Food Strategy Associates

🛒 Food Strategy Associates’ analysis on The Grocer's Top Products Survey from last year... This was the most comprehensive survey so far, covering 127 categories and thousands of brands with retail sales of £161billion, data is for the 52 weeks ending 7th September 2024   𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 • Overall Grocery value sales were up 4.9% YoY. Price inflation has fallen, since the peaks of 2022/23, but still averaged +4.9% for F&B categories • Units growth was positive in 2024 (+0.6%), after two years of volume declines • Retailer Private Label grew strongly in the inflationary period, in 2024 57% of F&B categories saw PL share growth, with Discounters continuing to gain share • Private Label share varies significantly across categories, reflecting the power of brand investment, innovation and differentiation (especially in beer and snacking categories) • Premium Private Label continues to grow as shoppers increasingly recognise quality and innovation rather than just value advantages 𝐒𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 • Sports Nutrition: highest category growth with volumes +25% and value +30%. Grenade (Mondelēz International) leads the category with sales ~£100m. Huel (#2 brand) had the highest absolute growth with sales up over 60% • Herbs & Spices: volume growth of +14%, boosted by more adventurous home cooking • Energy Drinks: continued high growth from the top 2 brands (Red Bull and Monster Energy), now holding 58% of the total category. Prime sales nearly halved in the year • Flavoured Milk: 10% volume growth driven by gut health, protein and iced coffee trends • Bakery: Warburtons continue to win in the category, growing by over 10%, with the other mainstream brands of Hovis Ltd and Kingsmill seeing continued declines • Tea: Another strong year for the market leader, Yorkshire Tea, with value sales up 17% • Crisps & Snacks: An unusual value sales decline for Walkers Crisps UK, as KP Snacks brands performed well (especially Hula Hoops +13%, McCoys +8%, Tyrrells +11%) • Meat-free: Another difficult year for meat-free with volumes down 9% and value -7%. Market leader Quorn Foods saw -10% value decline, the two bright spots were The Tofoo Co and THIS™ with gains of ~£5m  #grocery #foodanddrink #privatelabel

Gimv adds some spice to its Consumer portfolio! 🌶️ We are delighted to congratulate Gimv on its recent acquisition of The Spice Factory! TSF, a leading Belgium-based manufacturer of herbs and spices, has built a strong European presence, supplying both branded and private-label products to major retailers and foodservice providers. TSF’s impressive growth and ambitious international strategy make it a fantastic addition to Gimv’s Consumer portfolio. At Food Strategy Associates, we were thrilled to support Gimv with buy-side commercial due diligence for this exciting transaction. This marks another milestone in our rapid European expansion. Reflecting on our collaboration, David De Peuter (Partner at Gimv) shared: "Food Strategy Associates’ deep industry expertise and sharp, data-driven insights were critical in shaping our view of the market and business. They challenged our thinking while acting as a pragmatic and solutions-oriented partner, giving us the confidence to move forward with this acquisition. Their structured yet hands-on support made a real impact throughout the process." We’re excited to see The Spice Factory thrive under Gimv’s ownership and continue its inspiring growth journey. Congratulations again to all involved! #MergersAndAcquisitions #PrivateEquity #Strategy #FoodIndustry #Growth #EuropeanExpansion #ConsumerGoods Gimv The Spice Factory David De Peuter Koen Bouckaert Laurens Boriale, CFA Robin de Pender Jorgen De Pelsmaeker Robert Lawson Arthur Oesterle Liam Beaney-Frade Alec Bandy Tom Hooker Oliver Adams Michel Acda

🎉𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐞𝐚𝐦 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬!🎉 We’re thrilled to welcome Arthur Oesterle as Senior Associate! In his advisory role, Arthur will support us in strengthening our presence in DACH and Benelux. Arthur brings 14+ years of experience in consulting and operational leadership, with a strong focus on retail, consumer goods, and food & beverage. His expertise spans corporate, growth, and go-to-market strategy and execution, as well as M&A transaction support, making him a perfect fit for our work with both food & beverage companies and investors (private equity and beyond). Some highlights from his career: 🔸 OC&C Strategy Consultants: Advised leading consumer and retail brands on strategy, commercial excellence, and investment decisions as a project manager and consultant. 🔸 Picnic Technologies: Co-founded and co-led the expansion of this innovative online grocery platform in Germany, overseeing growth, marketing, and strategic planning. 🔸 BRINCKMANN & LANGE: Launched and led this modern multichannel retailer, driving strong expansion across Germany and establishing one of the leading premium players in the industry. 🔸 Start-ups: Advised start-ups and founders in the consumer goods and retail sectors on a pro-bono basis, having completed 25+ assignments to date. Welcome to the team Arthur! 🎉

For the latest on the evolving story around Diageo, look no further than the post by Partner Richard Wyborn

📈 January Grocery value sales growth increases from +2.1% to +4.3% Worldpanel by Kantar #Grocery #Retail #GroceryRetail

🎉 𝐀 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐛𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠! 🎉 Our very own Nigel has just completed his 200th factory visit – an incredible achievement that speaks to his dedication, expertise, and passion for the food industry. 📍 16 countries visited, including 163 factories in the UK, plus sites across the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Mauritius, and beyond 🏭 A deep dive into 121 Ambient, 64 Chilled, and 15 Frozen facilities 🔎 From his career pre-FSA: 20 Hovis, 18 Geest, 13 Premier, and 12 MBM sites When asked which is his favourite factory... “I always struggle when asked which is my favourite factory! I love the highly skilled artisan bakeries as much as those facilities with high degrees of automation. I think my favourite factories are those that are well managed, with appropriate degrees of automation, a highly engaged and enthusiastic workforce “ “One of the craziest things I’ve seen is an enthusiastic entrepreneur riding their bicycle round a factory with the Labrador close at heel!” 🚴🐕 To tap into this vast experience and expertise contact Nigel Devine. From bakery to beverages, dairy to deli, he's seen it all – gaining invaluable insights along the way. Here’s to the next 200, Nigel! #FoodIndustry #FactoryVisits #FoodManufacturing #FoodStrategyAssociates #Expertise

🌍 How can we make seafood production more sustainable? 🌊 Emerging solutions like Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS) and sustainable aquaculture feed are transforming the industry. RAS minimises water usage through filtration and reuse, while innovations in feed focus on reducing the environmental impact of aquaculture. Yesterday, Nigel Devine attended the Nordic Seafood Summit, gaining insights into these advancements and exploring how they address challenges like resource scarcity and the growing demand for seafood. Want to learn more about how these innovations are shaping the future of seafood production? Reach out to Nigel. #Sustainability #Seafood #NordicSeafoodSummit

🏭 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐩𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬? Our Operations Expert and Partner, Nigel Devine, was a panelist at Knight Frank's Future Gazing 2025 launch event at The Grand Connaught Rooms in London. To find out more, the link to Knight Frank's Future Gazing 'Manufacturing Evolution and Implications for Industrial and Logistics' report can be found in the comments. The report explores the evolving landscape of UK manufacturing, its influence on the industrial and logistics market, and considerations for investors. Please contact Nigel to learn more about our manufacturing experience and how we can support your business. #Manufacturing #Food #Logistics

🚀 After a year of strong growth, we are delighted to have been shortlisted as a finalist for two awards - Commercial Due Diligence Provider of the Year and Specialist Due Diligence Provider of the Year - at the Real Deals Private Equity Awards 2025. We look forward to the awards night on 3rd April in London! We are a leading European provider of commercial and operational due diligence support on Food & Beverage transactions. Please reach out to us to find out more about our offering. #duediligence #mergersandacquisitions #foodandbeverage

💉 With GLP-1 medication gaining traction in developed economies, our Consumer Expert Steve Gladwell attended a Circana webinar on its impact. His key outtakes were: 1️⃣ 𝐆𝐋𝐏-1 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐝 • Reduced spending and shifting category consumption, particularly in countries with high obesity and diabetes rates •  In the US, 13% of US F&B units to be purchased by GLP-1 households by 2034 •  Most people use it to combat chronic illness, however, around 40% primarily to lose weight. Non-prescribed costs for the drug are ~$1k per month, implying usage rates could grow significantly if costs come down 2️⃣ 𝐂𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 • More products are using GLP-1 in their product claims. Foods with positive benefits include eggs, nuts, grains, avocado, olive oil and vegetables • Side effects exists - including abdominal pain, constipation, diarrhoea and nausea - there are opportunities for messaging on products that alleviate these issues • Healthier adjacent categories can look to grow as consumption declines in some categories which are advised to be avoided, for example, those that are fried, high in saturated fat, spicy, and fatty meat 3️⃣ 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐫 • GLP-1 users tend to be spending more on CPG products, both before and during medication, however, indexed CPG retail spend falls by ~2% in the first few months of usage, with decline lessening as time of usage increases • Specific products with the biggest declines are salad dressings, meat snacks, spreads, wine, beer, spicy foods, ice cream, energy and carbonated drinks • Circana impact numbers are not as high as other recent surveys. A study by Cornell University found that US households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce their spending by approximately 6% within six months, with higher-income households cutting their expenditure by nearly 9%