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Starmer pursues EU alliances to soften Brexit blow
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello in Italy.
What is motivating the Starmer UK government from seeking new security treaties with Germany and with Paris?
Well, it has to do essentially with Brexit, trying to mitigate the consequences of that and reengaging with European countries. That has tended to focus more on security issues. We'll see what's going to be the content of it. But in economic terms, as long as one excludes what the UK government does, going back into the single market and going back into Customs Union, to mitigate the economic consequences, a damaging one of Brexit, has got to be very difficult. It's a small step, but a good one.
What is the effect of Italy's very restrictive policies on migration and what's happening in the Mediterranean on the migration flows across the Mediterranean?
Yep, it's true. The Meloni government is taking a very restrictive approach, confiscating or impounding humanitarian relief boats, which is very controversial and heavily criticized. But the effect has, of course, been a significant drop in the number of people arriving. While last year, at this particular time, up until this time, it was 112,000 people arrived on the shores of Italy. Now that figure is down to 40,000. But several thousands have disappeared into the Mediterranean.
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron welcome Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he arrives to attend a reception for heads of state and government at the Elysee Palace before the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games, in Paris, France August 28, 2024.
Keir Starmer “Bre-sets” UK’s relationship with Europe
The United Kingdom’s new Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to “turn a corner on Brexit” ahead of his quick European tour this week. Taking a jab at his Conservative predecessors — who campaigned for and managed the country’s divorce from the European Union — he vowed to “fix the broken relationships left behind by the previous government.”
Starmer arrived in Berlin on Wednesday to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In a press conference, the leaders announced a plan for a new German-UK cooperation agreement modeled after a similar 2010 deal with France that deepens defense ties over the next 50 years. The new agreement will also target energy, science, technology, and migration coordination, as well as an increase in intelligence sharing. Both countries aim to sign the treaty by 2025.
Starmer does not plan to try to reverse the 2016 Brexit decision and has said Britain will not rejoin the EU in his lifetime.
Still, Scholz said Wednesday that he was “delighted” with the UK’s pivot back to Europe. “We want to grasp this outstretched hand,” he said.
After Berlin, Starmer headed to Paris for the Paralympics opening ceremony on Wednesday night and to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday.
Israel-Hamas war: West Bank raid won't derail cease-fire
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week from Davos on World In :60.
Does the Israeli undercover hospital raid in West Bank destroy any chance of a ceasefire with Hamas?I mean what? The fact that you have undercover IDF forces going after people they believe are terrorists in a hospital? I don't see that as more significant in any way than the war that's been going on in Gaza. The issue is that in the West Bank, but there's been a lot of fighting in the West Bank, knocking a lot of news. No, no, no. The big point here is that the Israelis are under more pressure and are willing to accept a more challenging ceasefire deal than they were a couple of weeks ago, both in terms of of how long that cease fire would go on and also what they're negotiating for the number of hostages and what they have to give up in return. It looks like they are getting pretty close, but once again, would have to be approved by the Knesset and Hamas has to say yes. And that has been more challenging than getting the Israelis to the table, at least in the last couple of weeks.Why is it more concerning when TikTok shares US data than when US tech companies do?
Well, I mean, one is the presumption and I think it's a reasonable presumption that if TikTok has your data, the Chinese government will have access to that data. And a lot of Americans are understandably uncomfortable with a foreign government that engages in espionage against the US, having access to citizens’ data as opposed to, say, the US government, which of course, occasionally does so as well. But you are a citizen. You do have those rights, and in principle you're more aligned with it. But you know, also the fact that the Chinese government does not allow Western social media firms, the Meta and the Google surveillance capitalism to operate fully in China. And that means that the Chinese are not having access to American major companies. Some of the biggest drivers of wealth that the United States has. So why would the Americans allow the Chinese to do that in the US? At the very least, you'd want a level playing field, and that means for both sides.
What are the wider consequences of West Africa's “Brexit” moment?
Well, what we're talking about here is that the West African “EU”, which is nothing like the EU, ECOWAS, and it's kind of like an economic and political bloc, but it's not super functional and it's really, really divided. But nonetheless, the three countries in Africa that have recently had military coups and therefore have zero legitimacy of their governments. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have all decided to leave ECOWAS. And you know who's on the ground in those countries? Who has any influence other than the military? It's Russia. And, you know, given that Russia's other friends are North Korea and Iran, that is, generally speaking, not a great thing for West Africa and more broadly.
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
- Israel-Hamas War: The race to avert escalation in the Middle East ›
- Why the Israel-Hamas war is so divisive ›
- Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow ›
- Iran’s leaders are asking for trouble ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Who is responsible for Gaza's enormous civilian death toll? - GZERO Media ›
The Stormont Parliament Buildings in Belfast, Northern Ireland.
A breakthrough in Northern Ireland?
DUP leaders claim that Rishi Sunak’s UK government has agreed to scrap the customs checks and paperwork that slow the flow of goods between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, a controversial feature of the Brexit deal that London originally cut with the EU as part of Brexit. The agreement, according to DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, “takes away the border within the UK between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.”
In exchange, the DUP has agreed to rejoin Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive with opposition parties that favor closer ties to the Republic of Ireland, which remains a member of the EU. By rejoining, the DUP allows North Ireland’s executive and assembly to get back to work for the first time since it began boycotting those institutions in February 2022.
There’s a catch, and it may be a big one: Details of the deal will only be revealed on Wednesday. If it does what the DUP leader says it does, the EU will want a word. Stay tuned …
25 years later, is Brexit unraveling Northern Ireland’s delicate peace?
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended decades of bloody violence in Northern Ireland, as paramilitary groups agreed to disarm. The agreement was such a watershed that US President Joe Biden is expected to visit Belfast and the Republic of Ireland this week to mark its 25th anniversary.
But the stability of the 1.8-million-strong country has been thrown into question as a result of Brexit-induced bedlam.
Indeed, post-Brexit negotiations over trade and border arrangements have sparked some violence and raised fears of broader destabilization, prompting Britain's MI5 intelligence agency to recently raise the domestic terror threat level in Northern Ireland from “substantial” to “severe.”
Twenty-five years after the landmark accord — also known as the Belfast Agreement — how stable is the situation in Northern Ireland, and how has Brexit threatened the status quo?
A Troubled backstory
The region has long been mired in violence, particularly since the partition of Ireland in the 1920s, which gave rise to a bloody civil war. While the North remained under British control, the southern Ireland Free State formed the basis of an independent Ireland. The well-known Irish Republican Army, also known as the Provos, survived the civil war and continued to agitate against the British.
But the modern conflict arose in the 1960s, when Irish republicans (nationalists), most of whom were Catholic, began protesting against the Northern Irish government, made up of pro-UK Protestants that they claimed were discriminating against them. While it was not a religious conflict, tensions flared along denominational lines.
Indeed, civil rights demonstrations morphed into deadly sectarian clashes, and nationalist paramilitary groups on both sides engaged in terrorism to further their aims. In a move that deepened divisions, the British government deployed troops to the North in 1969.
The bloody 30-year period that followed — depicted in iconic films like “In the Name of the Father” and “Hidden Agenda” — became known as the Troubles.
A delicate peace is born
While campaigning for the US presidency in 1992, Bill Clinton vowed to help promote peace in Northern Ireland if elected – and he followed through, adopting a new approach that eventually granted constitutional legitimacy to the IRA as a step towards full normalization. Clinton also allowed Gerry Adams, president of the political arm of the IRA (Sinn Féin), an exemption to visit the US for 48 hours to further peace talks.
As part of the agreement, which set out a political system based on shared power, both sides committed to releasing hundreds of political prisoners and to a sweeping review of policing in Northern Ireland. The hope was that mutual recognition would pave the way for greater communal integration.
Beyond cessation of violence, what else was the Good Friday Agreement trying to achieve?
“Human rights and equality are central to the Good Friday Agreement,” says Professor Colin Harvey of Queen University’s School of Law in Belfast. Harvey, who grew up in conflict-plagued Derry in the 1970s and 80s, says that 2023 compared to the 1990s is like night and day. “Young people growing up today in cities like Belfast and Derry are growing up in a very different environment from that violence.”
“The agreement holds out a vision of a better society,” he says, adding that “the peace process is not only about ending violence but also delivering transformative change for individuals and communities.”
Much of this is still a work in progress, he notes, pointing out that Northern Ireland still doesn’t have a Bill of Rights.
The Brexit effect
The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has served as the most destabilizing force in Northern Ireland since the Troubles. That’s because most Northern Irelanders didn’t want to leave the Union — 56% voted against the move compared to 44% who backed Brexit.
The Good Friday Agreement rejected any sort of hard border between the two provinces to allow for the free flow of goods and tariff-free trade within the United Kingdom and the European Union. But by creating a hard border between the two provinces — meaning that Northern Ireland is subject to UK trade rules while Ireland remains part of the EU’s Schengen Economic Area — there are fears that age-old anxieties are remerging, putting mounting pressure on the power-sharing arrangement.
What’s more, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approach to the withdrawal agreement failed to skillfully address these sticking points and only added fuel to the fire — literally. This caused a spate of violent riots in 2021, driven in large part by extreme loyalists and disillusioned youth.
Economic disruption: Since the Belfast Agreement, the EU has doled out huge amounts of aid to Northern Ireland to help boost domestic industries and peace projects with an eye toward building and supporting a stable society.
The European Social Fund, for example, provided around €40 million ($44 million) a year for community organizations, infrastructure, and social inclusion projects but has since halted operations due to Brexit. As a result, many community centers, including those providing mental and maternal health services, now say they will be forced to shut their doors due to inadequate funding.
While London has offered some sort of alternative, “it is clear that the UK government’s replacement for this is inadequate,” Harvey says, referring to the remaining funding gap.
Political stagnation: Disagreements over how to implement a post-Brexit trade agreement have also turned Northern Ireland’s delicate political landscape upside down. The pro-British Democratic Unionist Party, the only political group that refused to back the Good Friday Agreement, has blocked the legislature from convening six times as a protest against the post-Brexit status quo.
Even after the British parliament recently passed a framework to govern post-Brexit trade rules, DUP hardliners continued to stonewall, saying that the need to follow at least some EU regulations undermines Belfast’s place within the United Kingdom.
Indeed, a dysfunctional legislature that can’t further a legislative agenda isn’t good for any society, let alone one as fractious as Northern Ireland’s.
What’s more, Westminster has been forced to pass some crucial legislation on Belfast’s behalf, including a state budget. Passing the buck for important legislation to London doesn’t bode well for the stability of the power-sharing arrangement.
But even before Brexit, Northern Ireland lacked the social cohesion that those involved in the peace process had hoped to foster.
Consider that just 7% of Northern Irish children attend integrated schools, and polls show that many kids don’t have friends from the other religious side. So-called peace walls separating Catholic and Protestant communities remain intact in many places, while separate teacher training and curricula for segregated schools reveal a still deeply divided society.
That’s in part because of a lack of political will among the province's two dominant parties — Sinn Féin, representing Irish nationalists, and the DUP, fervently loyal to the British monarchy.
Still, Harvey does not agree that the outlook for Northern Ireland is all doom and gloom. “It's important to underline that the underpinning peace process here is solid,” he says, adding, “I don’t think it is in jeopardy.”
“But in terms of societal transformation and changing the lives of individuals, there’s still much work to be done.”
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member at a position near a frontline, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 22, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky’s Bakhmut message, Rishi’s post-Brexit win, Trudeau’s take on Haiti, Ethiopia’s peace progress
Russia and Ukraine score points where they can
Volodymyr Zelensky visited frontline troops in war-ravaged Bakhmut, located in Ukraine’s eastern province of Donetsk, on Wednesday as Russian drones struck across the country. While planning for the trip was surely well underway before Vladimir Putin’s surprise stop in Russian-occupied Mariupol last weekend, the contrast underlined Zelenksy’s signal of defiance.
By appearing in Bakhmut very near the fighting, Zelensky reminded the world that, six months after Putin mobilized 300,000 new Russian soldiers for a deeper advance into Ukraine, even the small city of Bakhmut remains beyond their grasp.
In other war news, Russia has warned it will respond harshly to shipments from the UK to Ukraine of anti-tank munitions made from depleted uranium. Moscow claims this step adds an escalatory nuclear element to the conflict. In response, the UK insists the Russian position is propaganda, that the use of depleted uranium is common in anti-tank weapons, and that it contains nothing that can be used to make nuclear or radiological weapons. Finally, Russia has announced a plan to raise an additional $8 billion in revenue by changing the way oil profits are taxed.
All these stories underscore the reality that, while little has changed on the battlefield, Russians and Ukrainians are still looking for every small advantage they can gain in what looks increasingly like a war of attrition.
Has Brexit got “done” yet?
In a win for PM Rishi Sunak, the British House of Commons on Wednesday passed a reworked post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, which was agreed to last month with the European Commission.
Essentially, the proposal known as the Windsor Framework creates two lanes for trade: a faster-flowing green lane for goods transiting only between Britain and Northern Ireland and a red lane with more rigorous customs checks for goods bound for Ireland and elsewhere in the EU. It is unlikely to come into effect for several months as details are ironed out, officials say.
Still, despite the big margin of victory, more than 20 Tories – including Sunak’s two predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – voted against the measure, with Johnson saying it would mean that the UK won't be able to fully embrace the benefits of Brexit (what benefits, he didn’t say). It also signals that in the run-up to next year’s general election, Sunak will continue to deal with a vocal Euroskeptic wing within his party.
Meanwhile, six representatives from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party also rejected the vote, suggesting that the DUP would not lift its boycott on the Northern Ireland legislature, which began almost a year ago. The lack of resolution on this front will make for awkward optics as President Joe Biden heads to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles.
Trudeau’s take on Haiti
President Joe Biden heads north on Thursday for his first presidential visit to Canada, where he and PM Justin Trudeau are expected to discuss a variety of issues, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine (see our look at likely agenda items here). But Biden is also expected to make some demands about … Haiti.
The situation in the Caribbean nation has deteriorated in recent months. Police have lost control to local gangs, and more than 200 Haitians were killed in the first half of March alone.
The Biden administration is reluctant to get more involved itself but wants Canada to take the lead in addressing the chaos in Haiti. Why Canada? The country has a long track record as a peacekeeper and has had prior involvement (for better or worse) in Haiti, making it an obvious choice from Washington’s perspective. An uptick in Haitian migrants seeking entry to the US and Canada raises that urgency further.
But Trudeau says that “outside intervention” can’t bring long-term stability to the country, and it’s hard to argue with the historical record on that. Meanwhile, many in Haiti worry that outsiders would merely prop up unelected acting PM Ariel Henry. And it didn’t help that Haiti’s largest newspaper ridiculed the recent deployment of two Canadian ships to patrol the coast.
All of this puts Trudeau in a tough spot: Biden wants him to be a reliable security partner beyond Ukraine, but the political fallout from a failed entanglement in Haiti could be disastrous for him. While the Canadian leader will likely make a commitment of some sort for Haiti, will it be enough to satisfy Biden or change the dynamics in Haiti itself?
*From trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology, the US and Canada need each other more than ever. To meet the moment, GZERO Media is launching GZERO North, a new weekly newsletter offering an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today!
Ethiopia, TPLF take steps in tenuous peace
The Ethiopian government is removing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from its list of terrorist organizations, part of a peace deal with the rebel group signed last November. The decision moves the country closer to what observers hope is an enduring peace after a brutal two-year civil war that has claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
The situation is very delicate. The agreements don’t include all of the various combatants and are vague about who controls certain disputed territories. And while all sides reportedly committed war crimes, many Tigrayans believe the deal doesn’t hold the Ethiopian federal government accountable. PM Abiy Ahmed’s resistance to a UN investigation inspires little hope.
Still, the momentum is towards peace, for now. Economic interests are part of the reason why. Ethiopia is in bad shape, as the country is wracked by famine, drought, and an estimated reconstruction price tag of $20 billion. A lasting peace would enable Ethiopia to reopen two-year-old talks with the IMF on a $26 billion loan restructuring plan, which was interrupted by the war. Still, with so much bad blood – will these incentives be enough to bind the former combatants to a durable peace? All parties must still tread very carefully …
Israelis demonstrate during "Day of Resistance" as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition government presses on with its contentious judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel.
What We’re Watching: Chaos in Israel, Franco-British thaw, Trump's deepening legal woes, Biden’s budget battle
Israel’s unraveling
The situation in Israel continued to unravel on Thursday when protesters against the government’s planned judicial overhaul took to the streets in a national “day of resistance.” In a bid to create a balagan (state of chaos), Israelis blocked the Ayalon Highway, a main artery leading to Tel Aviv’s international airport, to try to disrupt PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s planned trip to Rome (he got out)! Indeed, footage shows police using heavy-handed tactics to break up the crowds, but that didn’t appear tough enough for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who proceeded to fire the Tel Aviv district commander, decrying police for “not fulfilling my orders.” Israel's attorney general has since ordered the freezing of the police chief's ouster, citing legal concerns. Meanwhile, in a very rare emotional speech, President Isaac Herzog – who holds a mostly ceremonial position and remains above the fray of day-to-day politics – urged the government to ditch the judicial reforms. Crucially, things took a turn for the worse Thursday night when a Palestinian gunman opened fire on gatherers in central Tel Aviv, wounding at least three people. With deepening twin crises at home – a constitutional catastrophe and deteriorating security situation – Bibi is going to have a harder time than ever keeping his discordant far-right coalition intact.
Are French-UK relations back on track?
After years of tension, UK-France relations appear to be on the mend! British PM Rishi Sunak travelled to France on Friday to meet with President Emmanuel Macron for the first summit between the countries in … five years. “It’s the beginning of a beautiful, renewed friendship,” a French diplomat said, which was presumably a dig at former PM Boris Johnson, who butted heads with Macron. What's on the agenda? Maintaining a united front against Russia, post-Brexit fishing rights in the English Channel (see this explainer on the great roe row here) and climate change mitigation. Crucially, they are also focusing on how to tackle an influx of migrants arriving by boat through the English Channel. After Sunak this week unveiled fresh legislation that would ban migrants who enter illegally from applying for asylum, a move broadly condemned as a violation of international law, London confirmed Friday that it will offer Paris a lot of cash to help patrol French beaches, which is where most small boats headed for the UK come from. While this meeting is mostly about showing the world that relations are warm and fuzzy, the timing is still a bit awkward: On Monday, Sunak will appear in San Diego along with President Joe Biden and Australian PM Anthony Albanese to unveil the next stage of the AUKUS agreement, the trilateral security pact that incensed the French who were pushed to the side.
Trump may soon face criminal charges
Is an indictment looming? Manhattan prosecutors offered former President Donald Trump the opportunity to testify before a grand jury that’s looking into his business dealings, including alleged payment of hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The offer to testify – most potential defendants decline – usually signals that an indictment is about to drop. Trump is expected to steer clear of the grand jury, but his lawyers will be fighting in his corner and meeting with the District Attorney’s office in a bid to dodge criminal charges. If they fail, Trump may become the first former US president to face indictment – and the NY-based case could be just the start. District Attorney prosecutors in Georgia are also investigating and expected to bring charges against Trump for alleged interference in the 2020 election, while federal prosecutors are investigating his bid to undermine the election outcome. Whatever happens, No. 45 says he will stay in the 2024 presidential race, and experts say there’s nothing legally barring him from running, even if he’s convicted.
Biden’s budget blast
The US president on Thursday unveiled a $6.8 trillion budget proposal that would beef up the military, protect and expand social programs, and slash the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. How? By raising a slew of taxes on wealthier Americans (those who make more than $400 grand a year) and slapping a 25% tax on the wealth of billionaires. The budget as it currently stands has no chance of passing the GOP-controlled House — Speaker Kevin McCarthy immediately slammed the budget as “unserious” — but Biden knows that. The proposal is an opening salvo in what will be a bruising battle with Republicans, who say they want a balanced budget in order to raise the debt ceiling but have yet to produce a viable plan of their own. As Biden eyes 2024, that fiscal fight — in which he’ll highlight his progressive spending priorities — will be one of the cornerstones of his campaign.
India's G-20 agenda overshadowed by Ukraine war
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Delhi, India.
What was the outcome of the foreign ministers meeting of the G-20 countries here the other day?
Well, the Indians are trying to get the G-20 to focus on food security, energy security, to be the voice of the Global South in a complicated global situation. But of course, the meeting was dominated by the controversy over Russia's war with Ukraine. And while the Indonesian chairmanship last year managed to get the agreement on the text on that particular issue, this time the Russians, followed by the Chinese, are distinctly not. And the end result was there was no agreement. The Indians, anyhow, issued a communique noting that the Russians and the Chinese did not object and tried to focus the meeting as much as they could on issues that they considered important, rightly so, for the Global South in terms of the effect of the conflict.
Is the Brexit story over?
No, no, the Brexit story ain't over. But hopefully there is a solution to the issue of trade with Northern Ireland. And Prime Minister Sunak is saying that Northern Ireland has a unique position having access or could have access both to the British market, you know, rest of the United Kingdom and of course through the integrated European EU market. It doesn't really mention that that is something that the United Kingdom as a whole could have had had it not done the rather stupid move of Brexit some years ago.