Emmy Predictions: Reality Categories – Could ‘The Traitors’ Finally De-Throne ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ and Will ‘Survivor’ Host Jeff Probst Land His First Nom Since 2011?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Emmy Predictions:
Reality Categories (Competition Program, Structured, and Unstructured)
Weekly Commentary (Updated: June 20, 2024): It’s a thrilling time for reality TV fans, with established giants and fresh faces all vying for recognition. The battle for supremacy in the reality competition program category is heating up with 60 contenders vying for top honors. Leading the pack are Peacock’s gripping “The Traitors” and CBS’ venerable “Survivor,” which just delivered its most riveting season in over a decade. MTV’s fan-favorite “RuPaul’s Drag Race” seems a shoo-in for one of the five coveted spots. That leaves only two slots open for a host of other well-known series that have received noms in the past, including “The Amazing Race,” “The Voice,” “Top Chef,” and “Nailed It.”
Adding a twist to the competition is Netflix’s newcomer “Squid Game: The Challenge,” which could very well shake things up.
As for the 48 hosts in contention, three familiar faces from last year are back: RuPaul, the “Fab Five” from “Queer Eye,” and Nicole Byer. Notably, this is the first season without Padma Lakshmi at the helm of “Top Chef,” but new host Kristen Kish is proving to be a strong contender. She’s up against Alan Cumming from Peacock, who could potentially dethrone the eight-time consecutive winner RuPaul. And let’s not count out Jeff Probst, who might finally return to the lineup after his last win in 2011 (read Variety’s in-depth interview with the veteran host).
In the structured reality race, 28 shows are competing, including Netflix’s awards darlings “Love is Blind” and “Queer Eye,” and PBS’s perennial nominee “Antiques Roadshow.” HBO/Max’s “We’re Here” made quite a splash in the final days of voting, clinching a win at the Critics Choice Real TV Awards, while Showtime’s critically acclaimed “Couples Therapy” dropped just under the eligibility wire.
The unstructured reality category features 38 shows, many hailing from the ever-dramatic Bravo universe, such as “The Real Housewives of Salt Lake City,” “Ultimate Girls Trip: RHONY Legacy,” “Vanderpump Rules,” and “Below Deck Down Under.” Could recent standout seasons of TLC’s “Sister Wives” and “90 Day Fiancé: The Other Way” pull off a surprise and earn a spot?
Nominations-round voting is open from June 13 and closes on June 24 at 10:00 p.m. PT. Voting for peer group-specific top ten round panels (if applicable) takes place between June 28 and July 8. The Emmy nominations will be announced on July 17. The Creative Arts and Governors Gala ceremonies will occur over two nights on Sept. 7-8. The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will air on ABC on Sunday, Sept. 15.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Reality Competition Program
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Survivor” (CBS) 2 “The Traitors” (Peacock) 3 “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV) 4 “The Amazing Race” (CBS) 5 “Squid Game: The Challenge” (Netflix) Next in Line 6 “Top Chef” (Bravo) 7 “The Voice” (NBC) 8 “The Golden Bachelor” (ABC) 9 “Chopped” (Food Network) 10 “Is It Cake?” (Netflix) Outstanding Reality or Competition Program -
Host for a Reality or Competition Program
Image Credit: Bravo And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 Alan Cumming — “The Traitors” (Peacock) 2 Jeff Probst — “Survivor” (CBS) 3 RuPaul Charles — “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV) 4 Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness — “Queer Eye” (Netflix) 5 Kristen Kish — “Top Chef” (Bravo) Next in Line 6 Nicole Byer — “The Big Nailed! Baking Challenge” (Netflix) 7 Guy Fieri — “Diners, Drive-ins and Dives” (Food Network) 8 Phil Keoghan — “The Amazing Race” (CBS) 9 Ryan Seacrest — “American Idol” (ABC) 10 Mark Cuban, Lori Greiner, Kevin O’Leary, Barbara Corcoran, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John — “Shark Tank” (ABC) Outstanding Host for Reality or Competition Program -
Structured Reality Program
Image Credit: Courtesy of Greg Endries/HBO And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Queer Eye” (Netflix) 2 “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS) 3 “Love is Blind” (Netflix) 4 “We’re Here” (Max) 5 “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network) Next in Line 6 “Shark Tank” (ABC) 7 “Couples Therapy” (Showtime) 8 “The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman” (Netflix) 9 “60 Days In” (A&E) 10 “Kitchen Nightmares” (Fox) Outstanding Structured Reality Program -
Unstructured Reality Program
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Series 1 “Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) 2 “RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV) 3 “Love on the Spectrum U.S.” (Netflix) 4 “Selling Sunset” (Netflix) 5 “The Jerrod Carmichael Reality Show” (Max) Next in Line 6 “Life Below Zero” (National Geographic) 7 “Sister Wives” (TLC) 8 “Vanderpump Rules” (Bravo) 9 “90 Day Fiancé: The Other Way” (TLC) 10 “Below Deck Down Under” (Bravo) Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program -
Eligible Titles (Reality Categories)
Image Credit: ©TLC/Courtesy Everett Collection **Officially submitted and on the Emmy nominations ballot.
Reality Competition Program
- “America’s Got Talent” (NBC)
- “American Ninja Warrior” (NBC)
- “The Voice” (NBC)
- “The Big Nailed It Baking Challenge” (Netflix)
- “The Circle” (Netflix)
- “Is it Cake?” (Netflix)
- “Squid Game: The Challenge” (Netflix)
- “Love Island” (Peacock)
- “Make Me Scream” (Prime Video)
- “The Traitors” (Peacock)
- “Alone” (History)
- “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
- “America’s Funniest Home Videos” (ABC)
- “America’s Got Talent: Fantasy League” (NBC)
- “American Idol” (ABC)
- “American Ninja Warrior” (NBC)
- “Battle on the Beach”
- “Bet on Black”
- “The Big Nailed It Baking Challenge” (Netflix)
- “Bobby’s Triple Threat” (Food Network)
- “The Boulet Brothers’ Dragula” (AMC)
- “Buddy Games”
- “Celebrity Family Food Battle”
- “The Challenge: Battle for a New Champion” (MTV)
- “Chopped” (Food Network)
- “Claim to Fame” (ABC)
- “Crime Scene Kitchen”
- “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)
- “Deal or No Deal Island”
- “Framer Wants a Wife”
- “The GOAT”
- “The Golden Bachelor” (ABC)
- “Gordon Ramsay’s Food Stars” (Fox)
- “The Great American Baking Show”
- “The Great American Recipe”
- “House of Villians” (E!)
- “I Can See Your Voice”
- “Ink Master”
- “Is it Cake?” (Netflix)
- “Lego Masters” (Fox)
- “Love Island” (Peacock)
- “Make Me Scream” (Prime Video)
- “The Masked Singer” (Fox)
- “Morimoto’s Sushi Master”
- “Naked and Afraid: Last One Standing”
- “Next Level Chef” (Fox)
- “OMG Fashun”
- “Penn & Teller: Fool Us”
- “Rock the Block”
- “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
- “Secret Chef” (Hulu)
- “So You Think You Can Dance” (Fox)
- “Squid Game: The Challenge” (Netflix)
- “Survivor” (CBS)
- “Top Chef” (Bravo)
- “Tough as Nails” (CBS)
- “Tournament of Champions”
- “The Traitors” (Peacock)
- “Ugliest House in America”
- “The Voice” (NBC)
Host for a Reality or Reality Competition Program
- Tim Allen — “Chopped” (Food Network)
- Will Arnett — “LEGO Masters”
- Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski, Jonathan Van Ness — “Queer Eye” (Netflix)
- David Bromstad — “My Lottery Dream Home”
- Nicole Byer — “The Big Nailed! Baking Challenge” (Netflix)
- Nick Cannon — “The Masked Singer” (Fox)
- David Chang, Chrissy Teigen, Joel Kim Booster — “Chrissy & Dave Dine Out”
- RuPaul Charles — “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
- Zach Cherry, Casey Wilson — “The Great American Baking Show”
- Morris Chestnut — “Rebuilding Black Wall Street”
- Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond, James May — “The Grand Tour: Eurocrash”
- Terry Crews — “America’s Got Talent: Fantasy League”
- Mark Cuban, Lori Greiner, Kevin O’Leary, Barbara Corcoran, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John — “Shark Tank” (ABC)
- Alan Cumming — “The Traitors” (Peacock)
- Carson Daly — “The Voice” (NBC)
- Mikey Day — “Is It Cake?” (Netflix)
- Cat Deeley — “So You Think You Can Dance” (Fox)
- Josh Duhamel — “Buddy Games”
- Rob Dyrdrek — “Ridiculousness” (MTV)
- Guy Fieri — “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
- Bobby Flay — “Bobby’s Triple Threat” (Food Network)
- Julia Fox, Law Roach — “OMG Fashun”
- Nikki Garcia, Brie Garcia — “Twin Love” (Prime Video)
- Jaida Essence Hall, Priyanka Suknanan, Sasha Velour, Timothy “Latrice Royale” Wilcots — “We’re Here” (Max)
- Matt Iseman, Akbar Gbajabiamila, Zuri Hall — “American Ninja Warrior” (NBC)
- Phil Keoghan — “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
- Phil Keoghan — “Tough as Nails”
- Kristen Kish — “Top Chef” (Bravo)
- Nick Lachey, Vanessa Lachey — “Love is Blind” (Netflix)
- TJ Lavin — “The Challenge: Battle for a New Champion” (MTV)
- Joel Madden — “Ink Master”
- Joe Manganiello — “Deal or No Deal Island”
- Joel McHale — “House of Villains” (E!)
- Jennifer Nettles — “Farmer Wants a Wife”
- Jesse Palmer — “The Golden Bachelor” (ABC)
- Sangita Patel — “Love & Translation”
- Ty Pennington — “Rock the Block”
- Jeff Probst — “Survivor” (CBS)
- Gordon Ramsay — “Next Level Chef”
- Retta — “Ugliest House in America”
- Alfonso Ribeiro — “America’s Funniest Home Video”
- Alfonso Ribeiro, Julianne Hough — “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)
- Nev Schulman, Kamie Crawford — “Catfish: The TV Show” (MTV)
- Drew Scott, Jonathan Scott — “Celebrity IOU”
- Ryan Seacrest — “American Idol” (ABC)
- Jon Taffer — “Bar Rescue”
- The Boulet Brothers — “The Boulet Brothers’ Dragula” (AMC)
- Daniel Tosh — “The GOAT”
Structured Reality
- “All Elite Wrestling Dynamite” (TBS)
- “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
- “Bar Rescue”
- “Best of the Worst”
- “Botched”
- “Catfish: The TV Show” (MTV)
- “Celebrity IOU”
- “Chrissy & Dave Dine Out”
- “Couple to Throuple” (Peacock)
- “Couples Therapy” (Showtime)
- “Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
- “Enamorandonos: Recargado”
- “Encounter Party”
- “The Golden Wedding” (ABC)
- “Kitchen Nightmares” (Fox)
- “Love is Blind” (Netflix)
- “The Magic Prank Show with Justin Willman” (Netflix)
- “My Lottery Dream Home”
- “The Prank Patel”
- “Queer Eye” (Netflix)
- “Rebuilding Black Wall Street”
- “Ridiculousness” (MTV)
- “Shark Tank” (ABC)
- “60 Days In” (A&E)
- “Special Forces: World’s Toughest Test”
- “Twin Love” (Prime Video)
- “The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On” (Netflix)
- “We’re Here” (Max)
Unstructured Reality
- “Below Deck Down Under” (Bravo)
- “Big Freedia Means Business”
- “The D’Amelio Show”
- “Dance Moms: The Reunion”
- “Deadliest Catch”
- “The Family Stallone”
- “Friends in Low Places”
- “Gold Rush”
- “Grand Cayman: Secrets in Paradise”
- “The Grand Tour: Eurocrash”
- “The Grand Tour: Sand Job”
- “Jerrod Carmichael Reality Show” (Max)
- “Jersey Shore Family Vacation” (MTV)
- “The Kardashians” (Hulu)
- “Kevin Hart’s Muscle Car Crew”
- “The Last Cowboy”
- “Life Below Zero” (National Geographic)
- “Love on the Spectrum U.S.” (Netflix)
- “Love Undercover”
- “Luann & Sonja: Welcome to Crappie Lake” (Bravo)
- “The McBee Dynasty: Real American Cowboys”
- “Meet Me in Rome”
- “Naked and Afraid”
- “90 Day Fiancé: The Other Way” (TLC)
- “Paris in Love”
- “Project Greenlight: A New Generation”
- “The Real Housewives of Salt Lake City” (Bravo)
- “The Real Housewives Ultimate Girls Trip: RHONY Legacy” (Bravo)
- “Running Wild with Bear Grylls: The Challenge” (National Geographic)
- “RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV)
- “Selling Sunset” (Netflix)
- “Sister Wives” (TLC)
- “Summer House” (Bravo)
- “Theresa Caputo: Raising Spirits”
- “Unlocked: A Jail Experiment”
- “Vanderpump Rules” (Bravo)
- “Vanderpump Villa” (Bravo)
- “Welcome to Wrexham” (FX)
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More Information (Reality Programs)
Image Credit: Griffen Nagel/Bravo 2023 category winners:
Outstanding Reality Competition Program: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
Outstanding Host for a Reality or Competition Program: RuPaul, “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
Outstanding Structured Reality Program: “Queer Eye” (Netflix)
Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program: “Welcome to Wrexham” (FX)2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs identifying as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Prediction Categories
2024 Primetime Emmy Prediction Categories About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.