House of the Dragon’s Greens Vs. Blacks: Which Faction Has the Edge? Our Handy Head-to-Head Breakdown

SYMBOLS OF LEGITIMACY

As far as most of Westeros is concerned, King Aegon II is a main course with all the trimmings – he has the conqueror’s name, throne, sword, and crown. And his King’s Landing coronation is the biggest and most magnificent show of power, at least until Rhaenys and her mount Meleys crash the party. How is Rhaenyra, semi-exiled on the Targaryen ancestral seat of Dragonstone, supposed to compete with all that pomp and circumstance?

However, the acknowledged heiress does have a few symbolic advantages of her own –not only the crown of King Viserys (which basically screams that she is the named heir), but also the man who brought it to her. Ser Erryk Cargyll, a defecting member of the Kingsguard, abandons Aegon to serve Rhaenrya instead, and that could cast doubts on Aegon’s claim. Her ceremony, however, isn’t trending.

EDGE: GREENS

DRAGONS

All of Aegon’s prized metal might well melt down if confronted by true Targaryen power. Team Black does the math: They say they have 13 dragons (well, make that 12 by the finale’s end), and Team Green boasts four. Let’s break that down. On the side of the Greens, mighty Vhagar is the most fearsome, capable of chomping cradle-egg dragons in half (RIP, Arrax). But the rest? Helaena’s Dreamfyre, although a century old, has an oracle, not a warrior, as a rider. Aegon’s Sunfyre is pretty, sure — but also pretty young. Off-screen brother Daeron’s Tessarion might be too young to deploy – and could possibly be parked in Oldtown with his rider (a Hightower ward). Really, the Green tally here should be two, even if monster Vhagar might be worth several lesser dragons.

Meanwhile, the Blacks have more mounts than riders, starting with Daemon’s Caraxes, Rhaenys’s Meleys and Rhaenyra’s Syrax. The kids have dragons, too (Jacerys’s Vermax, Joffrey’s Tyraxes, Baela’s Moondancer), but as we saw with Lucerys’s Arrax, the young ones aren’t battle-ready. Lazing around at Dragonstone and Driftmark are several dragons, both unclaimed (lullaby-loving Vermithor, Silverwing and Seasmoke) and wild (Sheepstealer, Grey Ghost and possibly the oldest of them all, Cannibal). Even with the unresolved question of whether Laenor’s abandoned Seasmoke will accept a second rider with Laenor still alive, Black could chomp Green in half. Rhaenyra just needs to line up more riders, stat. Any volunteers?

EDGE: BLACKS

MILITARY EXPERIENCE

Dragons alone do not guarantee victory, and the mere act of using them risks reducing their numbers. To win a war, each side needs to know how to mount or defend against an attack, even without dragon superiority. Remember when Rhaenyra had the privilege of picking out her very own Kingsguard? Ser Criston Cole beat out the other applicants because he had “combat experience” on his resume. He was a foot soldier against the Dornish incursion, and now he’s Team Green’s most military-minded member — outside of Vhagar, who has seen much combat but isn’t good at brainstorming martial strategy.

Team Black has a considerable advantage, after Daemon Targaryen and Corlys Velaryon did tours in the Stepstones, the latter (finally) winning the long and protracted war there. (Commanding the largest fleet in Westeros probably didn’t hurt.) Plus, three of their dragons — Caraxes, Seasmoke and Vermithor, who, like Cole, earned combat experience during the Dornish wars – have been tried and tempered in battle. Still, those foreign entanglements didn’t endanger innocents; that would have changed the stakes. Also: The City Watch is a small but crucial force — where do its members stand? The Greens determine that there are two captains loyal to Daemon (who helped make them fierce and fashionable), but the count could be off. Will the Black loyalists be replaced before Daemon’s messages arrive?

EDGE: BLACKS

SPYCRAFT

No one seems to be holding the title of Master — or Mistress — of Whisperers just yet, but Larys Strong and Mysaria should submit their job applications. Rhaenrya’s Strong boys are Larys’ nephews, but he doesn’t care much for blood relations. (See: Burning of Harrenhal.) So far, this Lord Confessor has worked for the benefit of Team Green, yet loyalty seems little more than a footnote to him. Even if he walks, the Greens have proved adept at playing game on their own (recall the information lockdown following the king’s demise) and can supplement intelligence gathering via their Citadel connections. How many illiterate lords like Borros Baratheon depend on their maesters to read and write their letters for them?

Meanwhile, Mysaria probably feels burned (sorry!) by Team Green. She has every reason now to want to rise from the flames and rejoin Team Black, who can use some help with their guile game. Her web of spies in the Red Keep might have been torn, but not taken down; even know-it-all Larys had to admit he doesn’t know their true number. And the Blacks desperately need eyes and ears in King’s Landing.

EDGE: GREENS (at last report, at least)

ASSETS

Don’t forget the finances. Corlys is not just a military ally, but also an economic one, and the wealth of House Velaryon may be needed to hire extra swords and ships, give bribes and “gifts” to whatever lords might need extra convincing, or pay spiders to catch or kill targets. Corlys also understands that he can use the shipping lanes to cut off trade — something he had tried to warn the crown about since Episode 1, when the Triarchy made the top of his to-do list. This strategy could cost the Greens, but for now they have plenty of funds. Master of Coin Tyland Lannister, replacing poor Lyman Beesbury, divides the crown’s treasury for safekeeping. Parts of it will be under guard — some at Casterly Rock with the Lannisters (they might also contribute); maybe some at Oldtown with the Hightowers (who might also kick in); some at the Iron Bank of Braavos; and some remaining under sovereign dominion in King’s Landing. Despite Corlys’s vast wealth, the Blacks can’t match the Greens here, not without some new income streams.

EDGE: GREENS

INNER CIRCLE

When it comes to her household, Rhaenyra is surrounded by the blood of Old Valyria. Putting aside her “Strong” boys for a second (we’ll come back to them), Team Black includes Prince Daemon (onetime would-be heir, oldest living Targaryen male) and Princess Rhaenys (former claimant for the throne, oldest living Targyaryen female). Sure, drawing the family tree is a bit awkward — Daemon is Rhaenyra’s husband and uncle, cousin Rhaenys is a former mom-in-law to both — but they contribute lots of royal legitimacy. Unfortunately, Aegon is sorely lacking in older Targaryen role models, and he didn’t grow up learning to rule from dear old dad. The new king’s connections are more on the Hightower side of the family — Alicent, Otto, and Hobert Hightower, the last of whom essentially runs Oldtown.

EDGE: BLACKS

THE HEIR'S HAIR

“The seed is strong,” Game of Thrones once told us. That’s Westerosi-speak for dominant versus recessive genes, meaning that dark hair (in that case, a Baratheon trait) should win out over blond (a Lannister trait). Of course, in the real world, we know that it’s a little more complicated, but pre-Dance, we have another hair problem. Alicent’s kids all sport Targaryen-blond locks. Even Aegon’s unacknowledged bastard (condemned to grow up in a feral fighting pit) is so platinum blonde, he virtually screams royal roots. But Rhaenyra’s first three sons (legally attributed to Laenor Velaryon, but actually sired by Ser Harwin Strong) have brown hair, and many take that as proof of their real parentage. Whether people say “Strong boys” out loud or hold their tongues, the question of their legitimacy is hangs in the air, a nasty stench that no amount of royal air freshener can mask.

EDGE: GREENS

SWORN ALLIES

Even with dragons, the Blacks seriously need to catch up to the Greens, who had a sizable head start. Yes, the Greens do have the Lannisters (Rhaenyra’s past rudeness to them does her no favors here), and that gives them much of the Westerlands; but the Blacks are wrong to assume that the Hightowers have an equally tight grip on the Reach. (More on that in a bit.) Rhaenyra inspires more loyalty in the bannermen and vassals of Dragonstone: Lord Celtigar of Claw Isle (another House descended from old Valyria, although not dragonriders), Lord Staunton of Rook’s Rest, Lord Massey of Stonedance, Lord Darklyn of Duskendale, and Lord Bar Emmon of Sharp Point. Her most powerful ally is Corlys Velaryon (and his fleet), and with these Houses, she will control the entire eastern coast and waters, at which point the proposed blockade would be simplicity itself to pull off. Superiority in the sea and sky could be theirs.

EDGE: BLACKS

LIKELY SUPPORT

In order to attract support, both sides try dragon diplomacy as a means to rally the realm to their side. The Greens offer to sweeten the deal with marriage alliances and other “generous terms,” as Otto puts it. But the Blacks think all they need to do is remind Houses of oaths they (or their fathers) once gave. That doesn’t work at Storm’s End, the key to the Stormlands. The Blacks do have a better shot at isolated areas like the Vale and the North. In addition to the kin connection with the Vale, it’s in Lady Jeyne Arryn’s interest to defend a woman’s right to rule. She risks her Eyrie seat if Rhaenyra is put aside. And we know how the Starks at Winterfell feel about honoring oaths. It just might take them a bit longer to march south.

EDGE: BLACKS

UP FOR GRABS

Although the lesser lords in the North, the Stormlands, and the Westerlands tend to support their liege lords, bannermen loyalties in the Reach and the Riverlands can be divided, especially when it comes to Targaryens. The trick is to find the ones who have yet to declare allegiance and secure their support. The Blacks assume the Reach is out of reach, but they really underestimate how much Hightower hate there is. Will a head start for the Greens be enough to overcome that? Instead of trying to sway the Lord Paramount – Lord Tyrell at Highgarden, who’s only a child – each side needs to do more outreach. (Remember Lord Caswell, who tried to flee to warn Rhaenyra? His House is also in the Reach, at Bitterbridge, and they probably didn’t appreciate his execution.)

Establishing a base in the centrally located Riverlands is also essential, as is getting the support of the Lord Paramount, Lord Grover Tully of Riverrun. (The Tullys of this period are named Grover, Elmo and Kermit. Make of that what you will.)  Larys might claim his family’s seat, but he’s not occupying it — Daemon’s plan to seize Harrenhal and turn it into Team Black’s gathering ground could send a very Strong message as an opening move.

EDGE: BLACKS

AND THE WINNER...?

THE BLACKS!

By our tally, Rhaenyra has the edge. She might not win the PR battle (optics are not on her side), but she’s got enough fire and blood to win this dragon dance-off. Targaryens, get ready to rumble.

Now it’s your turn. Who will you back when House of the Dragon returns for Season 2? Show your allegiance via the poll below!