Bayrou makes new government out of Macron centrist allies and ex-ministers

French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced the country's fourth government in 2024 on Monday (23 December), holding on to the political course of the past seven years with a team of close centrist allies and ministers from previous governments, including two ex-prime ministers.

The no-confidence vote that had Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government collapse in early December was an apparent call by opposition forces that things ought to change. The call was, evidently, ignored.

On Monday, France unveiled its fourth government of 2024, made of familiar, pro-Macron faces, long-serving allies, Bayrou confidants, ex-ministers, and a few established conservative faces – hinting to the quasi-certainty that Macron’s political direction will not see the slightest of changes.

Hopes for the executive team to open to social democrats were crushed, as many had predicted. As it stands, it is less politically diverse than Barnier’s government was, which crashed after two and a half months in action – raising serious questions over the new government's own survival odds.

Ex-Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne (2022-2024), who passed the baton to the youngest-serving Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, in January 2024, is back with a large-scope Education, Research and Innovation portfolio.

Her return is matched by another former Prime Minister, Manuel Valls (2014-2016), to take on the overseas territories job.

A former socialist turned early Macron supporter, he is a decried figure for his alleged political opportunism: once a presidential hopeful – he failed at the 2016 socialist primaries – he resigned from his lawmaker job in 2019 to enter the Barcelona municipal race, which he did not win. He returned to France in 2021.

Gérald Darmanin, who served as interior minister for four years until the summer of 2024, becomes justice minister. Conservative Bruno Retailleau holds on to the interior minister role he has taken over from Darmanin.

Of note, Eric Lombard, a former bank C-suite executive, is appointed as economy and finance minister and will carry with him the complex mission to draft and adopt a 2025 budget – with support from Amélie de Montchalin, former EU minister and France's permanent representative at the OECD.

To do that, both will need to secure the support of anti-Macron political factions, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and the left Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) coalition, whose combined votes brought the previous government down.

Most other ministers, including Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Culture Minister Rachida Dati, Work Minister Catherine Vautrin, Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard, Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, and Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad stay put.

Only new by name

But for Lombard, senior government figures are only new by name.

Most are household names, and all held ministerial posts in the past. All also are, to varying degrees, associated with Macron, and, bar for the conservatives, are early supporters of the man’s political Odyssey.

The list as it stands raises serious questions over the actual possibility of this government’s survival. Bayrou is left with the least politically open government since 2022 – at a time when fragmentation is such that survival odds depend on the ability to secure the support of some opposition forces.

The left will most likely oppose a liberal-minded 2025 budget so long as the 2023 pensions reform, which pushed the legal retirement age from 62 to 64, is not suspended at once – a key NFP ask. Bayrou says he is open to tweaks and improvements but will not freeze it.

The far right, who refused to enter into coalition talks of any sort, announced they would give this new government a chance, just like they had with Barnier’s. They effectively hold a kingmaker position: government survival would depend on the RN’s decision to throw their support or file a vote of no-confidence on which the left would vote.

Ultimately, this new government is far from the far-right nationalistic agenda, and disagreements will soon show.

As a first sign of the influence the RN is ready to exert on the new executive, it pushed against the possible appointment of conservative Xavier Bertrand as Justice minister, who has often been vocally critical of the far right. The party warned his nomination would “send a very wrong signal” – enough for Bertrand to be let go.

“I refuse to partake in a French government formed with Marine Le Pen’s approval,” which would have been “walking back on my values,” Bertrand said in a press release.

"François Bayrou has put together a failed coalition," RN President Jordan Bardella posted on X.

[Edited by Martina Monti]