M&A Monitor Ltd

This morning the Dutch internet group Prosus Group announced a recommended offer for Amsterdam-listed Just Eat Takeaway.com (JET). The offer highlights the dramatic shift in valuations in the food delivery sector in the last few years. In 2019, JET was formed when Takeaway.com took over Just Eat plc for £6.5 billion, paying 49.8X its latest year’s EBITDA and £237 per customer, in what some commentators now describe as a bubble. Now Prosus is offering 14.8X 2024 EBITDA and €76 per customer. Nonetheless, this is now a very different market and the offer is still a very good outcome for JET shareholders, who are getting a 63% premium over the latest share price (the 2019 Just Eat deal carried a premium of 44%). #prosus #mergersandacquisitions #manda #takeovers #euronext

This morning the Dutch internet group Prosus Group announced a recommended offer for Amsterdam-listed Just Eat Takeaway.com (JET). The offer highlights the dramatic shift in valuations in the food delivery sector in the last few years. In 2019, JET was formed when Takeaway.com took over Just Eat plc for £6.5 billion, paying 49.8X its latest year’s EBITDA and £237 per customer, in what some commentators now describe as a bubble. Now Prosus is offering 14.8X 2024 EBITDA and €76 per customer. Nonetheless, this is now a very different market and the offer is still a very good outcome for JET shareholders, who are getting a 63% premium over the latest share price (the 2019 Just Eat deal carried a premium of 44%). #prosus #mergersandacquisitions #manda #takeovers #euronext

This morning KKR announced a £1.6bn indicative offer for the London-listed healthcare property group Assura Plc. Its latest proposal of 48p per share, which represents a premium over the last closing price of 28.2%, was rejected by the Assura Board. Where could the price end up? The average premium offered by private equity bidders in UK publics since the start of 2024 (17 deals) is 40.0%, which would give a value per Assura share of 52p. However, KKR says it’s “considering whether there is any merit in continuing to try and engage with the Board.”. It’s worth noting that in 2020, KKR made a preliminary approach for the hospital operator NMC Health Plc but decided not to make an offer. #MergersAndAcquisitions #HealthcareInvestment #PrivateEquity #Assura #KKR #DealMaking #RealEstate #Healthcare #CorporateFinance #UKBusiness #MandA #LondonStockExchange

Yesterday Macquarie Group and BCI, announced a recommended cash offer for the London-listed waste management group Renewi at 870p share, valuing Renewi’s equity at around £707 million. This offer was stated as final, with no increase planned unless a competing bid emerged. This followed an indicative offer on the same terms on 28 November 2024. According to our 8.3 Tracker, ten new shareholders—mostly hedge funds—declared shareholdings above 1% between the two announcements. They are now poised to make a decent return – the 8.3 Tracker calculates that the average price per Renewi share declared on 8.3s (shares and derivatives, long only) was 786 pence in that period, which would give a return of 10.7% at the offer price. For more price data, as well as spreads on completed offers see rule8.3.ma-monitor.co.uk #MergersAndAcquisitions #RecyclingIndustry #Renewi #Macquarie #BCI #Sustainability #HedgeFunds #CorporateFinance #LondonStockExchange

Yesterday witnessed another major Italian banking transaction, as BPER Banca announced a €4.3 billion offer for Banca Popolare di Sondrio. After observing only three deals exceeding €1 billion in the sector from 2008 until November 2024, we have now seen three such transactions in under three months (see table below). Notably, all were share-based offers, all were unsolicited, and each carried a relatively low premium over the most recent share price. Furthermore, there is an additional smaller transaction ongoing, with Banca IFIS pursuing an unsolicited bid for Ilimity Bank. We can now definitively state that long-anticipated consolidation in the Italian banking sector is fully underway. #MergersAndAcquisitions #Banking #FinancialNews #MandA #bperbanca

This morning International Paper completed its £7.3 billion offer for the UK-based packaging group DS Smith, having received conditional clearance from the European Commission last month. Our 8.3 Tracker shows that since the start of the offer period a year ago, the shareholder makeup of DS Smith has changed drastically. Before International Paper’s approach, just 3 hedge funds had declared a combined 4% interest (long positions, including derivatives/options), but by last Friday the shareholder register included some 26 hedge funds with a combined 40%. Notably, 17 of these positions were established after the formal Rule 2.7 offer announcement on 16 April 2024, when deal certainty had increased substantially. #MergersAndAcquisitions #MandA #InternationalPaper #DSSmith #Packaging #CorporateFinance #DealMaking #HedgeFunds #LondonStockExchange

Earlier today, the US-listed automotive group AAM - American Axle & Manufacturing announced a recommended £1.16 billion cash and share offer for the UK’s Dowlais Group plc (formerly GKN Automotive). Under the bid, Dowlais shareholders will receive 49% of the combined group, as well as a 25% premium over Dowlais’s last share price. It was noteworthy that AAM, with a market capitalization of $684 million, is pursuing a much larger target, contributing some cash to retain control. The bid values Dowlais at 4.1X EBITDA, lower than the 5.3X currently being offered for another UK-listed automotive components group TI Fluid Systems. However, the share consideration has potential for future upside; both companies’ share prices have declined over the past year - AAM by 28% and Dowlais by 25%. The increased scale and anticipated cost savings arising from this combination could potentially see the AAM share recover. #manda #mergersandacquisitions #londonstockexchange #dowlais #engineering

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena surprised the market this morning with an unsolicited €13 billion bid for its rival Mediobanca. Coming on the heels of UniCredit’s €10 billion hostile offer for BancoBPM late last year, this move signals that the much-anticipated wave of Italian banking consolidation may be around the corner. For context, between 1999 and 2008, there were 35 Italian banking deals exceeding €1 billion — yet until the BancoBPM bid, only three such deals had materialized since the financial crisis. Could this mark the start of a new era of big-ticket mergers in Italy’s banking landscape? #MergersAndAcquisitions #Banking #FinancialNews #MandA #Mediobanca

This morning DBAY Advisors announced a £350m recommended offer for the AIM-listed pharmaceutical group Alliance Pharma. The move to private ownership stands to reinvigorate Alliance's buy-and-build strategy, which has been constrained by challenges in raising acquisition capital through AIM placings. This adds to a growing trend of departures from AIM, with market observers noting an "exodus" of companies from London's junior market in recent years. Regardless, this is a decent outcome for Alliance shareholders, the 40.9% premium on offer to its last share price is bang-on the median premium seen in UK publics over the past five years. Moreover, DBAY's existing 28% stake, sufficient to block any competing bids, means this will likely be the only offer. #MandA #AIM #MergersandAcquisitions #UKMarkets #Pharmaceuticals #PrivateEquity #CorporateFinance #LondonStockExchange