Welligence Energy Analytics

Ghana Appraisal Alert! Domestic operator SPRINGFIELD GROUP has carried out appraisal activity on its Afina field, after re-entering the Afina-1X discovery well. A Drill Stem Test (DST) produced a maximum of 4,500 bbl/d of oil while Springfield said a mini-DST confirmed the presence of gas/condensate and estimated potential of up to 12,000 boe/d. No guidance was provided on in-place or recoverable reserves. The re-entry is the most significant appraisal of Afina field (discovered in 2019) so far. Eni’s producing oil, gas and condensate Sankofa field is located on the adjoining Offshore Cape Three Points block. In 2020, Ghana said Sankofa and Afina needed to be unitised. Eni and partner Vitol rejected this, citing the need for full appraisal of Afina. Further legal moves ensued. In July 2024, the International Court of Arbitration said the circumstances under which the unitisation order was issued was in breach of the Petroleum Agreement while asserting Ghana’s rights to unitise fields. 

UAE Update! ADNOC Group is reportedly considering a multi-billion-dollar sale of 3-5% of its 90% stake in ADNOC Gas. ADNOC Gas was listed on the ADX last year and has since delivered over 50% total shareholder returns. ADNOC Gas supplies ~60% of the UAE’s sales gas needs and expects to acquire ADNOC’s 60% stake in the country’s Ruwais LNG plant, at cost, when it begins production in 2028.       In July, Ruwais LNG reached FID with Shell, TotalEnergies, bp and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. each agreeing to take 10% project stakes. Meanwhile, this month ADNOC Gas signed a 10-year SPA with India’s GAIL (India) Limited to supply up to 0.52 MMtpa of LNG, from 2026, from the UAE’s Das Island liquefaction facility which started up in 1977.   

It was great to attend #PETEX 2024 last week, my highlights from the conference were: 🗣️ Co-chairing two great sessions alongside Gordon Stove and Adam Borushek, including talks on exploration in Africa and the future of the UKCS 📖 Grabbing a copy of the Diamond Anniversary edition of the GESGB magazine, featuring an article on how valuable mentoring can be with my wonderful mentor Stephen Morse 👥 Finally meeting many of my fellow committee members for the GESGB Young Professionals face-to-face for the first time and discussing plans for our events in 2025

I was privileged to moderate a panel on "Leading the Charge for Sustainable Offshore Operations" at OSEA 2024 featuring distinguished industry panellists: Dr Alf Kare A. (Regional Manager for AMEA - ABB), Ilias Soultanias (Manager of Global Sustainability - American Bureau of Shipping (ABS)) and Ryan Joyce (Operations Lead - BW Offshore). Grateful for the opportunity and discussion we had on vessel & platform efficiency & sustainability, operation trends & investment opportunities, offshore electrification and upcoming emission compliance requirements. Welligence Energy Analytics #sustainability #offshore

The Welligence Energy Analytics team is proud to have joined the Asia Petroleum Geoscience Conference & Exhibition (APGCE) 2024, by PETRONAS, in KL last week. The event provided an excellent platform for geoscience and upstream discussions as well as knowledge-sharing. Throughout APGCE 2024, we extensively engaged with our clients and contacts to share insights around Asia’s rejuvenated upstream landscape. The region’s key energy players remain focused on, increasingly gas-driven, licensing, exploration and deal-making, to help ensure sustainable long-term energy security. Please contact us to further discuss these topics! #WelligenceEnergyAnalytics #APGCE2024

Namibia Exploration Alert! QatarEnergy (QE) has agreed to acquire from TotalEnergies an additional 5.25% in Orange Basin block 2913B (PEL 56) and 4.695% in block 2912 (PEL 91). The acreage is home to the giant Venus discovery as well as the Mangetti find and has extensive remaining exploration potential. The partners are currently drilling the Tamboti well in the north of the acreage while to the south, the Kokerboom and Koekoermor prospects may be drilled in 2025. On approval, QE’s equity will rise to 35.25% (PEL 56) and 33.025% (PEL 91). A host of other wells are planned/being drilled by other operators and will better define the potential of the Namibian Orange Basin. Galp has recently started an E&A campaign on PEL 83, home to the Mopane discovery. Campaigns by Chevron (PEL 90) and Rhino Resources Ltd (PEL 85) are imminent while last week, it was announced Woodside Energy had until May 18, 2025 to exercise an option to take a 56% stake and drill on PEL 87. BW Energy is also looking to progress with its Kudu development and will drill a well in the north of this acreage in 2025.

Indonesia CCUS update! The bp-operated Tangguh LNG consortium that includes INPEX Corporation, JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration, Mitsubishi Corporation, CNOOC International, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), Mitsui & Co., Ltd., Sojitz Corporation, and Sumitomo Corporation has taken FID on the US$7 billion Tangguh Ubadari, CCUS and Compression (UCC) project. This is the first project of its kind in Indonesia and  is expected to start-up in 2028. It will sequester around 15 million tonnes of CO2 from Tangguh in its initial phase. The investment will enhance gas recovery (EGR) through CCUS, unlocking 3 Tcf of gas resource for supplying growing Asian demand. The processed gas will feed into Tangguh LNG’s train 3, which started up in 2023. Since the first train began production in 2009, Tangguh has played a pivotal role in Indonesia’s gas supply, currently contributing over 30% of the country total.

UK drilling update! EnQuest, in its November Operations Update, has announced the planned drilling campaign on its operated Northern North Sea Kraken heavy oil field has been postponed. EnQuest contracted a rig for a two well drilling campaign in 2025, however it failed to agree a plan with JV partner Waldorf Production PLC and the rig contract was terminated. EnQuest is planning to reschedule the infill wells for 2026. Kraken was brought onstream in 2017 and was one of several other large standalone projects developed in the mid-2010s including Mariner and Cygnus. These benefitted from investment allowances and materially boosted both UK upstream investment and production. Kraken has the potential to produce into the 2040s with investment in drilling and efforts to reduce emissions at the Armada Kraken FPSO being considered.

Petrobras’ 2025-2029 Strategic Plan! Petrobras plans to spend US$111 billion over the next 5 years. This is a 9% increase from last year's plan and continues the steady growth in spend since 2021. As expected, E&P remains the focus with US$77 billion (69%) allocated. Of this, US$69.1 billion is earmarked for development and US$7.9 billion dedicated to exploration. While Petrobras (and indeed Brazil) will enjoy strong production growth in the medium term, there is a lack of development projects in the long-term hopper. An aggressive pick up in exploration is necessary to have any chance of turning this around. But considering environmental permit constraints and the high risk of the country's remaining frontier basins, can Petrobras unlock the resources vital for the long-term production?