Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Podcast discusses Latin America’s Positioning in Critical Minerals Geopolitics 👉 Link to Podcast: https://lnkd.in/e_xd4ZaG 👉 Link to related Publication: https://lnkd.in/e56Kvz-R 🎙️ In this podcast Anders Hove talks to Tom Moerenhout and Victoria Barreto Vieira do Prado about how Latin American countries are navigating the geopolitics of clean energy supply chains. 🎙️ Moerenhout and Vieira do Prado, scholars at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), discuss the challenges #LatinAmerican countries face in moving upstream from #minerals extraction to higher-value parts of the #supplychain. 🎙️ While most countries with #criticalminerals are seeking to localize processing or battery materials production, this is likely to prove difficult in practice. In particular, minerals processing and cathode or anode production are highly specialized fields, and depend heavily on access to key technologies and skills. However, there are reasons for optimism. 🎙️ The authors note that Latin American countries offer several advantages for Chinese, European and other #cleanenergy players, in terms of stability and #ESG (environmental, social and governance) standards, that could give them a leg up in attracting clean energy manufacturing. 🎙️ This podcast is the second in a series on ‘Responding to the #China challenge: Diversification and de-risking in new #energysupplychains.’ Moerenhout and Vieira do Prado’s article, ‘Latin America’s Positioning in Critical Minerals Geopolitics,’ is available in the Oxford Energy Forum Issue 142 on our website. All of our podcasts are also available on #Spotify and #AppleMusic

Olivier Durand-Lasserve latest article in the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Forum discusses industrial policy, net-zero transition and implications for employment in the context of Saudi Arabia’s energy sector 👉 Link to OEF Forum: https://lnkd.in/eDn2hGtQ 💠 In the Net Zero scenario, energy transition jobs increase faster than the national labour force and the number of energy transition jobs per national in the labour force increases 💠 What percentage of this potential will translate into jobs in Saudi Arabia depends on which activities along the value chains can be localized domestically 💠 Jobs in installation, operation, and maintenance will be necessary but industrial policies will be needed to foster the localization of energy transition equipment manufacturing 💠 In Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, dedicated import substitution and what can be dubbed ‘foreign employment’ substitution policies have been implemented to localize activities and provide jobs for nationals 💠 Entire labour market operates under the Nitaqat system, which reserves specific professions for nationals and mandates quotas for Saudi employees across different economic sectors 💠 Additionally, local-content policies, which favour both local value-added and national employment components, are widely used in government procurement where part of the evaluation for equipment and service tenders is based on non-financial cost factors such as value-added contributions, local employment, skills development for nationals, supplier development, and innovation 💠 Similar systems are employed by energy-sector entities such as Aramco, through its In-Kingdom Total Value Added programme and the Saudi Electricity Company, through its Bena program 💠 Such policies can be enforced temporarily to support industries, giving them a domestic market advantage and fostering productivity-enhancing innovation through learning by doing 💠 But if made permanent, local-content policies risk supporting less efficient firms and stifling innovation. Additionally, these policies may deter foreign direct investment, as existing local-content regulations could repel international firms 💠 To succeed, policies must create conditions that foster cost competitiveness and innovation in key energy transition equipment industries #energytransition #industrialpolicy #innovation #localcontent #decarbonization

📢 ANNOUNCING #SMARTCDR Competition WINNERS!! Mission Innovation Carbon Dioxide Removal Mission is proud to announce the winners of the #SMARTCDR Competition, unveiled today at the CLIMIT Summit 2025 #CDR conference in #Larvik, #Norway. Our three winners are: 👉 Equlantic The Auto Spec Carbon Analyser: An integrated measurement package for marine CDR and beyond. 👉 Hokkaido University ERW Simple monitoring, reporting and verification technology for enhanced weathering for acid mine drainage. 👉 TraceCO2 Tracer-based MRV technology for permanent CO2 removal using mineral carbonation in basalts. 💵 The winning teams will receive USD 10,000 each to continue their efforts and reach new heights! The whole Mission is proud of our bright, young and talented winning teams 👏 👍 The Mission is very grateful to our generous sponsors: KAPSARC, KAUST (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology) King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) Elimini Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Carbon Engineering Global CCS Institute Nick Davies Hussein Hoteit Naser Odeh Fahad Alajlan Hasan M. Adam Baylin-Stern Jarad Daniels Amany Alshawi Ph.D. Faisal Al Qurooni K Powe Matt Antes Atul Sharma Charlotte Powell Kirstin Janocha Jørild Svalestuen Liv Lønne Dille Andrew Lenton Mojtaba Seyyedi

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in collaboration with the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the RIFS Research Institute for Sustainability | at GFZ , and Florence School of Regulation is organising a one-day seminar focused on clean hydrogen infrastructure and markets Titled: Enabling a sustainable hydrogen market ramp-up 🔹 This seminar will provide a forum to review the current situation and explore the way forward on these two issues. It will proceed in two parts, each followed by an open dialogue on the key challenges and the next steps in accelerating the hydrogen market ramp-up while ensuring sustainability in the sector. 🔹 The event is scheduled for 24 March 2025, will take place at the Palais des Nations in Geneva, and is intended to kick off UNECE's 2025 Resource Management Week. 👉 Registration link: https://lnkd.in/ggbumPrQ #decarbonization #energy #Hydrogen #netzerocarbon

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Research Paper discusses if the Arctic can be a significant contributor of critical minerals for the global energy transition 👉 Link to Research Paper: https://lnkd.in/d_yZ6Hb4 Key Points: 💠 The demand for critical minerals is rising in support of the low-carbon #energytransition, as well as global economic growth. Despite its hostile environment, the #Arctic is a region with historic and existing mineral production. 💠 This paper assesses the potential of the Arctic to make a significant contribution to the future supply of #criticalminerals. It is one of the first, possibly the first, attempt to do so at a pan-Arctic scale and with a focus on critical minerals for the energy transition. 💠 Even though the mineral geology of the Arctic is not special, various physical and human geographic factors mean that the costs and timelines for mineral extraction from the Arctic are significantly greater than that for many other parts of the world. 💠 Given the scale of the Arctic’s current mining operations and the need to boost mineral production and exports, it is possible that the major growth of production between now and 2034 will be in Russia. 💠 The period beyond the mid-2030s is when the Arctic regions could possibly start to provide a greater share of global supplies of critical minerals. 💠 The speed at which this takes place will depend on factors such as the rate of growth of demand for different critical minerals, the economic competitiveness of critical mineral supplies from Arctic regions compared with those from the rest of the world, and the scale of government and societal support. 💠 The exact locations of the mines will vary between minerals, but Russia and Canada are likely to feature strongly for several minerals on account of their geographic size. 💠 Other countries may become regionally important suppliers for specific minerals, for example Greenland and Sweden for rare earths. Sub-sea exploitation is likely to have started as well. #Arctic #minerals #platinum #palladium #nickel #copper #cobalt #graphite #energytransition

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Comment discusses the factors that can explain the divergence in the oil market outlook for 2025 and the wide set of uncertainties that dictate the narrative in the year ahead. 👉 Link: https://lnkd.in/dSv5t-DW ▫️2025 started with a ‘dominant’ narrative of an #oil #market characterised by a large over-supply and a sharp departure from last year’s oil market dynamics. In contrast, OIES’s Oil Monthly #forecasts the oil market registering a deficit of -240 kb/d in 2025 and OECD stocks remaining below the 5-year average throughout the year. So, what factors can explain this divergence in the oil market outlook for 2025? ▫️Part of this divergence is due to different assessments of oil market balances in 2024, a year which produced a wide range of estimates regarding supply, demand and resulting global balances. ▫️Also, every year brings its new set of #uncertainties and for 2025 these uncertainties are amplified due to #Trump 2.0 policies (which are transactional in nature and constantly changing) and the potential impact of such policies both on demand and supply, as well as on market sentiment. ▫️On the #demand side, there remain different views about global oil demand prospects for 2025, with the emerging risk of #trade wars, a further deterioration in US-China relations, increased #inflation pressures and revision in expectations for monetary easing amplifying the downside risks to #economic #growth and global oil demand. ▫️On the #supply side, the impact of Trump 2.0 policies on non-OPEC+ supply is likely to be limited in 2025, but whether or not non-OPEC+ supply growth can recover some momentum remains an open question. OPEC+ ‘forward guidance’ on production indicates that for 2025 and 2026, it plans to continue on its current ‘production management’ mode, with full compliance and compensation remaining the key focus. ▫️Geopolitical factors continue to feed #uncertainty, with #sanctions at the start of the year coming to the forefront of oil markets, and the flow of data and news about #Russia becoming a major contributor to uncertainty this year. Also, Trump policies such as tightening sanctions on #Iran risk reversing some of the past production gains, but it is difficult to predict by how much. ▫️Alongside changes in supply and demand dynamics, #tariffs and retaliation to tariffs could cause further reshuffling of oil trade flows amplifying uncertainty and distorting markets. ▫️While Trump 2.0 policies are creating uncertainties, the impacts on growth and oil demand may not to be felt this year. Also, potential demand impacts could be offset by supply factors such as #geopolitical disruptions, more cohesive and proactive #OPEC+, and a repeat of the 2024 non-OPEC+ performance, among others. Only couple of months into 2025, these moving parts are already starting to change the dominant narrative of an oil glut. #energy #oott

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies paper explores why China’s success in solar PV might not translate to electrolyzers 👉 Link to OIES paper: https://lnkd.in/ehVvgCq4 Key points: 💠 Energy state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have played a significant role in large-scale, capital-intensive demonstration projects for renewable hydrogen production, both domestically and internationally meanwhile several large private companies are investing in domestic renewable hydrogen production 💠 Most private companies are investing in less capital-intensive hydrogen projects, such as the R&D and manufacturing of hydrogen-related equipment 💠 Top three electrolyzer manufacturers accounted for around 80 per cent of China’s electrolyzer market in 2022 💠 With the exception of PERIC Hydrogen (an SOE) all other companies are privately owned (POE) or foreign controlled 💠 Alkaline electrolyzer technology in China has become relatively mature with high localization rates for the key components, allowing this technology to be used in China’s renewable hydrogen projects 💠 Technological development of China’s Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers still lags behind leading economies such as the EU 💠 For the key components for PEM electrolyzers, China still relies on imports of proton exchange membranes and precious-metal catalysts, whereas alkaline electrolyzers use domestically sourced materials and equipment 💠 Also new policy measures and protectionist policies banning technology transfer and international trade for high-tech equipment could limit the development of PEM electrolyzers in China 💠 Still, Chinese government is seeking to promote R&D and demonstration projects for PEM electrolyzers, despite concerns about import dependence, suggesting that for now it is prioritizing electrolyzer development over technology independence #hydrogen #electrolyzers #china #alkaline #PEM

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies latest China Energy Monthly is now out. ➡️ Each issue of the China Energy Monthly includes a selection of the most recent macro and energy data for China including a number of proprietary data sets as well as a brief commentary about short-term trends. This month's feature piece looks at US-China relations: 🔹 The US-China trade war has officially begun and as it currently stands, the direct economic impact will be limited. 🔹 Escalation is still a possibility, but so is a deal. 🔹 So far, actions taken by both the US and China have been more muted than market expectations. US President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, a far cry from the 60% pledged on the campaign trail. 🔹 Beijing duly responded with an additional 10-15% duties on US energy exports and farm equipment (narrower than the range of goods exposed to US tariffs), export controls on five metals used in defence and clean energy, as well as announcing an anti-trust investigation into Google. 🔹 Both sides can withstand the impact of current tariffs: The hit on the Chinese economy can be absorbed and potentially mitigated by currency devaluation 🔹 Imports of US crude and coal are relatively limited and even LNG can be re-directed or re-traded 🔹 China’s export controls entail a licensing process, not an outright ban and Google has limited revenues in China 🔹All in all, this is an opening salvo. Both sides are leaving room for escalation or talks, but the end point is unclear 🔹What does a deal look like for Trump? Whatever the list of US demands, Beijing would like to know what they are before entering into serious negotiations and, if possible, that the list won’t change. All this means that everything is still up in the air. 👉 For more information, visit: https://lnkd.in/ebB3m9Hh

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Insight discusses Europe’s cobalt supply security outlook and the potential role of the Democratic Republic of the Congo 👉 Link to Energy Insight: https://lnkd.in/e6CYXVcQ Key Points: 💠 Europe needs more cobalt to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, feed its growing lithium-ion battery industry, and secure its green industrial competitiveness. 💠 This research paper asks whether Europe can rapidly and realistically increase cobalt supply security through domestic cobalt production and non-Chinese supply diversification, in particular through cooperation with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), one of the European Union (EU)’s strategic CRM partners and the leading global cobalt producer. #cobalt #CriticalMinerals #SupplyChainResilience #China #derisking #EuropeanUnion #EU #DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo #DRC

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Senior Research Fellow Katja Yafimava has recently been interviewed by CNN Business Arabic | الاقتصادية CNN on European gas supply situation   Key points:   💠 European countries are already buying as much US LNG as they can, outbidding other buyers, 💠 significant additional LNG is not expected to become available until 2026, 💠 securing an agreement on renewing the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine would be the obvious way to transport additional gas to Europe in 2025 but it is not clear whether the European Commission is politically ready for this.   👉 Link to the article: https://lnkd.in/eFFKW5FZ