first match of the tournament when Scotland looked to frustrate them but ended up falling fowl of their clever play, as was the case here when Niclas Füllkrug found the back of the net in spectacular fashion.

Whilst the Borussia Dortmund striker will take the plaudits for the effort being converted, there does need to be a recognition of the effort made by others in fashioning the opportunity, with the role that Ilkay Gündoğan played particularly important. His movement up the field here led to Scotland’s two lines merging into one and therefore leaving space open behind for Füllkrug to circle into and to get on the ball before then firing into the back of the net, and it is this level of manipulation that fans can expect to see against Spain, with it already clear that the latter team defend in a solid and robust manner and that Julian Nagelsmann’s side will need to work to create gaps as the match goes on.

Germany’s defensive play

Those same themes are present when Germany lose the ball too, with there once again being a strong flavour of adaptability and flexibility in their shape that has made them tough to break down. The fact that they have paired such a strong attacking threat with a formidable defensive presence, as indicated by them conceding just 0.5 times per game, is one of the reasons that they have been one of the tournament’s strongest sides so far.

Most of the time, Germany favour a setup that makes use of the space and that is centred around being organised and working together to occupy spaces horizontally, with them initially starting quite evenly spaced out and then becoming compact once the ball does reach their goal area.

However, there have been times when they have needed to take a different approach, such as this situation when Hungary managed to break through them at the speed that they have been largely known for. At this point, Zsolt Nagy is on the far side of the field and is looking to deliver the ball into the middle. Germany don’t have time to get players back, and so their mentality turns towards going player-to-player and looking to cut out as many potential target players as possible. With that in mind, Rüdiger has drifted out to close down Nagy whilst Jonathan Tah has already moved to occupy the attention of Barnabás Varga, and Emre Can has realised what is happening and so is in the process of tracking back and getting tight to Martin Ádám.

All of this meant that, when the cross was made, Hungary would have had no clear way to convert their opportunity. In the end, it didn’t matter as the cross was diverted behind before it could enter their airspace, but the fact that they were able to adapt is still evident and shows once again how Germany have different ways of playing and can switch between them when there is a need to do so.

However, with Spain likely to rely on attacking through more central routes, the game that really needs to be highlighted is Germany’s final group stage match against Switzerland. Murat Yakin’s side will deploy their wide threats in much the same way as Spain will likely do, providing Germany with a chance to see what they will be up against in Stuttgart.

The player that best resembles what Williams and Yamal will do is Bologna’s Dan Ndoye, and his pace on the counterattack and tendency to drift into spaces between the lines was something that Germany did struggle to deal with at times. In this situation, he has moved between four German players and is looking to give his team a way to send the ball into the open space behind the defenders, and the fact that he is in the eyeline of Tah and is being monitored by Robert Andrich means that it appears at first as though Germany have him covered.

However, as the ball is passed towards Remo Freuler by Fabian Rieder, Germany switch off momentarily, and Ndoye is allowed to run ahead of Tah, with Rudiger moving away from him in an attempt to stop the cross from coming in before turning the ball into the back of the net, and that shows how Germany are not completely unbeatable and that there are moments in which they can be broken down.

This is the sort of thing that Williams and Yamal will look to do, while Ferran Torres and Dani Olmo will also get into these areas and have already indicated their individual quality in them. Germany will need to ensure that moments like this are not repeated when the action does get underway.

Key players

Many of the points made in this analysis have revolved around how the two teams could set up in attack and defence, but it is also worth looking at some of the individuals who will be vital to their nations’ progress. There are many that could be picked out, but the two that have been named are players that might not get the credit that they deserve but who will need to be on form if their teams are to have any chance of reaching the last four.

For Spain, the players who are vital to them implementing their transitional play in a successful manner are the three in the midfield, with them tasked with shifting the ball around the field and both supporting the forward areas and getting back to fill in at the back once they lose the ball. The one who has epitomised that more than most has been Fabián Ruiz, who has tended to operate in a box-to-box role for them and who has demonstrated his quality in both halves of the field as the tournament has gone on.

When it comes to his attacking play, what has made him so important has been his ability to drift between different spaces and pop up wherever his team needs him. This graphic highlights that ability through the variety of distances and angles from which he has shot at goal.

With this in mind, it will be vital that Germany keep a close eye on him on Friday. It is clear that he can have a big say on Spain’s work in and out of possession. The fact that he epitomises Spain’s positional flexibility so well means that staying tight to him and limiting the impact that he can have on the game could give them a better chance of making it into the semi-finals.

In Germany’s case, the defensive line is the area of their team that doesn’t tend to get as much attention as others. This analysis has already highlighted some of the key tactical aspects of their work without the ball, but it is worth pointing out one player who has been critical of them being so tough to break down.

Tah is the player in question, with him constantly at the heart of their defensive effort and marshalling those around him, and it is no surprise when watching him that he is the subject of some intense transfer speculation. As this graphic shows, he has tended to play quite high up the pitch, as has been a critical aspect of Germany’s tactics, but he is also capable of dropping back and of making vital contributions around the goal too, intercepting crosses and passes and generally working hard to break opposing attacks down.

He missed the last game against Denmark due to suspension due to yellow card accumulation, but he will be back in contention on Friday, and Germany will be thankful that this is the case. They have won 67% of their defensive duels and 43.2% of their aerial battles so far, so they have been mostly secure when out of possession, and having him in their ranks will undoubtedly boost their hopes of extending their run in the tournament.

Match prediction

Given what has been stated throughout this analysis about both Spain and Germany, it is a tough game to predict, with it one that really could go either way. Statistically, they are very evenly matched and the fact that they like to control possession (Spain have averaged 60.31% per game so far and Germany 65.19%) and to play in a progressive manner means that clearcut chances and rapid breaks could be at a premium as they essentially cancel each other out.

It could be tournament experience that makes the difference, and it is perhaps Germany that have a slight edge in that regard, with many in their wider squad having appeared at this level before. In contrast, Spain have a very talented squad but one that is still young and learning, and it could be that an opponent of Germany’s magnitude at this stage of the tournament is a step too far for them.

However, it will be a tight and cagey affair regardless of what happens and could well be a match to remember for a long time to come.