Exawatt - now part of CRU

We have officially moved over to the CRU LinkedIn account! Follow along to stay updated on the latest industry insights, expert analyses, and more.

Where does the US *actually* import its solar modules from? 🇺🇸 Earlier this year, President Trump claimed that for the US “100% of the panels are made in China”, whilst in the past this may have been closer to the truth this is much less true today A number of years ago, before the first AD-CVD case in the US in 2012, China was the dominant exporter to the US. However, to avoid tariffs associated with AD-CVD cases, many Chinese manufacturers broadened their horizons and established manufacturing locations in SE Asia Today, China does not even rank in the top ten list of PV module exporters to the US. Instead, a more correct statement would be that most modules exported to the US come from South-East Asia. Albeit, mostly by Chinese owned companies often using Chinese-made wafers! Over the last few years Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia have been the key source of modules for the US. More recently, changes to tariffs and incentives in the US are shifting the landscape, with other South-East Asian countries like Laos taking a larger share, after seeing an increase in manufacturing capacity Of course, things are constantly changing, so the US market is definitely one to watch!  We’ll be discussing the ever-changing US solar landscape, looking at supply issues and changing trade flows across the entire value chain in CRU and PVEL’s joint webinar TOMORROW. Register for free here: https://lnkd.in/eiRR5q9J #makesolargreatagain #solartechnologyandcost #solarPV

Ever wish you had a magic 8 ball to look into the future of the solar PV industry? 🎱 Well, CRU’s quarterly webinars in collaboration with Kiwa PVEL might be the next best thing! Tune into our free webinar on the 12th February for a deep dive into our Q1 Solar Technology and Cost Service and our view of what to expect for the solar industry in 2025 Alex, Tristan, Jorn, Max and myself will discuss topics including: ☀️ What does PV supply/demand look like at the start of 2025, and how are manufacturers responding to the ongoing oversupply issues? ☀️ What's the outlook for US imports and US manufacturing going into a new year and a new administration? ☀️ What new modules and technology trends are likely to emerge in 2025? ☀️ Will TOPCon modules continue to dominate the market, and how are they performing in Kiwa PVEL’s tests? ☀️ Plus, insights from CRU’s Silicon Market Service! Registration is free: https://lnkd.in/eh63WX9J #solartechnologyandcost #STAC #solarPV

I’m very excited to be presenting at SolarPower Europe's Solar Quality Summit 2025! ☀️ Solar PV is one of the vital technologies driving the clean energy transition and in 2024 the solar industry experienced rapid growth. But as the industry grows, how will manufacturers continue to innovate in terms of technologies and performance? And how will we navigate the challenge of maintaining quality at scale? On the 18th February 2025, I’ll be speaking in the PV Crash Course session on these topics alongside Simon Dupond, Michael Schmela and Thérèse O Donoghue and Benoit van der Maas Register or find more about the event here: https://lnkd.in/eaRWke5D and if you’re not attending the event but you’ll be in Barcelona and would like to meet, let me know! #SolarQualityEU #SolarPowerEurope #solarPV

Register now for our free February 12th webinar on Hot Topics and Key Questions for the Solar Industry in 2025. Molly Morgan, Tristan Erion-Lorico, Max Macpherson, silicon metal specialist Jorn de Linde and I will be covering a few tasters from our 2025 Q1 reports. We'll be talking: - Chinese cartels - TOPCon testing - silicon supply - American AD/CVD - and all-TOPCon advances Hopefully without such tortured alliteration 🤦, though I make no promises. Register here if you're keen to learn more about how the industry is set to evolve this year: https://lnkd.in/eMYkkUdD

Here’s what you missed from the last 12 months in the solar PV industry:   🇨🇳 China’s domination of global module manufacturing capacity continued, representing 80% of global capacity. This isn’t going to change, and recent policy updates from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on capacity performance requirements are unlikely to have a significant impact on overcapacity   🔟 The top ten manufacturers account for ~52% of global module capacity. To put this into context, total global capacity by the end of 2024 reached almost three times greater than likely demand in 2025. The top ten manufacturers alone already have the capacity to account for 130% of expected 2025 global installations   🌍 Growth in global installations slowed year-on-year, down from a 77% Y/Y increase in 2023 to 17% in 2024. We forecast PV installations will continue to increase, but growth rates to remain at broadly similar levels to 2024   📈 Overproduction throughout the supply chain (polysilicon, through ingot, wafer and cell, to module) remained at unsustainable levels in 2024, meaning downwards pressure on prices will persist into 2025. Following a large-scale transition away from mono PERC in 2024, the majority of production is now TOPCon technology   5️⃣ The top five manufacturers account for ~54% of global module production, with module production the least consolidated step of the solar PV supply chain   🏭 Consolidation of production has not only occurred at the module level. Recent years saw the polysilicon, wafer and cell markets experience high levels of consolidation in terms of the production of the top ten manufacturers. We expect more manufacturers to be forced out the market in 2025, but with small impact on the levels of consolidation due to the scale of the top ten producers    Need more information on the big picture of the solar market? Get in touch to register interest for CRU’s soon-to-be-released Solar PV Market 101 report, a one-stop shop for the most important market facts and figures ☀️ #solarPV #solartechnology #PVmarket

Which solar manufacturer had the biggest technological leap in 2024? ☀️   I had the pleasure of discussing this topic with George Touloupas, Amy Fang and Jonathan Gifford at the end of last year to crown the winner of the module category in the 2024 pv magazine Global awards! There was a clear consensus that back-contact technology has advanced in leaps and bounds over the past twelve months, with manufacturers AIKO Energy and LONGi Solar acting as key drivers of the technology In comparison to TOPCon, back-contact technology has a smaller impact on the market due to its significantly smaller market share (roughly 70% of production in 2024 for TOPCon, vs. 5% for back-contact). Nonetheless, the category deserves recognition for its rear-contact design which results in reduced shading losses that in turn enables higher efficiencies In 2024, within CRU’s PV Module Tracker, Aiko has consistently led the back-contact category (and the market as a whole) in terms of efficiency. By the end of 2024, Aiko had released back-contact module datasheets with stated maximum efficiency of over 25%. As a result, the max efficiency of the back-contact technology improved by 1.17% (abs.) in 2024, compared to 0.91% and 0.75% for rival technologies heterojunction and TOPCon respectively   If you are curious about how performance metrics of the various technologies will play out in the near future, tune in to CRU's upcoming webinar in partnership with Kiwa PVEL for discussions on this topic and many more! Message me or drop a comment below to be sent a registration link once it's available! #solartechnology #backcontact #solarPV

Today marks my last day at CRU/Exawatt - now part of CRU! It’s been an awesome three and a half years, starting with a 3-month internship, to working part-time whilst finishing my PhD, to joining full time last year after the CRU acquisition. I’ve learnt a whole lot from some great colleagues, ranging from techno-economic analysis of batteries, how commodity markets work, and more than I ever thought I would about solar PV and power electronics. Some highlights have been exploring the plunge pools of Sheffield, trying my hand at whirlyball, visiting factories across China, and all the great people I’ve met along the way! There are so many people to thank for all their help over the last few years, including but not limited to Charlie Durant, Sam Adham, Matthew Perlman, Jeremy Lowen, Simon Price, Edward Rackley, Francesca MacLennan (Long) and Megan Wilson. I’m looking forward to starting a new role at the start of January, still within the battery industry. #sustainability #batteries #newyearnewjob

Battery manufacturing: Only the lowest-cost producers will survive Over the last year and a half, cell production costs have plummeted, due to falling lithium prices, increased automation and technology advancements. Furthermore, due to huge oversupply within the Chinese market, margins are hovering close to 0%, resulting in low cell prices but financial difficulties throughout the market. Therefore, being able to produce cells at the lowest production costs is paramount for survival during these tough times, and this is an area where newcomers to the industry are struggling. Chinese companies have a 20-year head start, resulting in highly optimised manufacturing process, and an industry where vertical integration is strong, enabling top producers to lower costs even further (second graph). This results in new manufacturers in Europe and North America facing several barriers in achieving cost competitiveness. Therefore, the focus should be shifted away from producing the most advanced technology, and towards producing good-enough cells, with low scrap rates, automated factories in locations with cheap electricity. Doing so could enable newcomers to the industry to rapidly reduce production costs, giving a pathway to early revenue that could be reinvested into R&D. Read more about the current landscape for battery production here: https://lnkd.in/ew42aAAH #sustainabilty #batteries #manufacturing #LFP #NMC

Will BYD’s batteries get even cheaper in 2025? Earlier this week, BYD asked its suppliers to reduce their prices by 10% in an effort to further reduce the production costs for their vehicles. I therefore wanted to know what impact this might have on battery cell production costs as we move towards 2025. To investigate this, I used an existing bottom-up model for BYD’s production costs, and reduced the material input prices for 2025 by 10%, assuming that energy and labour rates would remain unchanged. This results in a 7% decrease in production costs from 2024 – a profound saving given that the average gross profit margin for Chinese battery manufacturers is roughly 15%. There will surely be a lot of pushback from suppliers, given that intense price competition and an overcrowded market is already causing most Chinese midstream suppliers to operate at close to or even below the cost production. However, the bargaining power in the supply chain is currently held by the major battery cell manufacturers. There may be further room to eke out savings from suppliers, just as CATL has been notorious for over the past few years. This may not be sustainable into the long term, but the Chinese industry has proven to be resilient and adaptable. Due to many Chinese companies already operating at close to- or below - production cost. With BYD themselves highlighting this is the goal price reduction, and there is further room for savings with ongoing efforts in factory automation, or negotiation on electricity prices. And this is not considering the next generation Blade cells that are set to be released in 2025. So, cost declines will continue into 2025, with top producers drawing incremental savings in manufacturing, cell design, and material supply. #sustainability #batteries #costs #battchatt #manufacturing