euractiv.de
euractiv.fr
euractiv.es
euractiv.it
euractiv.pl
euractiv.bg
euractiv.cz
euractiv.gr
euractiv.ro
euractiv.sk
Euractiv is part of the Trust Project
After Russia signed the Minsk Agreements in 2015, freezing its war in the Donbas, it turned to Syria and launched a military intervention, where Assad’s army was about to be defeated.
With the help of Russian airpower and Iranian-backed forces, Assad's troops managed to recapture Aleppo from opposition forces in 2016, cementing Moscow's role as the decisive external actor in Syria and marking the launch of a more assertive Russian foreign policy.
Russia then turned its attention closer to home – it invested efforts to destabilise countries in its near neighbourhood by prepping up Kremlin-friendly actors in Belarus, the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Georgia and positioning military might next to Ukraine's borders.
In a recent, surprising push against Aleppo, Turkey-backed rebels recaptured the city, undermining not only Assad’s remaining grip on power but also Russia’s position in the Middle East – and its reputation as a global player.
A telling indication of that was a video circulating on social media recorded in a Russian advisory office at Aleppo’s military academy after the rebels took it.
Assad's key allies, Russia and Iran, have been distracted by the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, respectively.
This time around, Russia might not be able to help Assad – even if it would want to significantly. Military analysts point to the fact that Moscow cannot meaningfully aid its ally, as Moscow has moved most of its equipment to fortify its positions in Ukraine and Russian troops are already overstretched.
Since Russian troops faced significant Ukrainian resistance from 2022 onwards, Moscow has been forced to redeploy some of its Syria-based hardware, including Su-25 fighter jets and an S-300 long-range missile system, to the front lines.
Russia's creeping advances in eastern Ukraine have only managed to capture strategically insignificant villages but have not made progress Moscow could sell as 'significant.'
While the rapid advance of rebels will force Russia to recalibrate its Syria strategy, Putin might not afford to spare Russian troops to be sent elsewhere or risk any defeats, even if small and symbolic, in Ukraine.
He also cannot rely on the Wagner Group anymore, which has played a significant role in Syria. He used the conflict as a testing ground for later operations anywhere the Kremlin wanted to exert power or back a political ally.
Alleged Ukrainian involvement in training some of those Syrian rebel forces could be seen as part of a broader trend of Kyiv’s forces targeting Russian forces abroad, according to a Ukrainian media report.
As Damascus now turns to Iran for help, Moscow is about to lose another ally from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
Assad potential fall or even only the rebels recapturing Hama could be a heavy blow to Russia's standing in the Middle East that could force Moscow to shut down its Khmeimim Air Base around Latakia and the naval facility in Tartus.
The situation could soon put Kremlin strategists in front of a dilemma: either risk losing Syria and its gateway to the Middle East or try to put the war in Ukraine once again 'on hold' to be able to shift attention to aid Assad.
In this sense, ceasefire talks or peace negotiations in Ukraine would positively benefit the Kremlin, as they could free up resources to use elsewhere, and Putin might be inclined to make a push in his favour in the next few weeks, some analysts believe.
At the same time, Putin's political allies in Georgia are increasingly under pressure.
Depending on how far the country's opposition will take the protests, Moscow will have to decide whether to come to the Georgian Dream government's aid or let things play out with the risk of losing its grip on Tbilisi.
In all three cases, the ball seems to be in Russia's court.
The Roundup
French political crisis – Analysis: French budget dispute unlikely to trigger Greece-style economic collapse. "We’re experiencing high political instability."
Irish elections – The final results show centre-right parties’ coalition options. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael can form a majority coalition with as few as two other deputies.
Health – EU political groups agree on a new, full-standing health committee, strictly limiting its scope to health policy.
European Ombudsman – EU legislators quiz candidates for ethics watchdog in Brussels. The European Parliament will elect the new ombudsman in Strasbourg on 17 December.
Wolf debate – Bern Committee votes to lower the protection status of wolves. The next step for the EU will be changing the Habitats Directive, a move that NGOs fear.
NATO looks beyond Europe – NATO will open a liaison office in Jordan to boost political dialogue and cooperation, including organising conferences and training.
Defence – EU defence industry programme latest: Debate swirls on funding rules for foreign companies. The latest compromise text shows reduced ambitions on EU’s supply.
Defence – A Czech arms manufacturer has entered the global top 100 defence companies. CSG saw its revenues from arms sales and military services rise by 25% year over year.
Polish politics – Poland’s Duda dislikes PiS-backed presidential candidate, sources say Nawrocki is officially running as an independent candidate but is backed by PiS.
Hate crimes – 103 hate crime probes in Portugal in the first six months of 2024. There have been 17 indictments since 2020.
Abortion politics – Right and far-right parties launch a global anti-abortion offensive in Madrid. The Senate became a "theme park" against women’s reproductive and sexual rights.
Italian politics – Fitto to Foti: loyal Meloni ally takes key ministerial role. The opposition said they hope he will do better than his predecessor.
Look out for
- New European Commission will hold its first college meeting in Brussels, Belgium.
- President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, exchanges views with MEPs in the ECON Committee on the European Systemic Risk Board in Brussels, Belgium.
- European Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, in Brussels, Belgium.
- European Commissioner Magnus Brunner attends the Peace Light Ceremony.
