Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme

"Putin has to think about this: the longer the war goes on -- the more casualties, the more disgruntled soldiers coming home, the more challenging domestic economic conditions -- the more likelihood of domestic social and political unrest. You know, we saw that just over a year ago with the Prigozhin Wagner mutiny - it came from nowhere. Putin cannot discount that."   Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme Associate Fellow Timothy Ash discussing Russia's embattled economy and domestic support for the war on Times Radio.   🎧 Listen to the whole interview: https://lnkd.in/e74mT9Kw

"While ruling elites may succeed in capturing the state, they consistently fail to subjugate its citizens. Time and again, governments that overstay their welcome underestimate the democratic resilience of the Georgian people—a resilience that has only grown stronger over the years."   Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme Senior Research Fellow Natalie Sabanadze analyses the popular mobilisation against the Georgian Dream Party, and its impact on Russia's ongoing support.   Read the whole article: https://lnkd.in/exDqrT4D

"As long as perceived national interests continue to diverge and political stability wavers, particularly in key countries like Germany and France, Europe will struggle to forge a unified and effective response to the war raging on its continent", writes our Associate Fellow Samantha de Bendern for the The Kyiv Independent.   Read the article: https://lnkd.in/eGYWf2jC

This week in Edinburgh | Panel discussion | Maintaining Ukraine's Resilience 🗓️ 16 January, 5:30PM- 6:30PM 📍 Edinburgh Futures Institute (1 Lauriston Place Edinburgh EH3 9EF) We are pleased to announce, in collaboration with Embassy of the United States of America, London and the Scottish Council on Global Affairs, this upcoming research event at the Edinburgh Futures Institute. Russia’s war on Ukraine threatens the very existence of Ukraine as a state. To date, Ukraine’s leadership, its army, and its people have denied Putin his ambition. Western military and economic assistance underpins Ukraine’s success in defending itself and repelling Russia. However, the tipping point in this war has not yet arrived, and it has already exacted a heavy toll on Ukraine’s armed forces, its wider population, its economy and its infrastructure. At this event, experts and representatives from Ukrainian civil society will consider how Ukraine’s allies can maintain support for the Ukrainian state. Speakers: 🔹 Francis Dearnley, Assistant Comment Editor at The Telegraph, Co-host of 'Ukraine: The Latest' podcast 🔹 Anna Kulish, Secretary, Scottish Parliamentary Cross-Party Group on Ukraine 🔹 Orysia Lutsevych OBE, Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme; Head of the Ukraine Forum 🔹 Oleksandra Ustinova 🇺🇦, People's Deputy, Ukraine Chair: Luke March, The University of Edinburgh Details: https://lnkd.in/eE23H72X

💡 New expert comment by Orysia Lutsevych OBE, head of Ukraine Forum at Chatham House 'A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.' Read in full here: https://lnkd.in/ebz94H2U

Hybrid event | Impact of Belarus's sham election on regime stability 📅 22 Jan, 2pm GMT, at Chatham House & online Speakers: 🔹 Ryhor Astapenia, Director of Belarus Initiative at Chatham House 🔹 Alesia Rudnik, Center for New Ideas Chair: James Nixey, Director, Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme Details & registration: https://lnkd.in/ehcjBypn

RESEARCH PANEL | Maintaining Ukraine's Resilience 🗓️ 16 January, 5:30PM- 6:30PM 📍 Edinburgh Futures Institute (1 Lauriston Place Edinburgh EH3 9EF) We are pleased to announce, in collaboration with the United States Embassy in the UK and the Scottish Council on Global Affairs, this upcoming research event at the Edinburgh Futures Institute. Russia’s war on Ukraine threatens the very existence of Ukraine as a state. To date, Ukraine’s leadership, its army, and its people have denied Putin his ambition. Western military and economic assistance underpins Ukraine’s success in defending itself and repelling Russia. However, the tipping point in this war has not yet arrived, and it has already exacted a heavy toll on Ukraine’s armed forces, its wider population, its economy and its infrastructure. At this event, experts and representatives from Ukrainian civil society will consider how Ukraine’s allies can maintain support for the Ukrainian state. Speakers: 🔹 Francis Dearnley, Assistant Comment Editor at The Telegraph, Co-host of 'Ukraine: The Latest' podcast 🔹 Anna Kulish, Secretary, Scottish Parliamentary Cross-Party Group on Ukraine 🔹 Orysia Lutsevych OBE, Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme; Head of the Ukraine Forum 🔹 Oleksandra Ustinova 🇺🇦, People's Deputy, Ukraine For more information, please see the event page: https://lnkd.in/eE23H72X

🎞️ Recordings available | Safeguarding Europe: how to defeat and deter Russia   On the 10th of December, the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme brought together experts and policymakers to discuss how Europe can repel Russian aggression domestically and in Ukraine.   The event featured in-depth analysis and policy recommendations from speakers such as Sir Ben Wallace, Former UK Secretary of State for Defence, Dr Hanna Hopko, former Chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Rasa Juknevičienė MEP, and General Sir James Everard, former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, among esteemed others.   If you were unable to attend in person, recordings of the keynote address by Gabrielius Landsbergis, the then Acting Foreign Minister of Lithuania, as well as the first and last sessions on Russia's intentions towards Europe and Europe's strategy towards Russia, are available on the event page: https://lnkd.in/egranZNS

The loss of Assad will undermine the confidence of potential allies in Russian guarantees. At least, it will be difficult for Moscow to claim that ‘we leave none behind’. https://lnkd.in/eRTgefV5

'The choice of what happens to Ukraine is for the people of Ukraine to make. If we are seen to tell Ukraine to settle on something they are unhappy with, Putin will know that he can do it somewhere else' Listen to Ben Wallace speaking at our 10 December conference at Chatham House. The full recording of his panel is here: https://lnkd.in/e-7xGshq