Live Music Business Outlook: 2024 Has a Tough Act to Follow

Note: This article is an extension of the VIP+ special report “State of the Live Music Business,” for subscribers only.

With a record year for ticket revenues coming to a close in the live music business, the industry is facing a high-class problem: Can 2024 possibly measure up to the past 12 months?

Eric Frankenberg, Billboard’s senior charts/data analyst, put it simply in a recent VIP+ webinar discussing the special report “State of the Live Music Business”: “2023 is offering a very tough comparison,” so who knows?”

The global ticket gross for the top 100 tours of 2023 reached $9.17 billion, up 46 percent over the the prior year, according to Pollstar.  And with the release of their successful tour films, Taylor Swift and Beyoncé have redefined the longevity (and profit) of tours.

Of course, the concert box office generally hinges on how successful the lineup is on stages around the world. Swift’s Eras Tour is now extending its run deep into 2024, but she’s not the only A-list act joining next year’s slate. Madonna, Morgan Wallen and Blink 182 are just a few of the highly anticipated artists to hit the road.

Catherine Yi, a UTA talent strategy executive who participated in the webinar, forecasted that the industry will be able to sustain itself, as over half of those who frequent live music events anticipate their own attendance to increase in the next 12 months.

But do rising ticket prices or the state of the U.S. economy pose a threat to the business? Yi said no.

“We received a surprisingly high stat on how willing people are to open credit cards,” she cited, with 34 percent of live musicgoers opening a credit card for concert/musical festival presale tickets. “I don't know if that’s the best economic decision, but we are seeing that these people are willing to splurge. They’re gonna do what they have to to attend the show, student loans or not.”

But not everyone was as sanguine. Variety executive music editor Jem Aswad questioned what’s to come beyond 2024.

“Because every major artist is on the road ... by the end of 2024, a lot of these artists will have completed runs, and you have to think that some of the demand would have been largely satisfied,” said Aswad. “Yes, the pandemic has basically ended. We‘re back out seeing shows, but can that continue? Are we going to see skyrocketing record numbers every single year?”

The question remains to be answered.

Now dig into the VIP+ subscriber report, with updated data ...