2018 election and the formation of a national unity government

Cooperation among the factions was ultimately unimpeded by the incident in Saudi Arabia and, on May 6, 2018, Lebanon held its first legislative election since 2009. It was the first election to award seats proportionally rather than having all the seats in a particular district go to the winning party. Turnout was less than 50 percent of registered voters overall and as low as 32 percent in some districts of Beirut. Hariri’s party lost 12 seats—partly because of the concessions he had made to rival parties in order to break the political stalemate of 2014–16—and his March 14 bloc lost its majority in the parliament. The March 8 bloc, consisting of Hezbollah and its allies, received a majority of seats, making Hezbollah politically dominant for the first time. Top-level positions in the parliament nonetheless remained largely the same, including Hariri as prime minister-designate, though a March 8 politician was elected to the post of deputy speaker for the first time since that bloc’s formation.

The results of the election complicated efforts to form a government agreeable to all major factions, however. Among the primary obstacles was representation in the cabinet between rival Christian political parties. President Aoun’s party, the largest Christian party in parliament and an ally of the March 8 bloc, said the rival Christian party, Lebanese Forces (LF), deserved only a third of the Christian representation in the cabinet, in proportion with the election results. LF, however, demanded more representation in the cabinet after having doubled its parliamentary representation in an electoral surge. After LF conceded and agreed to join the government without any additional cabinet posts on October 29, a new obstacle emerged with Hezbollah demanding the March 8 bloc receive one of the cabinet seats reserved for Sunni representation.

The new standoff continued to delay the formation of a government into 2019 even as looming crises added urgency to find a resolution. The ongoing debt crisis grew worse, as the lagging cabinet negotiations prevented the government from managing the country’s finances. Consumers and investors alike began spending considerably less as confidence in the future of Lebanon’s economy decreased. In late November Lebanon’s finance minister announced that the government had expended its budget for 2018. Meanwhile, tensions with Israel simmered as it uncovered tunnels that crossed the border from Lebanon into Israel, which Israel claimed had been dug by Hezbollah for the purpose of launching a future attack on Israel. Israel said it would take action only on the tunnels on the Israeli side of the border, but fear grew in Lebanon that Israel might enter Lebanon while the country still lacked a government.

Nine months after the election, on January 31, 2019, a national unity government was announced. The standoff had been resolved when the factions agreed to give one of the Sunni seats to the March 8 bloc. The cabinet included representation from most parties, and the number of women who held seats was increased to four. Hezbollah gained significant influence in the cabinet and was allowed to select an ally to head the Ministry of Health, the ministry with the fourth largest budget in the government. The ministry was not headed outright by Hezbollah—designated a terrorist organization by some foreign governments—on fears that doing so might threaten international funding to the ministry as the government prepared to take on its debt crisis.

Government mismanagement, anti-corruption protests, and the 2020 Beirut explosions

The new cabinet struggled to address the debt and other crises, and popular frustration began to brew over the government’s rampant corruption and inability to act. Concerns over graft were underscored in September by news that Hariri had paid $16 million to a South African model (although in 2013, between his terms as prime minister). Meanwhile, when wildfires ravaged forests in October, the government was unable to respond because it had been unable to pay the cost of maintenance for the necessary equipment. Days after the wildfires broke out, the government announced a new tax on voice over Internet protocol (VoIP), used daily by many Lebanese to avoid the hefty cost of mobile phone calls. Now asked to front the costs of corruption with a new tax on everyday services, Lebanese took to the streets in massive demonstrations. The tax was quickly rescinded, and the government passed an emergency reform package, but the protests continued, calling broadly on the country’s top officials to resign.

On October 29, 2019, Hariri submitted the resignation of his government to President Aoun. Replacing him proved difficult, however, and the first two nominees withdrew from consideration amid protests opposing their appointments. In late December, Aoun tasked Hassan Diab, an academic and former education minister (2011–14), with forming a government. Although protesters also took aim at Diab’s appointment and Hariri’s March 14 bloc refused to join his government, Diab announced the formation of a government on January 21, 2020. Diab boasted that the cabinet comprised technocrats and political outsiders, but questions were raised over whether certain ministers were qualified specialists and whether they were truly independent politically.

As Diab’s government put forward plans for reform, Lebanon fell deeper into crisis. Its currency continued to lose value rapidly, and in March the country defaulted on a foreign debt payment for the first time. Meanwhile, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Lebanon in February left the country under lockdown for months, further exacerbating the already ailing economy. In April the government legalized cannabis production to boost the economy, and in May it began talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout.

In July, negotiations with the IMF collapsed. Lebanon entered into a period of hyperinflation that same month. The crisis was exacerbated further on August 4, when Beirut suffered more than 200 deaths, thousands of injuries, and extensive damage from a mushroom cloud explosion reportedly caused by the neglected storage of ammonium nitrate near its port. In the following days, protests grew with renewed fervor, and several government ministers and lawmakers resigned. On August 10 Diab announced that he would step down. French Pres. Emmanuel Macron led the international response to aid Lebanon after the blast, and concerns that foreign assistance might be mishandled led Macron to push for swift reform. Despite pressure from Macron for a new prime minister to form a government by mid-September, the effort to do so proved again difficult and lengthy, extending far past Macron’s deadline. A government was finally formed a year later in September 2021 under Najib Mikati, who had previously served as prime minister as a compromise candidate.

Meanwhile, the investigation into the 2020 explosion proved especially polarizing, with political leaders and factions claiming that they had been unfairly singled out. In October 2021 a protest was organized by Shiʿi factions in a predominantly Shiʿi neighborhood of Beirut, but its proximity to a Maronite neighborhood amid the tense political atmosphere left both communities on edge. A four-hour gun battle broke out during the protest, marking the deepest division in the city in more than a decade.

Parliamentary elections were set for May 2022. In January Saad al-Hariri announced that he would suspend his involvement in politics, citing an insurmountable degree of division in the country. When elections were held, voters registered their frustration with the political establishment, including Hezbollah, whose bloc lost its majority in the National Assembly in favor of independent newcomers. The prime minister and parliament speaker were unchanged and, when Aoun’s presidency came to an end in October, he was not replaced and the office was left vacant.

Conflict with Israel beginning in 2023

Despite a historic deal between Lebanon and Israel in late 2022 that would allow Lebanon to extract natural gas from a maritime area disputed between the two countries, tensions brewed along the border in 2023 as Hezbollah asserted Lebanon’s claims to the Shebaa Farms. The sporadic confrontations escalated after October 7, when Hamas in the Gaza Strip led an attack in southern Israel that killed about 1,200 people and took more than 240 others hostage. As Israeli forces focused on the Israel-Hamas War in the Gaza Strip, they nonetheless continued to exchange cross-border fire with Hezbollah, whose leaders said that the group would end its cross-border attacks only with a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. In 2024 Israeli forces killed a number of Hezbollah commanders through targeted strikes in Lebanon.

In September 2024, as Israel’s leadership began shifting attention to Israel’s northern border, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to members of Hezbollah exploded, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands of others. The attack was followed days later by an onslaught of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut that Israel said targeted Hezbollah weapons but that killed hundreds of people, including civilians. On September 25 Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system intercepted a missile that Hezbollah had fired toward Tel Aviv, the first such instance of Hezbollah targeting central Israel. On September 27 Israel’s air force dropped about 80 bombs on the Dahieh neighborhood just south of Beirut in a strike that targeted and killed Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli ground forces invaded southern Lebanon on October 1. The devastation in Lebanon over the following two months exceeded that of the 2006 war and included wide destruction in southern Lebanon. A ceasefire agreement announced on November 26 was based largely around the parameters of UN Resolution 1701 that brought the 2006 war to an end.