Oscars: ‘Conclave,’ ‘The Substance’ and Sean Baker Among Predicted BAFTA Winners as Final Voting Gets Underway
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Overall Oscars commentary (Updated Feb. 11, 2025): Final Oscar voting is underway.
Since July, six films have occupied the No. 1 spot on Variety’s best picture charts, “Anora” among them. The rest were all considered part of the “Big Six,” which many felt were seen as a possible winner. And now, with PGA and DGA, Sean Baker’s $6 million indie could be the one to bring home the second statuette for Neon after “Parasite” (2019) became the first non-English language best picture winner.
With final Oscar voting set for Feb. 11–18, the timing of “Anora’s” victories couldn’t be better. But it’s not over until the envelope is opened.
This has been a season of shifting tides, resembling the Pope-selection intrigue of “Conclave,” with each new controversy or awards snub seemingly reshuffling each new frontrunner: “Anora” (lack of an intimacy coordinator controversy), “The Brutalist” (use of A.I. backlash), “Emilia Pérez” (Karla Sofía Gascón’s tweets), “A Complete Unknown” (missed Oscars’ editing) and “Wicked” (missed directing, screenplay and BAFTA Best Film).
In the end, it might just be “Anora,” the story of a Brooklyn sex worker entangled with a Russian oligarch’s son, that delivers the unexpected — but fitting — Hollywood ending.
If Baker triumphs, he stands to make history. Nominated for best picture, director, original screenplay, and editing, he could become the first person to win four Oscars in a single night since Walt Disney at the 26th Academy Awards in 1954. Bong Joon-ho nearly pulled off the feat with “Parasite,” but because international feature is officially awarded to the country rather than the director (even though their name is on the statue).
In a rapidly evolving Hollywood landscape, where traditional models are constantly in flux, perhaps the Academy finds itself drawn to the $6 million indie made by the filmmaker who shot his breakout film, “Tangerine,” on an iPhone.
The BAFTAs are this weekend. The final predictions on where the British voting bloc could go are below.
Final BAFTA Predictions
Best Film: “Conclave” (alt. “Anora”)
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora” (alt. Brady Corbet)
Leading Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown” (alt. Ralph Fiennes)
Leading Actress: Demi Moore, “The Substance” (alt. Marianne Jean-Baptiste)
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” (alt. Edward Norton)
Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave” (alt. Zoe Saldaña)
Original Screenplay: “The Substance” (alt. “Anora”)
Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave” (alt. “Nickel Boys”)
Production Design: “Wicked” (alt. “The Brutalist”)
Cinematography: “Nosferatu” (alt. “The Brutalist”)
Costumes: “Wicked” (alt. “Nosferatu”)
Film Editing: “Conclave” (alt. “Anora”)
Makeup and Hair: “The Substance” (alt. “Wicked”)
Score: “Conclave” (alt. “The Brutalist”)
Sound: “The Substance” (alt. “Wicked”)
Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two” (alt. “Better Man”)
Casting: “A Complete Unknown” (alt. “Anora”)
Animated Feature: “Flow” (alt. “The Wild Robot”)
Children’s and Family Film: “The Wild Robot” (alt. “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”)
Documentary Feature: “No Other Land” (alt. “Black Box Diaries”)
Film Not in the English Language: “Emilia Pérez” (alt. “I’m Still Here”)
Rising Star: Marisa Abela (alt. Mikey Madison)
Oustanding British Film: “Conclave” (alt. “Kneecap”)
WGA Predictions
Original Screenplay: “Anora” — Sean Baker (alt. “A Real Pain” and “Challengers”)
Adapted Screenplay: “A Complete Unknown” — James Mangold and Jay Cocks (alt. “Nickel Boys” and “Wicked”)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
-
Best Picture
Image Credit: Neon “Anora” (Neon) ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Director
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker ***
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Coralie Fargeat
“The Substance” (Mubi)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) -
Actor
Image Credit: A24 Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Sebastian Stan
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) -
Actress
Image Credit: Mubi Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore ***
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Jeremy Strong
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Felicity Jones
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
“The Substance” (Mubi) ***
Coralie Fargeat -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Focus Features “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Pixar “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) *** -
Production Design
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Cinematography
Image Credit: Focus Features “The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features) *** -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Film Editing
Image Credit: A24 “Anora” (Neon) ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: A24
“A Different Man” (A24)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Sound
Image Credit: Netflix “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) -
Original Score
Image Credit: DreamWorks Animation “The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) -
Original Song
Image Credit: Walt Disney Pictures
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing” (A24) -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Kino Lorber “Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“No Other Land” (No U.S. Distribution) ***
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films) -
International Feature
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics “Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix)
“Flow” from Latvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon) -
Animated Short
Image Credit: Voce Spettacolo “Beautiful Men” (Miyu Distribution)
“In the Shadow of Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Magic Candies” (Toei Animation)
“Wander to Wonder” (Bantam Film) ***
“Yuck!” (Miyu Distribution) -
Documentary Short
Image Credit: MTV Documentary Films “Death by Numbers” (Cuomo Cole Productions)
“I Am Ready, Warden” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Incident” (Hypnotic Pictures)
“Instruments of a Beating Heart” (The New York Times OpDocs/Cineric Creative)
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Netflix) -
Live Action Short
Image Credit: Antitalent Produkcija “Anuja” (Netflix) ***
“I’m Not a Robot” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Ranger” (Six Feet Films)
“A Lien” (No U.S. Distribution)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Manifest) -
More Information (All Categories)
Getty About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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Awards Circuit Columns and Podcast Archives (2024-2025)
Image Credit: Matt Sayles for Variety Awards Circuit Film Columns, Features, and News Exclusives
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Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)
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- ‘Nickel Boys’ Director RaMell Ross on Making the Film and Being Open to Working With Marvel Producers ‘Willing to Challenge Their Beliefs’
- Monica Barbaro on Portraying Joan Baez in ‘A Complete Unknown,’ Having a Mixed Identity in Hollywood and Being Mentored by Tom Cruise
- Cynthia Erivo Reveals She Co-Wrote an Original Song for Elphaba in ‘Wicked: For Good’: ‘When We Filmed It, the Entire Crew Was in Tears’
- Steve McQueen on Casting Saoirse Ronan in ‘Blitz’ and Why Cinema ‘Is the Best Medium in the World’
- Denzel Washington on ‘Gladiator 2’ and Calling Ryan Coogler to Apologize for Spilling ‘Black Panther 3’ News
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- Guy Pearce on ‘The Brutalist’ Shocker, Watching Christopher Nolan Win the Oscar and the ‘L.A. Confidential’ Sequel That Almost Happened
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