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Recent developments in Georgia are the consequence of more than a decade of deterioration - and Europe's negligence to call them out earlier.
State capture is a funny thing. It is a process of systemic political corruption that is usually only discovered once it is nearly too late.
If it would be a contest, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a business tycoon who has brought Georgia much closer to Russia's orbit of influence, would be one of its winners.
This weekend, his Georgian Dream party claimed victory in parliamentary elections, gaining a majority of nearly 54% of the votes (Ivanishvili had predicted it would be 60, some recounting is still going on). The results and the fairness of the elections are widely contested. But what is forgotten is that Ivanishvili has prepared his victory thoroughly.
When he took power in Georgia in 2012, many observers argued that he would continue the pro-European policies of his predecessor, Mikheil Saakashvili, whom he sent to prison for "abuse of power".
His official term was short, lasting only 11 months as he withdrew from politics just within a year. Ivanishvili returned as chairman of his Georgian Dream party in 2018, left again in 2021, and then returned at the end of 2023 as the honorary head of his party.
But in practice he was never gone and perfected a way of running the country's government from the backseat, approving appointments of every prime minister and minister.
His key to success has been to divide the country, using Russia's playbook of cracking down on opposition and what he called a threat to Georgian traditional values.
Georgian Dream's introduction of the Kremlin-style 'foreign agent' law earlier this year in May was only the tip of the iceberg. Civil society organisations pointed towards a series of laws that have gradually curtailed the country's political and personal freedoms.
With impunity from the authoritarian-style legislation and the political vacuum after last weekend's elections, he feels he can afford to get tougher on the country's opposition.
Even before the polls, Georgian Dream officials vowed to outlaw the entire parliamentary opposition if it won, disbarring any members elected on those platforms.
It has also threatened to impeach Georgia's pro-Western President, Salome Zourabishvili, who has stretched her mandate to support the creation of a united opposition that would run on a pro-European platform.
With both the president and the opposition rejecting last weekend's result as rigged and the four political parties pledging to boycott parliament, Georgian Dream might soon feel inclined to prosecute them of treason, which some people close to the movement believe.
State capture is not something that happens overnight. The sad truth is that the EU did not pay close attention until it was five minutes before midnight.
"Unless Georgia reverts the current course of action, which jeopardises its EU path and demonstrates tangible efforts to address outstanding concerns and key reforms, the European Commission will not be in a position to consider recommending opening negotiations with Georgia," the EU's enlargement report card for the country stated on Wednesday (30 October).
For Ivanishvili, however, many opposition representatives say being denied entry into the EU would not represent a setback. It would remove the last obstacle in capturing the state fully.
The Roundup
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UK detects first case of new mpox variant.
EU adopts tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese electric cars. A Commission official told reporters there were persisting “broad disagreements" around subsidies.
Frontex is set for a big overhaul as talks on returns intensify, with discussions on revising the EU’s Return Directive and tripling Frontex’s standing corps to 30,000 overhauls.
The collapse of a German ‘air taxi’ start-up lays bare Europe’s industrial strategy challenge.
Italian judges turn to the European Court of Justice for ‘safe third country’ criteria. The process could take years, leaving the future of the Albanian migrant centres in limbo.
The German government is in full campaigning mood as coalition parties stage competing business summits. Analysts say they are presenting uncoordinated plans for the economy.
Spanish Supreme Court urged to investigate SALF leader MEP Alvise Pérez, controversial for his xenophobic stance and verbal attacks on corruption in traditional political parties.
Look out for
- European Commissioner Didier Reynders opens and participates in the Global Privacy Assembly, where he will meet the President Director of the Brazilian Data Protection Authority - ANPD Waldemar Gonçalves Ortunho Junior and Chairperson of Korea’s Personal Information Protection Commission - PIPC Haksoo Ko, in St Helier, Jersey.
- European Commissioner Věra Jourová meets with the President of the Senate of the Czech Republic Miloš Vystrčil, in Prague.
- European Commissioner Helena Dalli delivers a speech at the Italian Parliament at the Stand Out Women Awards Ceremony in Rome.
- Dalli will also attend a working breakfast with ambassadors and representatives from the United Nations agencies based in Rome, and the Holy See.
- Bruegel organises in Brussels, Belgium, a hybrid conference on ''China's green transition with Wensheng Peng'.
- EPC organises in Brussels, Belgium a conference on the 'Enlargement Package 2024: Expectations and the way forward'.
