Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Big Budget Blockbusters, IP and Sequels Headline Promising Slate of Contenders

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Weekly Commentary (Updated July 1, 2024): As we navigate the cinematic waters of 2024, the horizon shimmers with the promise of captivating films vying for Oscar glory. The year’s second half has officially set sail, bringing a tantalizing array of potential award contenders. It’ll follow first-half standouts such as Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” and Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune Part Two,” each hoping to maintain their buzz through year’s end.

The landscape of this year’s contenders is a fascinating tapestry. Big-budget studio productions, franchise entries, and sequels are all vying for one of the coveted ten Best Picture slots, creating an arena notably lacking in the usual indie darlings. Yet, the fall festivals—Telluride, Toronto, and Venice—always have a knack for unveiling dark horses that can surge to the forefront of the Oscar race overnight.

Among the heavyweight contenders is Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II,” a follow-up to the 2001 Best Picture winner. This film, rumored to be a technical marvel that could put the 87-year-old veteran filmmaker in the running for his first trophy, boasts a star-studded cast featuring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, and the legendary Denzel Washington. These promising performances could dominate the awards season.

Warner Bros. brings a formidable sequel trio to the table: Denis Villeneuve’s much-anticipated “Dune Part Two,” Todd Phillips’ upcoming jukebox musical “Joker: Folie à Deux,” and Tim Burton’s “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.” The latter could surprise many, from early murmurs suggesting “it’s an awards movie.” It could earn Michael Keaton a spot in the acting categories, perhaps mimicking a similar run to Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”), depending on how the competition shapes up.

The allure of sequels in this Oscar race is intriguing, especially considering the recent success of “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Top Gun: Maverick,” both of which were nominated just two years ago but lost to the groundbreaking “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Streamers are also gearing up for a thrilling season. Apple is betting big on “Blitz,” a film directed by “12 Years a Slave” helmer Steve McQueen and starring Saoirse Ronan and Harris Dickinson, already being hailed as a presumptive favorite. Netflix juggles several high-stakes projects, including “The Piano Lesson,” adapted from August Wilson’s work directed by first-timer Malcolm Washington. They’ll also be steering the Cannes acquisition “Emilia Pérez” by Jacques Audiard, which could continue the trend of non-English language performances garnering best picture attention.

Neon is riding high on the success of Sean Baker’s “Anora,” which won the Palme d’Or at Cannes. They are also pinning hopes on “The Seed of the Secret Fig,” which nabbed a special screenplay citation at Cannes, and “The End,” a post-apocalyptic musical from Joshua Oppenheimer that could turn heads.

Late-year releases could also shake things up if their filmmakers wrap up in time. Pedro Almodóvar’s English-language debut “The Room Next Door,” starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton, and James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” featuring Timothée Chalamet, are both on the radar.

Meanwhile, other intriguing projects are still seeking distribution. Guadagnino’s drama “Queer,” starring Daniel Craig, has been creating a buzz among distributors. Pablo Larraín’s “Maria,” a poignant portrayal of opera singer Maria Callas’ final days with Oscar winner Angelina Jolie, also holds significant potential.

I’m interested to see how films of specific genres that often get overlooked can perform in the Oscar race. That includes DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot,” which will be looking for more outside of best animated feature, Mubi’s “The Substance,” a body-horror riot featuring a career-best turn from Demi Moore and Focus Features’ “Piece by Piece,” an animated-documentary on the life of music mogul Pharrell Williams.

As the second half of 2024 unfolds, the race is on. Each film, from blockbuster sequels to intimate dramas, is positioning itself to capture the Academy’s attention. Buckle up for an exhilarating awards season, where surprises lurk around every corner, and every reel spun could be a ticket to cinematic immortality.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.

The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is still undated.