🛢️How could #DonaldTrump use a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire to increase #oil flows? Our commodities expert Viresh Kanabar thinks outside the box in four scenarios: 1). Persuade OPEC+ / Saudi to increase production 2). Encourage Russian overproduction and undercompliance with OPEC+ quotas 3). Encourage Russian gas exports to Europe to reduce energy costs globally 4). Leverage Russian relations to mediate a deal with Iran Discover his analysis here: https://lnkd.in/e87-DSVg
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About us
Macro Hive is a leading independent provider of global macro research and strategy. Our worldwide user base spans 160 countries and over 1,000 institutions, with clients including 7 of the top 10 largest banks and the top 5 macro and multi-strategy hedge funds, as ranked by Bloomberg. Our mission is to give retail and institutional investors a trusted platform to discover the best investment opportunities in an accessible and concise format. To do this, we combine best-in-class human and artificial intelligence, and our team of seasoned experts features ex-heads from global organizations such as JP Morgan, Nomura, Deutsche Bank, the IMF, and the NY Fed. How Macro Hive Uses Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. At Macro Hive, we believe artificial intelligence and machine learning have an increasingly important role to play in the investment process. Our team of experienced researchers leverage all the latest technologies, including large language models (LLMs) such as those that power chatbots like ChatGPT, to develop innovative, data-driven solutions to complex financial problems. Specifically, we use predictive analytics, deep learning, and natural language processing to build state-of-the-art models and indicators in search of alpha signals across asset classes.
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- Research Services
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- 11-50 employees
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- London, London
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- 2019
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- Economics , Macroeconomics, Financial markets, Equities, commodities, Rates, InterestRates, Machine Learning, Foreign Exchange, Crypto, asset allocation, Wealth management, Research, and Hedge funds
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Updates
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💵 Could #DOGE solve US #fiscal difficulties? Our senior US economist Dominique Dwor-Frecaut highlights: 'Dire warnings exist that DOGE is implementing drastic cuts to federal spending. Yet, the Treasury’s daily cashflow statement shows government spending has continued increasing apace.' Do you agree with #ElonMusk's approach? Read Dominique's full article here: https://lnkd.in/gdQJQ2-j
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Will #China benefit from #Trump-Russia talks to end the war in Ukraine? Our China economist Dr. Liang Ding finds: 'As China’s share in global foreign direct investment (#FDI) dropped almost to zero in 2024, a resumption of US-Russia talks would be a significant confidence boost for Chinese diplomacy'. Explore his analysis here: https://lnkd.in/g8JWuMAs
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In his latest podcast, Bilal Hafeez talks to Max Stier about Trump ripping up government! Listen here: 🐝The Hive: https://lnkd.in/eKUV_rBD 🎧Apple: https://lnkd.in/eycrWwUu 📽YouTube: https://lnkd.in/ebhSrtdv
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Check out our latest Key Events: Is Europe Due for a Q1 Services Inflation Shock? G10 In the US, the key data is: -PCE, personal spending and income – Friday. Personal spending will likely show the consumption weakness implied by last week’s retail sales was overstated. Core PCE will likely print near market consensus of 2.6%. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: -EZ final January CPI – Monday. We have warned services inflation could overshoot in Q1, which appeared to happen in January. Q1 can be volatile, so we avoid reading too much into it, but the full details on Monday should offer clarity. -Preliminary February CPI for Spain, France and Germany. Strong services inflation would feed into our fears that Q1 inflation will overshoot ECB expectations. French services CPI was weak in January – will that reverse in February? Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/e2JM49U6
Key Events: Is Europe Due for a Q1 Services Inflation Shock? - Macro Hive
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In his latest podcast, Bilal Hafeez talks to Max Stier about Trump ripping up government! Listen here: 🐝The Hive: https://lnkd.in/eKUV_rBD 🎧Apple: https://lnkd.in/eycrWwUu 📽YouTube: https://lnkd.in/ebhSrtdv
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Check out our Senior US Rates Strategist Antonio Del Favero give his take on #US financial conditions!
Dollar, Yields & Economy For all the noise around the dollar, related to Trump and the tariffs, economic surprises continue to lead the dollar. Data has been weaker than consensus expected since Trump’s elections, and the dollar has weakened (chart 1). For all the noise around Bessent, related to the 3% deficit with 3% growth, economic surprises continue to lead long end yields (chart 2) and vice versa (chart 3). Economic rationale: lower yields/lower dollar ease financial conditions (FCs), push economic surprises higher and in turn this drive yields higher and dollar stronger; this tends to tighten FCs; the result is a slowdown in economic surprises which bring yields and dollar lower again; then we start again. FCs remain key and lead the economy.
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Check out Richard Jones's latest G10 FX Weekly: Gilt Yield Uptick Is an Opportunity to Build Longs Summary -UK gilt yields have risen across the curve in the past two weeks. -Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed any inflation rise, instead focusing on the UK’s weak growth environment and accelerating disinflation. -Momentum players have increased UK gilts bearishness. Market Implications -We think the rise in gilt yields presents an opportunity to scale into longs, and we like to buy further price dips in gilts. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eweqjuXr
G10 FX Weekly: Gilt Yield Uptick Is an Opportunity to Build Longs - Macro Hive
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In his latest #AI Reflections, Bilal Hafeez tests ChatGPT DeepResearch, Grok 3.0 DeepSearch and Gemini 2.0 Thinking and asks if these models mark the dawn of superintelligence (#AGI)?! Discover his full blog here: https://lnkd.in/entQVRzD
AI Reflections: DeepResearch, Grok and Disappointment - Macro Hive
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Check out our latest Weekly Futures Momentum Model: Models EUR/USD Short Bias Increases, Bund Flips Bearish Summary -Momentum models were down -0.1% over the past week, with equity models up +0.4% WoW, FX models down -0.3% WoW, and rates models down -0.2% WoW. -Momentum models are up +1.0% in aggregate over a three-month time frame, with equity models the best performing (+2.9%). Market Implications -Momentum models are long USD across all major pairs. We remain short USD vs EUR, JPY and CAD (target: 6%, stop: -3%). Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eFUNPHmU
Momentum Models EUR/USD Short Bias Increases, Bund Flips Bearish - Macro Hive
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