Record

In a continuation of a recent trend, the US dollar continued to strengthen in December. In our latest monthly commentary, we discuss how central bank action, threats of tariffs and political change have impacted currency markets. Read our insights here: https://lnkd.in/eZtzhsNy #MarketInsights #FX #CentralBanks #CurrencyManagement #Inflation #Politics #Tariffs

As we look ahead to 2025, an interplay of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks dominate the investment landscape. In our latest research note, Andrew Bloomfield, CFA, Head of Macro Research, addresses each key risk in turn and argues how their interconnectedness highlights growing internal imbalances and international tensions. The full report is available here: https://lnkd.in/eAr7tu3K #MarketInsights #FX #Investmentrisks #2025outlook #Currencymanagement

Fuelled by Trump’s victory and hawkish Fed communique, the US dollar strengthened against all but the yen in November within G10. Political disarray in the Eurozone, threats of tariffs, and an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war also contributed to currency moves. Read our insights here: https://lnkd.in/gSF-rfBy #MarketInsights #FX #Tariffs #CentralBanks #CurrencyManagement #Politics #Stimulus

The recent G20 report, “Roadmap towards Better, Bigger, and More Effective Multi-Lateral Development Banks (MDBs)” has been endorsed by 10 MDBs. Among its key recommendations is the critical need to scale local currency lending and enhance hedging solutions for MDBs to better manage their local FX risk. This aligns closely with Record’s EM Sustainable Finance Strategy, which focuses on assisting MDBs with their local currency hedging needs. Despite their growing assets, development issuers in the strategy only have around 5% of their development loans denominated in local currency. We invite stakeholders to join us in scaling up efforts to channel local currency funding where it is needed most and deliver lasting impact on local communities. See below for some of the transformative achievements from this year. The full report is available here: https://lnkd.in/drz3RJnA

We are honoured to feature in IDB Invest’s Annual Allocation and Impact Report. Record’s partnership with IDB Invest has been instrumental in achieving our ambition to access new markets and support underserved communities globally. IDB Invest’s Sustainable Debt Framework contributes to the allocation of proceeds which deliver clear and measurable impact outcomes and have a long-lasting positive impact on local businesses and communities in Latin America and the Caribbean.   Full report available here:  https://lnkd.in/eknCarTg Renata Kreuzig #ImpactInvesting #SustainableFinance #MDBs #SustainbleDebt #IDBInvest

It is great to see MDBs themselves highlighting the ramifications of their hard currency lending in Emerging Markets and the challenges this currency mismatch creates – a topic which we have been very vocal about. The Record EM Sustainable Finance strategy was created to assist MDBs in their local currency hedging needs, enabling them to expand their local currency lending. #LocalCurrencyLending #ImpactInvesting #ESG #EmergingMarkets #MDBs #Sustainability

Following Trump’s victory, the spotlight has shone on China as investors contemplate whether the injection of stimulus measures will be the antidote to its ailing economy and potential tariffs. Andrew Bloomfield, CFA and Patrick Barley weigh up some of the factors at play in our latest research: https://lnkd.in/gSF-rfBy   The potential change in sentiment on Chinese investments and the renminbi has prompted discussions with several of our clients on how risk could be managed. Please contact us to find our more: ClientTeam@recordfg.com #China #Stimulus #FX #Tariffs #Trump

Record’s Emerging Markets and Frontier Investment Team were pleased to work with the Asian Development Bank on this landmark Kyrgyz som-denominated transaction with local currency proceeds expected to benefit female entrepreneurs in rural areas of the Kyrgyz Republic.   We are grateful for the continued partnership with ADB and look forward to expanding our sustainable currency hedging solutions to other markets in the region. We thank all parties involved in this deal.   https://lnkd.in/dyj6s2VA Renata Kreuzig, James Fitzgibbons, CFA, Andreas Koester, Canberk Yalcin, CFA, Asian Development Bank (ADB) #ImpactInvesting #MDBs #FrontierMarkets #Sustainability #UNSDGs

Thank you CNBC Arabia and Hussein Sayed, CFA, CMT and May Ben Khadra for hosting me earlier this week. I am grateful to my colleagues who helped me prepare for this conversation. Our talented Macro team is led by Andrew Bloomfield, CFA, with Gero Patterer, CFA and Patrick Barley as our more recent joiners help our organisation to stay tuned to all macro events across G10 and EM currencies. In my latest discussion, I explored how to think about the trajectory of the US dollar in this post-election period. The likely adoption of expansionary policies could lead to higher inflation, potentially prompting the Fed to adjust the frequency of interest rate changes. Will the recent strength of the US dollar persist, given that it currently stands at historic highs from a valuation perspective? Turning to the Chinese currency, I considered the impact of the recently announced stimulus package against a backdrop of vulnerabilities in China’s real economy and the near certainty of US-imposed tariffs.

The US dollar strengthened against all major currencies in October, in part due to Trump’s increasing odds of regaining the White House. Further afield, weak Eurozone economic data, disappointment surrounding China’s stimulus and Labour’s first budget in power impacted currency markets. Read our insights here: https://lnkd.in/ecXvmzkD #MarketInsights #FX #CentralBanks #CurrencyManagement #Elections #Inflation #Politics #Stimulus