Carbon Brief reposted this
The dust has settled on #COP29 and there has been time to reflect on the outcome for climate finance 💰 Going into it, this was always going to be the issue that defined this year's COP. Nations had a deadline to agree on a new goal for directing large amounts of money into climate action in developing countries. The global south argued, with the support of much independent analysis, that they needed more than $1tn every year to cut their emissions and protect themselves from climate impacts. The final outcome was a goal of $300bn/year by 2035 for developing countries, largely raised by developed countries such as the EU, the US and Japan. This was framed by some as a "tripling" of the previous climate-finance goal, and it certainly sounds like a lot of money. However, not only is it far short of the ~$600bn in purely public finance that developing countries wanted from developed countries, the reality is that it can likely be met with very little additional effort. There are a few reasons for this... 1️⃣ Before the COP29 deal was agreed, developed countries were already on track to reach around $200bn in climate finance. This is the result of existing pledges by donor countries and multilateral development banks. 2️⃣ The climate finance goal may include voluntary contributions from developing countries that already distribute climate-related aid, such as China. As it stands, this money is not officially counted as "climate finance" under the UN system, but if developing countries choose to count it, this will instantly add billions to the annual total (without any additional money being provided). This could bring the total to around $265bn by 2030 – not too far off the 2035 goal. 3️⃣ It's also worth noting that the goal itself does not adjust for inflation. This means that the $300bn pledged today will be worth less when the target is met in 10 years time – roughly 28% less, assuming 3% annual inflation. As the Guardian put it, this means the $300bn is “not the tripling of pledges that has been claimed”. Of course, there's nothing wrong with existing pledges already being in place, or counting voluntary contributions from developing countries. But those anxiously monitoring negotiations at the COP had hoped that these existing funds would help to drive a more ambitious final figure. Instead, developing countries said the outcome was "a joke" and "a betrayal". As for the trillions, there was a wider target agreed at COP for "all actors" to help raise $1.3tn a year by 2035 – in line with developing countries' demands. But this target is so vague about who will provide the money (the private sector? new types of taxation?) that in many people's view it is largely meaningless... At least for now. I go into more depth on this stuff in this Carbon Brief analysis, in which I round up work by analysts to explain these issues: https://lnkd.in/efais-q9