SB+CO reposted this
⁉️ 'I'm sure that [the future] will look very little like we expect, so we should plan accordingly'. Trying to plan for a sustainable future when the only constant is unpredictability: 2025 feels like it's going to be a big year for strategy setting within sustainability. 2025's the year that many businesses have early climate targets materialise. And the politicisation of sustainability (particularly in the US) only make it more difficult for businesses to decide where they want to focus, and how that focus is most likely to drive value for the business. Understanding which signals of change are worth taking notice of in this messy, noisy context is the most important thing to help guide strategy setting. History shows us that the types of shifts that are going to define the low-carbon transition are likely to occur at an unpredictable pace - non-linear, and sometimes exponential. Businesses need to work through not just what's likely to happen if things continue at the same pace, but what could happen if change accelerates or heads off in a new direction. There are lots of good examples of this, but one that I now love comes from a surprising source: a recently declassified US Department of Defence memo on the security landscape through the 20th century...