Oscar Predictions for Best Director — Sean Baker Ascends in Race Following DGA and PGA Wins for ‘Anora’
Can Brady Corbet's 'The Brutalist' or James Mangold's 'A Complete Unknown' challenge the new frontrunner?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Best Director commentary (Updated Feb. 13, 2025): Sean Baker just took home the Directors Guild of America’s top prize for “Anora,” a win that historically all but guarantees an Oscar victory. Add in his Producers Guild of America win, and it’s safe to say Baker is the clear frontrunner heading into the final stretch.
But the door isn’t completely shut in a season as unpredictable as this one. Brady Corbet has dominated the precursor circuit for “The Brutalist” and could shake things up with a BAFTA win, putting himself back in the conversation. Meanwhile, Jon M. Chu surprised at Critics Choice with a win for “Wicked” — despite not even being nominated for the Oscar. If nothing else, it proves this race isn’t as locked as it seems.
Then there’s the wild-card contender: James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown.” The Bob Dylan biopic’s director wasn’t nominated at the BAFTA, Critics Choice, or the Golden Globe Awards — a historically insurmountable obstacle in the modern era. No director has won an Oscar without at least one of those major nods. The last time a director won without a Globe nom was Roman Polanski for “The Pianist” (2002), who won a BAFTA. But considering this season has already shattered every awards stat in the book, what’s one more curveball for the road?
BAFTA Prediction for Director: Sean Baker (“Anora”)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
-
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection -
More Information
2024 category winner: Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) Variety via Getty Images About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
