Insight Forward

🚨 Our full report on the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 is now available. 🌍 This report provides crucial insights to help businesses navigate an increasingly complex world. 📊 🔑 Key Takeaways: Corporations are no longer solely economic entities. They are now prominent geopolitical actors influencing and are being influenced by global political dynamics. The return of great power politics, including U.S.-China decoupling, is driving the rise of trade barriers, technology balkanization, and currency risks. This is forcing corporations to reassess their supply chains and navigate increasingly fragmented markets. Additionally, political and social instability across the Global South, along with the global rise in nationalism and polarization within domestic markets, poses significant challenges. These dynamics threaten operational continuity, heighten security concerns, and create reputational risks for companies as they grapple with aligning their values amid increasingly polarized consumer bases and governments. To thrive, corporations must become adept at anticipating and mitigating a wide range of risks. This requires a proactive and strategic approach to geopolitical risk management, which includes closely monitoring global events, understanding the interconnectedness of risks, and embedding these considerations into strategic planning. ✅ Download the full report now! 👇

🚀 The latest edition of PESTLE & MORTAR is now on our website! 🔎 In this edition: UN and Cable Protections New Export Restrictions on China Chinese Demographic Problems China Bond Yield Drops Below 2% Rebels Retake Aleppo in Syria South Korea France’s Government Collapses OECD’s Growth Forecast Russia Destabilizing Europe with Sabotage CEO of UnitedHealthcare Killed in Targeted Attack 📖 Read it here https://lnkd.in/exzj3Wjv ✉️ Want early access? Sign up to receive it a day before everyone else directly in your inbox. https://lnkd.in/e6gH4CSW

The CEO of UnitedHealthcare appears to have been killed a targeted attack, gunned down outside a hotel. This is another example of the increased risks of assassinations of all public figures, corporate and political alike. Insight Forward included assassinations as one of the top risks for corporations in 2025. To understand the issue more, please read the report. Link is in the comment. Or reach out if you're interested in our analytic services to stay ahead of these kinds of risks. #security #assassination #violence #targetedkilling #intelligence #strategicintelligence https://lnkd.in/euctRW27

Polarization and Business Risks Polarization has intensified in the U.S. and the Western world, impacting businesses significantly. In 2023, Bud Light faced backlash after hiring trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney, losing over a quarter of its sales, a decline from which it has yet to recover. This controversy signaled a broader trend, with more companies in 2024 facing pushback for supporting “woke” values, leading to a pullback on policies like DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion). In 2024, Harley-Davidson, John Deere, and others scaled back or discontinued their DEI programs and support for social events. These changes reflect efforts to align with conservative customer bases, as association with left-wing principles increasingly impacts sales and brand loyalty. The 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer reported that 60% of consumers base purchasing decisions on their politics, highlighting the growing importance of political alignment for brands. Multinational corporations are also facing internal and external pressures from their involvement in geopolitical issues. For instance, Google dealt with internal protests over its $1.2 billion contract with Israel, known as Project Nimbus, which drew criticism for its implications in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Google fired 50 employees, underscoring the internal tensions companies face when navigating contentious political matters. The polarized environment has led to high-stakes consequences for corporate leaders. In 2024, Web Summit CEO Paddy Cosgrave resigned following backlash over his comments on Israel, demonstrating the reputational risks associated with speaking on sensitive issues. Anti-Israel protests spreading across college campuses in the U.S. and beyond also pose long-term risks, as these attitudes may enter the corporate workforce in the future. Some companies have taken a strong stance by refusing to hire students involved in these protests, while others, like Hims & Hers CEO Andrew Dudum, initially supported the protesters, only to face financial backlash as the company’s stock dropped by 8%. For corporations, engaging in political debates—directly or indirectly—can result in reputational damage, financial losses, and disrupted business partnerships. ⚠️ Implications for Corporations 🔁 Changing Market: In 2025, companies will face an increasingly polarized consumer base, particularly in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election and other major events. ⚡ Risk from Inaction: Companies that remain neutral may still face risks based on public perception and consumer interpretations of their actions (or inaction). 🤝 Reputational Harm: Businesses that publicly support political or social issues can expect reputational damage, declines in sales, and potential boycotts. 🚨 Online and Employee Safety: Harassment and threats may arise depending on the issue. 🔗 See Insight Forward's Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 here https://lnkd.in/eJpDKdDj

📽️ IF Explains - The Polarization of Domestic Markets 💡 Want to know more about the polarization of domestic markets - IF Explains! 📺 See our full video podcast on IF's Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 https://lnkd.in/etqKD-P9 🔗 Insight Forward's Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 https://lnkd.in/eJpDKdDj

💡 Our Intelligence Requirements this week focus on the polarization of domestic markets ↔️ Increasing political polarization within countries, particularly in the U.S., creates a challenging environment for MNCs, forcing them to navigate consumer expectations and political sensitivities. 🔗 See Insight Forward's Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 here https://lnkd.in/eJpDKdDj

🚀 The latest edition of PESTLE & MORTAR is now on our website! 🔎 In this edition: President Trump and the Return of Protectionism EU and China Negotiate Tariffs on EVs Businesses Need to Prepare for Conflict Israel Ceasefire Officials Warn of China Targeting Telecoms Data Can Be Used to Track Soldiers and Spies Walmart Reduces DEI Initiatives 📖 Read it here https://lnkd.in/exzj3Wjv ✉️ Want early access? Sign up to receive it a day before everyone else directly in your inbox. https://lnkd.in/e6gH4CSW

The Rise of Nationalism: Implications for Global Corporations The resurgence of nationalism is part of the broader trend of weakening globalization. Nationalism, which prioritizes devotion to one’s nation, culture, and people, is rising worldwide. In Europe, once thought to have moved beyond nationalism with the EU project, a nationalist resurgence is visible. Brexit exemplifies this, as UK voters opted to reclaim control over fiscal and immigration policies. Similar nationalist shifts are occurring in the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary, and Italy, while France and Germany are also contending with right-wing parties challenging the EU’s influence. Historically, European nationalism has been linked to conflict, such as the revolts of 1848, the Serbian assassination that sparked World War I, and the rise of Nazism leading to World War II. While a repeat of this violence is unlikely, the increasing nationalist sentiment suggests that the EU and other supranational bodies could decline over the medium term. Nationalism is also rising in the global south. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP promotes Hindu nationalism, emphasizing cultural ties with Hindu-influenced regions. In Latin America, countries like Brazil, Argentina, and El Salvador have seen the rise of right-wing nationalist leaders. Even the United States is experiencing a populist nationalist wave with former President Trump’s influence on the Republican Party. Nationalism’s global revival, driven by economic and cultural anxieties, challenges multinational corporations (MNCs) as markets become more protectionist, signaling a shift towards a fragmented, less globalized world. ⚠️ Implications for Corporations 📉 Democratic Decline: The rise of nationalism may accelerate democratic backsliding, leading to increased political risks, arbitrary policymaking, and nationalization of industries in some regions. 🤝 Reputational Harm: Companies that collaborate with nationalist parties may face reputational risks internationally, although they may gain favor domestically with nationalist governments. 🫤 Employee Dissatisfaction: Many employees, particularly in technology firms, hold liberal views and may resist or protest corporate decisions aligned with nationalist policies, as seen at companies like Google and Amazon. 🛑 Value Opposition: Corporations that publicly support liberal social policies may face pushback from nationalist governments that oppose these values, potentially affecting their operations and reputation. 🚧 Resource Access Issues: Resource nationalism could impact supply chains, limiting access to essential raw materials and complicating international trade. 🔗 See Insight Forward's Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 here https://lnkd.in/eJpDKdDj

The global resurgence of nationalism, fueled by economic anxieties and cultural anxieties, poses challenges for MNCs operating in increasingly protectionist environments. 🔗 See Insight Forward's Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 here https://lnkd.in/eJpDKdDj

💡 Our Intelligence Requirements this week focus on the global rise in nationalism. 🌍 The global resurgence of nationalism, fueled by economic anxieties and cultural anxieties, poses challenges for MNCs operating in increasingly protectionist environments. 🔗 See Insight Forward's Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2025 here https://lnkd.in/eJpDKdDj