Rethink Energy

The problem with SAF and the oil majors Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are at the forefront of the aviation industry’s efforts to decarbonize. However, the pace of SAF development has been anything but uniform, with some major players, notably Shell, bp, and Chevron, scaling back or postponing their investments, while companies like Neste are forging ahead. This uneven trajectory raises critical questions about the future of SAF and the viability of large-scale decarbonization in aviation. #SAF #aviation #fuel #renewables

Rethink Energy has published an executive summary on Solar Industry Forecast to 2030 Osama Fawzy Georgy HENEIN, MBA

China’s redoubled export controls China has reiterated and expanded its export controls on gallium, germanium, superhard materials, and antimony to the US, which will “in principle” not be permitted, while graphite will be subject to end-use reviews. This new move is a retaliation for the Biden Administration’s new list of 140 Chinese companies on the “Entity List” for the US’ own semiconductor export controls. This escalation on trade threatens to inconvenience, but not significantly alter, the US’ reshoring agenda for solar, wind, batteries, and other renewable energy equipment industries. #exportcontrols #renewables 

Low-light as perovskite’s angle in China – Free to Read Microquanta has had an 8.6 MW single-junction perovskite solar system installed at Lishui in China, which we estimate is bigger than all other perovskite installations worldwide added together. At the same time, GCL Perovskite, another Chinese company, has raised $69 million for a GW-scale tandem perovskite factory to be built in Kunshan, offering a 26.36% efficiency over 2 square meter area. The latter demonstrates that perovskite investment continues, into both tandem (less popular in China) and single-junction approaches, but it’s the Microquanta installation which may indicate an entire future angle from which to reach market – namely low-light performance in cloudy regions. https://lnkd.in/g6DuKHzr #solar #perovskites #renewables

🎧 Tune in to the Rethink Energy Podcast, with Andries Wantenaar: https://lnkd.in/eVH84P3a - China’s export controls will spur further price increases for high-end #semiconductor and other materials - #Battery prices set for consistent gradual decline through 2025 and beyond - More investments into #perovskite factories and pilot projects – is low-light performance good enough to conquer cloudy regions? #RenewableEnergy #EnergyTransition #Renewables #Solar #BatteryTechnology Rethink Technology Research

UK and EU SAF Mandates kick in from 2025, sector covered for now Starting January 2025, the aviation sector is faced with the first set of restrictions when it comes to operational activity and fuel procurement. 2% of all uplifted fuel in the UK and EU will have to come in the form of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from next year, rising linearly to 10% in 2030 in the UK. The percentage will remain constant for the EU until it jumps to 6% in 2030. Despite early compliance with first-generation HEFA-based SAF (derived from organic feedstocks), future targets present supply and technological challenges. Advanced SAF, such as power-to-liquid fuels (eSAF), becomes mandatory under EU mandates in 2030. However, there is currently no eSAF production globally. The industry is grappling with the need to scale this nascent technology, which involves synthesizing fuel from captured CO2 and green hydrogen. #SAF #aviation #renewables

Where will lithium battery prices go in 2025? Power batteries will soon fall below $100 per kWh, with a 2030 prospect of halving again, or even reaching as little as $30 per kWh, depending on which forecast you put credence in. That’s driven by quality improvements such as the adoption of LFP and cell-to-pack processes, with BYD and CATL already offering LFP batteries as low as $56 per kWh. Click here to learn more: https://lnkd.in/eDjc3M3m #lithium #EVs #battery 

A deep dive into "how the hell" China will produce marketable perovskite solar panels headlines the latest podcast from Rethink Energy The pod goes on to cover EV tariffs and German battery storage and (our favorite part) posit whether and when Tandem PV might produce a "categorically" and "very clearly superior" tandem perovskite solar panel. Take a listen and take in our latest panel photo below: https://lnkd.in/gurrw8q

More Chinese perovskites – but what angle to reach the market? Another spate of Chinese perovskite factory announcements has been made in November, with hundreds of millions of dollars of investment proposed for multi-GW cell and module factories, as well as 100 MW pilot lines. Moreover, Microquanta has seen its first tandem installation commissioned – with 500 kW built in partnership with Three Gorges Group. The question is how exactly perovskites can enter the market in the present situation in which silicon PV is cheaper, more reliable and powerful than ever before – there are many potential angles, but either they are niche enough not to have been conquered by silicon, or they are competing with silicon (via tandem), a difficult road only plausible today in markets like the US where module prices are elevated by tariffs. #solar #perovskites #PV

Australia, UK set to enjoy tariff-free EVs While the EU continues high-level negotiations with China on EV tariffs, and the US braces for President Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda, two other Western countries have struck a very different note – Australia and the UK. In Australia’s case, the Chinese share of its EV market has risen from two-thirds in 2022, to over 80% for the past two years – coming to 200,000 units in 2023. We’re about to see a divergence sharpen between OECD countries – with US EV sales gutted by both tariffs and cuts to incentives such as the IRA’s sales tax credit, Canada also announcing a 100% tariff, while the EU’s tariffs, not yet implemented, may come in at a still steep 40%. In contrast, the UK and Australia, among other countries that don’t place trade barriers in front of China’s EVs, are set to benefit from China’s overcapacity, price war, and constant reinvestment and competition on quality. #EVs #elecrticvehicles #renewables