Centre for Policy Studies

⚡️ New CPS analysis raises severe questions over Ed Miliband's energy plans Ed Miliband hailed a recent report from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) as vindicating his plan to decarbonise the grid by 2030. But a new CPS analysis shows that the NESO report is built around a series of assumptions designed to cast Miliband’s plans in the best possible light, rather than reflecting the reality of the energy markets. NESO justifies Miliband’s plans by forecasting high gas and carbon prices – substantially higher than market projections, or even the numbers produced by his own department. His pledge to save households £300 on their energy bills and the conclusions of the NESO report rest on a set of highly dubious assumptions Read more 👇 https://lnkd.in/efwRKDai

Yesterday we hosted the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, for her first major policy announcement since becoming Conservative Party leader earlier this month. Echoing findings from CPS reports such as Taking Back Control and Stopping the Crossings, she argued that the pace and scale of immigration had imposed pressure on public services and the housing market, and made it harder to properly integrate those from different cultures. Watch it back here 👇 https://lnkd.in/eYufFvvb

Margaret Thatcher Conference returns in 2025!! MTC25: Remaking conservatism will focus on the future of the conservative movement, examining how the case for free markets, lower taxes and a smaller state can be remade. What can be learnt from the global conservative movement and how can conservative principles become popular again in Britain? The conference will bring together politicians, activists, academics, business leaders, and leading commentators to reinvigorate the intellectual underpinnings of centre-right politics. 📝 Sign up here to be the first to hear when tickets go on sale https://lnkd.in/e7XBygZi

The latest ONS figures show that the fertility rate in England and Wales has dropped to the lowest rate on record. Between 2022 and 2023, the average number of children born to a woman in England and Wales was 1.44. In Scotland, this number was even lower at 1.3. These rates do not only signify the choice among young adults to delay parenthood, but a growing trend to forgo it altogether. The UK Generations and Gender Survey released earlier this year found that 15% of those aged 18 to 24 definitely did not intend to have a child. That is a 10 percentage point increase from people who were the same age in 2005. Among younger millennials (those aged 25 to 34), less than half said they definitely or probably intend to have a child. 🍼 Labour’s anti-family agenda is unsustainable | CPS researcher Tanika D'Souza writes for CapX https://lnkd.in/egH3b8k5

🤯 State spending set to increase to £1.5 trillion 💰 300-year tax high 💼 52,000 fewer people in work 🚑 NHS budget equivalent to the current GDP of New Zealand or Greece New CPS analysis shows that Labour is reverting to its traditional view that the state can and should dictate the direction of the economy. The OBR projects meagre growth and stagnant productivity as a result. Private business investment will be crowded out, in favour of the state attempting to pick winners. Read more 👇 https://lnkd.in/ezS_cHhS

The Chancellor, at the beginning of her speech, was keen to put this Budget in a historic context from a political perspective. From an economic and financial markets perspective, it was felt that whoever won the election would need to address our poor fiscal position, and the high level of debt. Boosting public investment, funded by higher taxes and borrowing, has been the focus today. Addressing the scale of debt has been left to a future date. Unless growth moves materially higher, addressing the overhang of debt remains the key future challenge. CPS Research Fellow Dr Gerard Lyons delivers his verdict on yesterday's Budget https://lnkd.in/e4eyQ-UW

❌ 'The Budget leaves Britain with staggeringly high - and historically unprecedented - levels of tax and spending' CPS Director Robert Colvile responds to Labour's Budget 👇 https://lnkd.in/ek7A3u7h

🤖 New report | Left-leaning bias 'commonplace' in AI powered chatbots When asked to provide policy recommendations across 20 key policy areas, more than 80% of Large Language Model generated responses were left of centre. This was particularly marked on issues such as housing, the environment and civil rights. On housing, LLMs emphasised recommendations on rent controls, rarely mentioning the supply of new homes On civil rights, the term ‘hate speech’ is among the most mentioned terms but ‘freedom of speech’, ‘free speech’ and ‘freedom’ are broadly absent. However, the LLM designed to give right-of-centre responses heavily emphasised ‘freedom’ On energy, the most common terms included ‘renewable energy’, ‘transition’, ‘energy efficiency’, and ‘greenhouse gas’, with little to no mention of ‘energy independence’ Read more 👇 https://lnkd.in/e3-4KNGS

The UK is in a great position to establish itself as one of the best places in the world to launch and grow AI companies, but our success is not a historical inevitability. Government and regulation can easily get in the way. CPS Head of Tech and Innovation Matthew Feeney writes for CapX https://lnkd.in/ezpQj8vW

New report | Labour tax hike could stunt growth and lead to an exodus of investors The Chancellor is reportedly considering hiking capital gains tax (CGT) in next week’s Budget, as part of plans to find £40 billion in spending cuts and tax rises. CGT is widely accepted to be a damaging tax - hampering investment and economic growth and raising relatively little. Despite raising relatively little revenue for the Treasury (1.5% of all revenue), CGT is an incredibly distortive and complex tax, paid by just 369,000 taxpayers in 2022-23. Our new report, ‘Capital Losses’ by Daniel Herring, CPS tax and fiscal policy researcher, highlights how the current CGT regime derives 80% of its revenue from just 38,000 individuals. Even small behavioural changes from this group in response to the Budget could have major revenue impacts, the opposite of those the Chancellor envisions, as people move assets overseas to more tax competitive environments or hold onto assets for longer to avoid being liable for taxable gains. Such a move would reduce revenue, drive away investment and damage economic growth. The report instead urges the Chancellor to instead take a longer-term view. Making the case for reductions in CGT to promote entrepreneurship and boost investment as part of a wider strategy on growth. Over the last decade, when headline rates of CGT were lowered, revenue as a percentage of GDP increased.