These are the 6 most important stock market charts technical experts will be watching in 2025
Investors are focused on the potential extension of the stock market's bull rally heading into 2025.
Wall Street experts highlighted the most important stock market charts to watch into next year.
From interest rates to software stocks, here's what Wall Street's top technical experts are watching.
After strong back-to-back years for the stock market, investors are fixated on whether the bull rally will extend into 2025.
To get a better idea of what investors should be watching next year, Business Insider reached out to the top technical experts on Wall Street and asked them: What is the most important stock market chart heading into 2025?
From interest rates to software stocks, here's what they're watching.
Will Tamplin, Fairlead Strategies
"In December, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) nearly met a measured move projection of 6118, which was targeted by a breakout in Q1 of this year. The measured move projects the uptrend from 2020-2021 off the 2022 low. This indicates that a prolonged period of consolidation is likely in the first half of 2025. The monthly MACD histogram suggests that momentum behind the uptrend has started to wane in Q4, further supporting corrective price action to start 2025," Will Tamplin, senior analyst at Fairlead Strategies, told Business Insider.
Ryan Detrick, Carson Group
"Bull markets are like cruise ships: once they get moving, they can be hard to stop. Going back 50 years, once a bull market made it into the third year, history said there could be a lot more left. In fact, the five most recent bull markets that made it this far lasted at least until their fifth birthday, with an average gain of eight years, so don't give up on the bull just yet in 2025," Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Group told Business Insider.
Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler
"The 10-year UST yield has reversed a long-term secular downtrend off the 1981 highs. The higher high above 3.25 ('18 highs) also validates the multi-decade reversal. Historically, post uptrend or downtrend reversals, a retest typically occurs," Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, told Business Insider.
He added: "We suspect this retrace/pull back to prior resistance to find support around 3.00% - 3.50% 2H2025. A decisive break below that level would suggest the economy is in serious trouble. Until then, don't forget that slow and moderate Fed rate cuts have historically been bullish for equities, especially for Small and Mid-Cap stocks."
Ari Wald, Oppenheimer
"The most important chart we're watching heading into 2025 is the performance of high-momentum stocks vs. low-momentum stocks, loosely defined as the top winners vs. top losers over a prior 12-month basis. We recently reported that the momentum factor has historically outperformed in the period between the cycle's broadest moment, when the most stocks are participating, and the market's final peak. Looking ahead, we see two potential scenarios: 1) the bull cycle broadens further driven by "catch-up" into low-momentum (losers); this would be a bullish scenario for all stocks. Or, 2) the bull cycle narrows weighed down by low-momentum, and the MO factor continues to outperform," Ari Wald, managing director at Oppenheimer, told Business Insider.
Jay Woods, Freedom Capital Markets
"2025 is the show-me year when it comes to technology. Investors want results, and software stocks are ready to lead that charge. Technically, we experienced a beta full-rounded bottom base over a two-year stretch in 2022-23. It broke out in 2024 but spent most of that time consolidating slightly higher before finally making its upward move in late 2024 with a beautiful upside gap (circled) in October," Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, told Business Insider.
He added: "That gap can be used as a perfect risk/reward set-up. If there is further weakness into 2025 that 95 level should be the downside risk area to watch. The upside targets seem much more likely, making this a sector and trade to watch for 2025. Look for the sector to not only eclipse its recent all-time highs but to add to them by some 20%."
David Keller, Sierra Alpha Research
"I would be watching measures of market breadth, including the advance-decline line, the percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average, and new 52-week highs and lows. The post-election rally in Q4 has featured narrow leadership, with the mega-cap growth stocks providing most of the upside while other stocks have struggled. Continued breadth deterioration into early 2025 could suggest a much weaker start to the year and an increased likelihood of a corrective move in Q1," David Keller, chief market strategist at Sierra Alpha Research, told Business Insider.
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