Cost of Christmas dinner rises despite falls in food inflation

• The cost of Christmas dinner has gone up by 11% for a turkey meal and the nut roast vegetarian/vegan option compared to 2022
• Turkey and nut roast meals up 29% and 32% since 2021
• ii shares tips to save on the cost of Christmas dinner.

The cost of Christmas dinner is set to rise by 11% this year compared to last December despite recent falls in food inflation, according to new analysis by interactive investor, the UK’s second-largest investment platform for private clients.

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The average price of a turkey meal with all the trimmings and a few extras that feeds a family of four has risen to £89.05 this festive season from £80.11. The increase over two years is starker – up 29% since Christmas 2021 from £69.22.

The cost of a vegetarian/vegan nut roast option has also increased by 11% to £51.75 from 2022 and 32% from 2021.

Recent data from Kantar showed UK grocery price inflation fell in October to below 10% for the first time since July 2022, but households are continuing to tackle high prices in the run up to Christmas.

Our Christmas dinner inflation shopping basket comprises of typical Christmas dinner ingredients based on the Christmas shopping habits of the ii team. It includes a few guilty pleasures and Christmas luxury items to feed a family of four.

While we’ve gone for some ‘Tesco finest’ and other Christmas treats such as goose fat, we’ve also mixed it up with some basics. We believe it is not unusual for shoppers to mix and match from different ranges, depending on their tastes/priorities and budgets.

What’s gone up most in price?

Comparing the prices of the goods in our inflation shopping basket from the festive period in 2022, interactive investor’s analysis found the price of our sample free range turkey rose by 11% or £40, while the cost of our nut roast option for vegetarians and vegans has gone up by 4% (50p) for two nut roasts (enough to feed a family).

Maris piper potatoes have seen the largest price increase in percentage terms (albeit from a lower price point) – up 68%. However, not every component of Christmas dinner is more expensive. The cost of carrots and parsnips are down 4% and 3% respectively.

Our guilty pleasures options have also seen some price increases – notably Shloer (up 117%), After Eight mints (up 20%) and Brie (up 11%).

When it comes to dessert, the cost of our example Christmas pudding has gone up by 12.5%, but the cost gluten-free ‘free from’ chocolate sponge option is unchanged.

Myron Jobson, Senior Personal Finance Analyst, interactive investor, says: “Inflation will once again be on the menu at many Christmas gatherings this year – which is increasingly difficult for households to stomach after being force-fed a diet of higher costs for a prolonged period.

“Increases in energy and labour costs are key factors that have inflated the cost of Christmas dinner, with inflation on the traditional turkey meal outstripping that on the vegetarian/vegan nut roast option, according to our analysis. Of course, our method is not an exact science, and the eclectic mix of items should remind us that the experiences of rising costs is unique to each individual. Where you shop will determine the cost of your festive feast.

“We are getting some relief from higher costs as food inflation is cooling – but this doesn’t mean that prices are falling. A slowing or falling inflation rate means that prices are rising more slowly than before.

“Loyalty cards and schemes is set to have a telling impact on Christmas dinner spend this year. For example, the Tesco turkey in our sample shopping basket is £1.50 per kilogram cheaper for Clubcard holders. Customer loyalty deals have conspicuously become more attractive following an investigation by the UK’s competition regulator into whether supermarkets were unduly profiteering from pushing up grocery prices. The probe found that there was no evidence to support the assertion but called for reform on how retailers price their goods.

“Many people won’t want to scrimp on the big festive meal, but it is important to live within your means to avoid a post-Christmas debt hangover.”

Alice Guy, Head of Pensions and Savings, interactive investor, says: “With food costs skyrocketing, it’s not easy to save money when it comes to Christmas. Extra food, drink and presents all mount up and it’s easy to end up spending more than your budget.

“For people on a low income, like young families and pensioners it can be especially stressful time of year. Sitting down and working out a budget for the Christmas meal can help you feel more in control and help make your money stretch further.

“As a mum of four older children, spending on Christmas food and presents can really mount up. My daughter has coeliac disease, which means we have to buy gluten-free food. That does mean extra cost at Christmas because she can’t eat the same stuffing or Christmas pudding or gravy, and gluten-free options are often much more expensive.

“There can be a huge pressure to make the main meal very complicated, with many added extras. But, for me, keeping the main meal fairly simple not only saves money, but means everyone can spend more time together and less time cooking.

“When it comes to food, most supermarkets offer a range of options, from value to premium ranges. Choosing the value ranges can save a huge amount when it comes to the final bill. Another money-saving tip is to swap your Christmas turkey for a chicken or another meat. There’s often a premium on Christmas products, and other meats can work out much cheaper per portion.”

Myron’s tips to save on the cost of Christmas dinner:

1. Plan your menu: make a shopping list to avoid impulse purchases.

2. Set a budget: determine how much you can afford to spend on ingredients and stick to it.

3. Check your pantry and fridge for any ingredients you already have. No need to double up on stuff you already own.

4 Bargain hunt: look for deals on ingredients and make use of loyalty cards and schemes.

5. If you're hosting a big gathering, don't be shy to ask your guests to bring a dish to share. It lightens your cooking load and spreads the costs.

6.  Reduce waste: plan portion sizes to minimise leftovers, or have a plan for using them in future meals.

7. Consider alternatives: explore using other proteins and ingredients not traditional present in a Christmas meal as they can be cost-effective and appealing to a variety of guests.

Family turkey feast

*Lower price of £42.50 available for Clubcard members.
Source: interactive investor. Prices accurate to 9 November 2023

Family vegetarian/vegan feast

Source: interactive investor. Prices accurate to 9 November 2023.