In the 12 days since Major League Baseball's free agent season commenced, not one player has signed with a new team. Nobody will mistake the MLB offseason for the NFL's or NBA's, when early frenzies turn free agency into events, but even for baseball, this year has been snail-paced.
Football and basketball are capped sports, and both wait weeks to commence free agency instead of starting it the day after a champion is crowned, so attempting to compare is like apples and kumquats. None of that lessens the disappointment for baseball fans ravenous to see their teams improve.
Instead, the hot stove has turned frigid on account of a number of factors: Teams are weighing addressing needs in the trade market. Players aren't eager to sign early, below-market deals. For now, the focus of front offices is on today's deadline to set 40-man rosters and Friday's to tender players a contract -- which are bound to lead to even more players hitting free agency. Some teams are punting on this relatively weak free agent class altogether, looking ahead to next offseason, when a class headlined by Juan Soto, Zack Wheeler, Pete Alonso and Max Fried hits the market.
And, of course, there is a half-billion-dollar question mark obscuring the proceedings.
No, Shohei Ohtani is not going to single-handedly cause every big-spending team with aspirations of signing him to wait instead of going after other top free agents. Executives are well capable of walking and chewing gum simultaneously. Still, the specter Ohtani casts is real.
It's no surprise, then, that he tops our overview of the winter ahead. Ohtani is primed to shatter the North American sports record for guaranteed money in a contract, currently held by his Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout, at $426.5 million. The last time a reigning MVP -- Ohtani is expected to run away with the American League award Thursday -- left his team in free agency was in 1992, when Barry Bonds absconded Pittsburgh for San Francisco.
The unicorn who will rule the winter
If there is one thing to know about Shohei Ohtani's free agency, it's that you are unlikely to know much about it until he signs somewhere. If visits between Ohtani and a team are reported publicly, it will be held against the team, so the circles will be tiny and tight.
The expectation among teams involved is that Ohtani could move relatively quickly -- perhaps even before the Dec. 4-7 winter meetings, according to sources. This is not surprising. During Ohtani's time in MLB, he has spurned turning contract negotiations into major productions. He announced he was signing with the Angels on a Friday night in early December. Rather than maximizing his final earnings -- and potentially altering the arbitration system -- via a hearing, he signed a record one-year, $30 million deal in 2023. The most valuable free agent in the nearly half-century-old system is not altogether interested in everything the free agent experience can offer.
Ohtani, according to multiple sources, has expressed affinity for certain teams and cities in the past. He deeply respects the Los Angeles Dodgers' winning ways, their ability to develop players and their progressive coaching approach. He appreciates the Texas Rangers -- not just for their 2023 World Series victory but the fact that early in his career, when he was playing in Japan, they expressed strong interest in him. He loves visiting Boston and has a fondness for Fenway Park.
The Dodgers, Rangers and Boston Red Sox all are expected to be in the Ohtani sweepstakes, according to sources. And though the industry's overwhelming expectation is that he winds up with the Dodgers, that line of thinking is perhaps presumptive. The Dodgers do have advantages: financial, geographical, on-field success. They also have a history of signing large deals -- on their terms. And with Ohtani coming off an elbow-ligament surgery in October that will keep him from pitching in 2024 -- raising a legitimate question about what his future pitching looks like -- the prospect of plopping down a half-billion guaranteed goes against how they traditionally operate.
Of course, perhaps Ohtani is as much of a mold-breaker for teams' thinking as he has been as a two-way star on the field. The Chicago Cubs never have spent more than $184 million on a player, but Ohtani is an exception. The San Francisco Giants topped out at $167 million, but may have to triple that for Ohtani. (They were willing to dole out $300 million-plus for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter.) The Toronto Blue Jays, said a source with knowledge of their plans, "want to do something big" this winter. Ohtani fits, especially with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. due to hit free agency after the 2025 season.
Ultimately, this will come down to Ohtani's priorities. If it's money he wants, nobody has more than New York Mets owner Steve Cohen. If it's resonance in Japan, no relationship between team and player matches that of the Seattle Mariners and Ichiro Suzuki (though the notion that the Mariners will pay top dollar for Ohtani simply is not real at the moment). And if it's comfort, he can just go back to the Angels, who gave him relative carte blanche the past six years.
The gravitational pull of Ohtani is immense. Wherever he signs, he will irrevocably change the franchise. For organizations with a desire to sell more tickets, his presence does so like no one else in the game. If teams want to look at him like an investment, at $50 million-plus a year Ohtani is still the definition of alpha.
Even with the injury, even with the record-setting number needed, Ohtani is one of one. Now it's just a matter of what he wants. And we'll find out soon enough.
The free agent pitching market is deep
Everyone wants pitching this winter. Like, seriously, everyone.
The St. Louis Cardinals want three starters. Boston is targeting a front-of-the-rotation type. The Baltimore Orioles could thin out their position-playing herd in a trade for a frontline starter. The Dodgers, even with a farm system loaded with arms, need to stabilize their rotation. The Atlanta Braves are targeting a long-term rotation solution with only Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder under contract beyond this year. The Arizona Diamondbacks want to add to Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The Mets' rotation beyond Kodai Senga is all kinds of suspect. Beyond the teams you might have guessed, the Washington Nationals are hunting for pitching. So are the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates. That's not even considering the teams that could trade starters and turn around and sign replacements in free agency, like the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox, or those on the prowl for relief help (Rangers, Angels, Mets).
Luckily, the strength of this free agent class -- and trade market -- is pitching and it starts with one ace who could sign a record-setting deal of his own.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
If not for Ohtani's free agency, the arrival of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to MLB would headline the offseason. For the past three seasons, Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young. The only other player to win three straight Sawamuras was Masaichi Kaneda, widely regarded as the greatest pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball history. The Emperor, as he was known, won an NPB record 400 games during his career from 1950 to 1969.
Yamamoto's numbers are unrivaled. This year, he posted a 1.21 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes in 164 innings, striking out 169, walking 28 and allowing just two home runs. (NPB this year had a dead ball era-level 3.48 runs per game and a home run every 45.6 at-bats, compared to MLB's 4.62 runs and a homer every 28 at-bats.)
As great as those stats are, they're not the number that excites MLB teams the most. That would be 25, as in how old Yamamoto is. The last time a pitcher of Yamamoto's quality reached free agency at 25 was never. The closest comparison is Masahiro Tanaka, who came to the Yankees at 25 in 2014 after winning his second Sawamura and signed for seven years and $155 million, plus a $20 million posting fee.
Yamamoto is even better. He throws five pitches: a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and ticks higher, a demoralizing splitter and a looping curve, hard cutter and slider, all of which grade out above-average. The only knock on him is his size -- he's an athletic 5-foot-10 -- but even that is quibbling.
The market for him is sizzling as he awaits his official posting. (It is expected to happen this week, sources told ESPN.) Just how high Yamamoto's number goes is unclear, but rare is the player similarly beloved by teams' evaluators and computer models. With those sorts, it tends to start at $200 million and work up. The two biggest pitching contracts ever belong to Gerrit Cole (eight years, $324 million) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245 million). The former has been a rousing success, the latter an unmitigated disaster.
With the trajectory of the bidding and the teams involved -- the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, perhaps San Francisco and Toronto as well -- Yamamoto could find himself in their company, and the separator could be which team is willing to offer him big money and an opt-out clause to further leverage his age.
Now here are the best free agent starters after Yamamoto, tiered accordingly:
Tier 1: Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery
While Yamamoto tops the list, Snell -- who's going to win his second Cy Young this week -- isn't far behind. As skeptical as teams might be about his age (31) or walk rate (5.0 per nine innings), his 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts in 180 innings, with elite raw stuff, will land him a megadeal.
Nola, 30, is the opposite of Snell, a control artist whose greatest ability is his availability. Over the past six seasons, Nola has thrown 1,065⅓ innings. The only pitcher in all of MLB with more in that span: Cole, by 11⅓ innings. The gap between Nola and the pitcher behind him, Jose Berrios, is 56 innings. If a team wants a pitcher to throw reams of high-quality innings, Nola is the choice.
Montgomery thrust himself into this tier with a superlative 2023. He started the season looking like the sort who would get a Jameson Taillon/Taijuan Walker-type deal -- something in the four-year, $70 million range. Now Montgomery should easily reach nine figures and could wind up with double the guaranteed money he was expected to get coming into the season.
Julio Urias would be in this mix, too, but after he was arrested on domestic violence charges in September and placed on administrative leave, his future is in doubt.
Tier 2: Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, Sonny Gray
Rodriguez opted out of the $49 million left over the remaining three years of his deal with the Detroit Tigers and could get somewhere in the range of double that. Imanaga, a Yamamoto-sized 30-year-old left-hander, carved for Yokohama this year, with a 174-to-24 strikeout to walk ratio, and is looking at $80 million-plus. The only thing holding Gray back from the top tier is his age (34) but the average annual value on his deal could exceed some ahead of him.
Tier 3: Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, Yariel Rodriguez
Some of the smaller-market teams could play here, with Giolito coming off a way-too-homer-prone season (41 in 184⅓ innings) but still possessing the sort of strikeout stuff to project real upside and a four-year commitment. Stroman's first half (2.96 ERA in 112⅔ innings over 19 starts) had him looking like a Tier 1 guy, and his second half (8.63 ERA in 24 innings amid injuries) was more Tier 6.
Rodriguez is the best pitcher you don't know about. He spent 2020 to 2022 with the Chunichi Dragons as an ace reliever, and some teams believe he's best-suited for that role. Others see him as a starter, and if they are right, the 26-year-old Cuban's stuff could land him a $50 million-plus deal.
Evaluators who have seen him throw since Chunichi released him from his contract say the 6-foot-1, 164-pound Rodriguez has an imposing presence. His fastball sits around 96 mph and touches 99, and his spin, which nears 2,600 rpms, would place him above the 95th percentile in all of baseball. He's got a mighty slider, too, that spins around 2,900 rpms, which would be among the 10 best in all of MLB.
As with Yamamoto, age matters. The only domestic starters available who won't yet be 30 on Opening Day are Giolito, Urías, Jack Flaherty, Chris Flexen and Brad Keller. To get someone with Rodriguez's stuff, at a young age, appeals deeply to teams' models.
Tier 4: Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Clayton Kershaw
Lugo and Flaherty are completely different. Lugo's first full-time foray into starting since 2017 went swimmingly, and he should have no trouble finding three years, even at 33. Flaherty is just 28 and the sort of pitcher who could sign a big one-year deal or perhaps an Andrew Heaney-type contract, for two years with an opt-out after one. After undergoing shoulder surgery, Kershaw is bound to get a two-year deal: one to rehab, one to return.
Tier 5: Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea, Michael Wacha, Kenta Maeda, Nick Martinez, Mike Clevinger, James Paxton, Frankie Montas, Alex Wood
This group covers the whole landscape, stuff-wise. What they share is a lack of innings historically, whether because of role (Lorenzen, Manaea, Martinez) or injuries (Montas, Wacha, Maeda, Paxton, Clevinger, Wood). They're all also the sorts who should get somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 million a year, with a few snagging multiyear deals.
Tier 6: Lance Lynn, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Wade Miley, Luis Severino, Kyle Gibson, Erick Fedde, Naoyuki Uwasawa, Eric Lauer, Tyler Mahle
Lynn was homer-happy, Ryu hurt and Severino ineffective. Gibson and Miley will be a great one-year veteran leaders capable of chomping innings somewhere. Fedde dominated Korea with a newfound slider that evaluators exalt, but coming back from the KBO doesn't often include great riches. Uwasawa is a reliable innings-eater whose poor strikeout rates limit his ceiling. Lauer was a disaster last season, but he's only 28 and should find a rotation spot based on his past effectiveness. Mahle will miss most of this year recovering from Tommy John surgery, but could get a two-year deal like Paxton did following his procedure.
The reliever everyone wants -- and the rest of the bullpen options
The 29-year-old is so above and beyond the rest of the relievers in this class that he warrants his own category. After a nightmare 2022, he rebounded by posting a 1.28 ERA and striking out 85 in 56⅓ innings.
Hader will be shooting for the Edwin Diaz deal, trying to become the game's second nine-figure closer. His fastball velocity ticked down to 96 this year -- still higher than it was at his performance peak -- but it remains an elite pitch, as does his slider. His walk rate jumped. And he's not striking out as many as he once did. But for teams like the Angels, Cubs, Yankees and Rangers, all of whom need bullpen help, he'd register as a significant upgrade.
The rest of the reliever group includes:
Jordan Hicks: Teams believe there's plenty more to unlock with Hicks, and it is fueling a ripe market. He's the youngest domestic pitcher on the market, having just turned 27. His fastball sits at 100 mph and runs up to 104. Everything is there for greatness. Hicks just needs to find it.
Robert Stephenson: No reliever made himself more money this year than the 30-year-old Stephenson did after his trade to Tampa Bay. In 38⅓ innings with the Rays, he struck out 60 and walked eight. He should get three years at a strong annual rate.
Yuki Matsui: The best left-hander on the market, the 28-year-old Matsui posted a 1.42 ERA for Rakuten over the past three seasons. He is a plug-and-play closer or an elite seventh- or eighth-inning option for a team with one already.
Hector Neris: He opted out of a $8.5 million deal for this season and should get at least that for two years -- and potentially three if the lack of elite relievers juices the market.
David Robertson: While he struggled after a trade to Miami, the Robertson of the first half was All-Star caliber, and at 38, he's throwing harder than ever -- and with cut. He should get a hefty one-year deal.
Craig Kimbrel: Like Robertson, he didn't finish the season well. But Kimbrel can close, and he'll be a backup plan for those that whiff on Hader and Hicks.
Reynaldo Lopez: Since transitioning to relief full time in 2021, Lopez has a 3.14 ERA in 189 innings with a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's not a closer. But he is a reliable late-inning arm whose K rate ticked up three per nine above his career average this year.
The free agent bats are yikes
Let's be frank: This is not a good class of hitters. Cody Bellinger is clearly the top available choice, and before his return to form last season, he had spent the previous two years hitting .193/.256/.355 with 29 home runs and 104 RBIs in 900 plate appearances. Here are the top dozen hitters on the market:
Bellinger, CF/1B: Bellinger will easily crack $100 million this winter but even after his resurgent season, teams are expressing concern with how hard he hits the ball. His hard-hit rate was in the 10th percentile in MLB, his average exit velocity the 22nd. A .307/.356/.525 line and precipitous dip in strikeout rate in 2022 will mean Bellinger has a plethora of options he didn't have last offseason, but his financial ceiling might suffer because the expected numbers don't portend well and teams rely heavily on them in their assessments.
Matt Chapman, 3B: Chapman has the opposite problem. His hard-hit percentage was second in MLB behind Aaron Judge. Over the past five months of the season, though, he slashed .205/.298/.361 with 12 home runs in 467 plate appearances. The team that signs him will be betting on positive regression.
Jung-hoo Lee, CF: We're back to age. Lee is the most talented Korean position player to come to MLB since Shin-Soo Choo signed with Seattle in 2000, and he's just 25 years old. hit over .300 in all seven of his seasons in the KBO, he doesn't strike out and even though he's coming off a fractured ankle, he should patrol center field wherever he lands.
Teoscar Hernández, OF: While Hernández's final numbers in 2023 didn't match his career marks, it's worth noting his home-road splits. At T-Mobile Park, the worst hitters' park in baseball, he slashed .217/.263/.380. On the road: .295/.344/.486. If history is any indication, the 31-year-old Hernández should be in line for a four-year deal.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: Gurriel is like Hernández without quite the history of performance. He'll hit homers, play solid corner-outfield defense and walk sparingly. The relative lack of strikeouts is a plus in his favor.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B/1B: Candelario turns 30 the day after Thanksgiving, and between his ability to hit from both sides, career-best walk year and ability to play on the dirt, he's got a three-year deal coming his way.
Mitch Garver, C/DH: The 32-year-old Garver picked an excellent year to stay healthy. His 344 plate appearances were 15 shy of his career high, and he made the most of them, slugging .500. For a team that can use 50 games at catcher -- in other words, almost all 30 clubs -- he's an excellent option.
Jorge Soler, DH: Nobody will ever doubt Soler's ability to hit the ball very hard and very far. Teams in need of power will stack him against a cohort that includes Garver and the next three players in this group.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B: A consistent near 30-homer producer, Hoskins missed 2023 after tearing an ACL during spring training. Even so, teams believe in the bat enough that he should have no problem landing a multiyear deal -- or a hefty one-year pact that would allow him to hit free agency again in search of something more representative of his production.
J.D. Martinez, DH: At 36, Martinez isn't the high-on-base threat he once was. The power remains, though, with 33 home runs and 103 RBIs in 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers this year. The team that signs Martinez knows it can plug him in the middle of the order on Opening Day and rest easy.
Justin Turner, 3B/DH: Speaking of professional hitters, Turner went to Boston for a season and did what he's done now for almost a decade. The swing and miss ticked up a touch, but Turner remains one of the best bat-to-ball guys in the game.
Tim Anderson, SS/2B: Once upon a time Anderson looked like a nine-figure guy. His disastrous 2023 -- .245/.286/.296 with one home run in 524 plate appearances -- left him not only willing to come off shortstop, but as the best candidate for a one-year deal to rebuild his value.
Others available expected to draw interest include:
First base: Brandon Belt
Utilityman: Adam Frazier, Enrique Hernandez, Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario
Outfield: Harrison Bader, Michael Brantley, Adam Duvall, Jason Heyward, Kevin Kiermaier, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Hunter Renfroe, Michael A. Taylor
The trade market could shake up the offseason
That weak group of free agent hitters doesn't mean we won't see another big bat change teams this winter though, with a San Diego slugger highlighting the group of players who could be on the move via trade.
Juan Soto
There is a reason the entire industry believes the San Diego Padres will trade Soto, their star 25-year-old outfielder this winter, and it is rooted in the belief that the Padres need to trim payroll from $253 million last year to $200 million this season. The team has not acknowledged this publicly, but taking out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September did little to discourage the idea.
Currently, the Padres' payroll for 2024, with estimates on arbitration-eligible players such as Soto, is around $191 million, according to Baseball Prospectus. That covers nine players under long-term contracts, six in arbitration and 11 who can be paid at or near the league minimum. The problem is that Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Luis Garcia and Josh Hader -- all free agents -- accounted for 687 of the 1,441 innings Padres pitchers threw last season. Perhaps some of that can be handled internally, but not 47.7% of their total innings. Replacing them and remaining competitive will take free agent dollars, and a lot more than $9 million.
Shedding salary, then, is a must. Except there's a slight problem, and it can be seen in the deals of each player San Diego has locked up:
Manny Machado: 10 years, $327 million, full no-trade clause
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 11 years, $317 million, full no-trade clause
Xander Bogaerts: 10 years, $250 million, full no-trade clause
Jake Cronenworth: seven years, $80 million, limited no-trade clause
Joe Musgrove: four years, $80 million, full no-trade clause through 2026
Yu Darvish: five years, $78 million, full no-trade clause
Robert Suarez: four years, $36 million
Ha-Seong Kim: one year, $7 million
Matt Carpenter: one year, $5.5 million
For the tl;dr crowd: The Padres' three megadeals all would require player approval to be moved, as would their only two clear starters. Cronenworth, Suarez and Carpenter's deals are messes that no one wants, and Kim barely makes a dent in the budget.
So, yeah. Unless the Padres can get incredibly creative -- and, admittedly, if there's anyone who has shown the ability to get creative, it's San Diego GM A.J. Preller -- the writing is on the wall. It's possible they could weasel out of a big deal by attaching elite prospects, but doing so would wound their future and thin out a farm system that's already top-heavy.
The only logical end point to all this is moving Soto, who's expected to make around $33 million in his final year of arbitration. Now, logic doesn't always prevail. And it would be an awful look for the team to give up a prospect of James Wood's caliber -- not to mention C.J. Abrams, Mackenzie Gore, Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana -- only to turn around after a season and a half and punt. But it's a sound enough perspective for the Padres to have internally discussed their options if they do move Soto, sources told ESPN.
The obvious focus is on acquiring near-major-league-ready starting pitching, sources said. And teams rich in that include the Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, Drew Thorpe, Chase Hampton), Cubs (Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski) and Mariners (Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock). Chicago almost certainly won't move Cade Horton, and Seattle will hesitate to move Woo or Bryce Miller, with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert strictly off-limits for what amounts to a rental player.
Of course, it's Juan Soto, one of the best hitters in baseball, the man for whom Preller mortgaged his farm system. So if he does in fact move, the return assuredly won't be piddling.
The non-Soto trade division
Even with the lengthy list of free agent starting pitchers available, there is an attractive group of starting pitchers who could be had in trades this winter. The candidates are relatively clear. Tampa Bay is widely expected to move Tyler Glasnow and his $25 million salary. The White Sox will entertain entreaties on Dylan Cease. Same for Cleveland and Shane Bieber.
Here are some of other potential trade candidates percolating in the wake of the GM meetings include:
Pete Alonso: Alonso has expressed interest in hammering out a contract extension with the Mets. But he wants big money -- much bigger than the top first-base contracts doled out in recent years -- and, accordingly, the Mets are willing to listen to other teams. They are not chasing a trade. Unless contract talks fall apart, they're unlikely to pursue one. But if a motivated team approaches the Mets, new president of baseball operations David Stearns will hear them out.
Isaac Paredes and Brandon Lowe: The Rays are inveterate needle-threaders, always trying to balance the present with the future, the young with the not-quite-as-young. And with a farm system that keeps churning out quality bats, they've got an infield glut that could be alleviated by moving Paredes (who would fetch a big return) or Lowe (who's under contract for one year with two club option years on top of it). What makes the Rays so good is their ability to churn talent, and moving a bat would qualify.
Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames: Here's the thing about Milwaukee potentially dealing its ace and shortstop. The Brewers just lost their manager to their hated rival. What sort of message does it send to fans if they actively ship their best players out, too? Business in a small market is different, and perhaps that's the cost of doing it. But the Brewers are good. They won the NL Central this year. They can win it again next year, especially with Jackson Chourio, Tyler Black and Jacob Misiorowski arriving soon. If the Brewers falter, Burnes and Adames can make Milwaukee the belle of the ball at the trade deadline. Other teams aren't convinced a huge sale is coming.
Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco: Both are free agents after this season, and with Minnesota's concerns over the collapse of the Bally regional sports networks and what that will mean for their revenue, the Twins are expected to shed payroll this winter after winning the AL Central.
Cease -- and every White Sox player, really: New GM Chris Getz has let teams know Chicago is open for business. One look at the White Sox's roster suggests that this is a team ripe for a teardown. If Cease or outfielder Luis Robert goes, there's really no reason not to besides owner Jerry Reinsdorf holding onto the idea that the White Sox can be competitive, which, barring a flurry of additions, won't be the case.
Anthony Santander: The Orioles have some serious problems. Beyond its infield glut, Baltimore has too many outfielders, too. And with Santander set to make around $12 million in his final arbitration season, he could move for young pitching and the Orioles could settle on an Austin Hays-Cedric Mullins-Colton Cowser-or-Heston Kjerstad outfield.
Alex Lange, Tyler Holton and Jason Foley: The trio of Tigers relievers was excellent last year -- and none is yet arbitration eligible. Teams will pay for pre-arbitration bullpen help, and if it can net Detroit a starting pitcher, second baseman or third baseman, a team with Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson and slugging prospect Colt Keith on the doorstep becomes that much more interesting.
Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman: St. Louis has told other teams it doesn't plan on moving outfielders Jordan Walker or Lars Nootbaar but others will be in play. The likeliest candidate, teams believe, is O'Neill, who's a year from free agency and clashed with manager Oli Marmol this year. Another option: Carlson, a good buy-low candidate. And Edman, a super utilityman who can play shortstop, would have the most value of the three.
Scott Barlow: San Diego is actively trying to move Barlow ahead of the Friday non-tender deadline. While he was very good in 25 appearances for the Padres after his trade from Kansas City, Barlow's stuff has regressed, and the estimated $6 million he is owed in arbitration could be prohibitive.
Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres: Do not believe the rumored Verdugo-for-Gleyber Torres nonsense. Even if the fits match, the likelihood of the Red Sox and Yankees pulling off a deal of substance is minuscule. That said, the industry believes Boston wants to move Verdugo, while a Torres trade doesn't align with New York's desire to improve its offense, he's a year from free agency and slated to make upward of $15 million in arbitration when the Yankees have Oswald Peraza champing at the bit for at-bats.
Jonathan India: With too many infielders to fill the four spots already -- Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand -- Cincinnati is suggesting to other teams India is the odd man out. Other teams believe it's more a matter of when, not if, India will move.