The tension between Hollywood's TV writers and studios has been simmering for a while now, but it's reached breaking point this week with a call for thousands to go on strike in protest of stagnating wages and a dried-up landscape of residual payments.
It will be the first writer's strike in 15 years after the 100-day-long walk-out in 2007 led to massive ripple effects in the industry. Plenty of primetime shows like Breaking Bad and 30 Rock ended up cutting their seasons short by anything from a handful to more than half of their normal episode run, while other shows like, famously, Heroes and Pushing Daisies lost so much momentum from their hiatus that, by the time they returned, it was only a matter of time before they were yanked off screens by a hook.
Back in 2007, the main complaints from the Writers Guild of America were a lack of residual payouts from the boom in DVD sales and the burgeoning advent of online consumption. Now, in 2023, that ground is being similarly fought, though the landscape of television is almost unrecognisable. Whereas cable TV ruled the roost in the early aughts, streaming is well and truly the episodic medium of choice now and writers are arguing that higher production time, fewer episodes and overall less calculable residual profits have left them in the dust. While a strike has been called, it's not in effect yet, but if the picket line does form, how will it affect our favourite TV shows?
Immediately, the first tier of shows that will feel the strain will be daily or weekly scripted offerings like late-night talk shows or variety shows. Jimmy Fallon, Seth Meyers, Steven Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel have already announced immediate halts to their nightly shows, meaning A-list celebrity guests scheduled for the week have been called off, while shows like Saturday Night Live and Last Week Tonight with John Oliver are still up in the air. In their stead, reruns of previous shows will be playing in their slots.
After topical shows, the next ones to be affected will be soap operas, which don't really have a ton of global recognition but make up a core part of weekly TV slots in the US and tend to have shorter times between writing, production and airing. As it goes, most of these shows will only have enough episodes banked to last about a month.
As for primetime offerings, the ones that make it onto streaming services with big flashy premieres, the landscape looks a little different to 2007. Not only was modern streaming still mostly a twinkle in big tech's eyes, it was also the norm for even the most prestige shows to run with more than 20 episodes a season. That meant there was more writing upfront, less time between production and airing and more rewrites as a result of things like real-time reception from audiences. Nowadays, TV has been streamlined. It's rare for shows to make more than a dozen episodes a season and, with the movie talent migrating from the big screen to the small screen, production is sometimes done years before the show makes it to us. What this means is that current, zeitgeist-fave shows like Succession or Ted Lasso aren't likely to be affected because they're already on air. Similarly, upcoming shows like HBO's The Idol or Disney's scheduled Marvel and Star Wars offerings like Loki and Ahsoka are also probably safe from any mid-season fumbling.
If the strike goes go on for as long as the one in 2007, we'll instead probably feel a ripple far later down the line for shows that aren't even in production yet. There may also be a boom in reality TV content of the Love is Blind or Selling Sunset ilk, as they're things that can still be made with workers under a different union. Shows that are still beholden to a cable TV network, like Abbott Elementary and stalwarts such as Grey's Anatomy and the very many crime procedural shows that litter networks may face delays, as writing usually gears up in the summer. For streaming exclusive shows, however, those knock-on effects will probably feel like less of a blow. Something like Stranger Things may, for instance, be delayed, but Netflix could simply just change the premiere date and push a bunch of algorithmically similar things our way in the meantime as a distraction. We're really unlikely to notice these shows taking more time to come our way, as we're already getting used to a reality where there are two or more years between seasons (just look at the Stranger Things kids now all being in their twenties but playing 16-year-olds).
The difference between now and 2007 is that, while our favourite shows probably will, in some way, be affected, it will be way less noticeable. Especially for audiences outside the US that get their cable TV shows on streaming services anyway, there is such a back catalogue at our fingertips that studios can shove out while negotiations play out. International options are also such a massive weapon in their arsenal, as a world of content unaffected by strikes can be promoted and dangled like a set of shiny keys. Streamers have enough on hand to keep us at bay, however, with technology and the way we consume TV evolving quicker and quicker as time goes on, complaints about how those who create our favourite shows get compensated will continue to be a thorny issue that has the potential to bring Hollywood to a halt.
