Temporal fluctuations appearing in the summer monsoon over India are investigated by using the data of 1962. By the method of spectrum analysis, it is revealed that two major periodicities exist, at least, in the temporal fluctuation of the monsoon. One is the oscillation around 5 days period and the other is around 15 days pericd.
The oscillation around 5 days period appears mainly in the range from the north Bay of Bengal through the monsoon trough region in northern India. The structure of the disturbance which causes this periodicity is examined by the method of cross spectrum analysis. The results show that the disturbance is a westward-moving one and its longitudinal wavelength is about 30°. This disturbance seems to represent the so-called monsoon low. The vertical structure of these monsoon lows indicates that their cyclonic circulation is prevailing in the lower troposphere and the axis of the trough slightly tilts westward. Moreover, the monsoon low is accompanied with a distinct warm core in the upper troposphere. In the lower levels, the amplitude of the temperature is mall and the disturbance is neither warmnor cold cored. It is also shown that the monsoon low has a steering level at the height around 500mb level.
The oscillation around 15 days period is revealed to be in connection with the active/weak cycle of monsoon. The intense wind fluctuations associated with this cycle appear both in the upper and the lower troposphere, being in phase with each other. At the stage of active monsoon, it is revealed that the area with cyclonic circulation is formed over the Bay of Bengal. This cyclonic circulation is accompanied with cold temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere and warm anomalies in the upper levels. Besides, it is also shown that the depth of the moist layer over the Bay increases at this stage. These situations strongly suggest that the active monsoon condition over India is characterized by the enhanced convective activity over the Bay. Nearly opposite situations occur at the stage of weak monsoon and the anticyclonic circulation is formed over the Bay. The latitudinal shift of monsoon trough can be explained by superposing these two circulations on the distribution of the mean flow.
The transition between the active and the weak stage is also investigated by applying the time-composite technique to the time series of surface pressure anomalies. At the stage of active monsoon, a large low pressure area is formed over the Bay of Bengal and the high pressure anomalies appear at the weak stage. By examining the time sequences of this transition, it is shown that a pair of high- and low pressure anomalies rotate clockwise over the wide area including the Bay of Bengal, Tibetan Plateau, whole Indian subcontinent and Indo-China. As for the nature of this rotation, it is suggested that the north-south standing oscillation between Tibetan Plateau and the Bay of Bengal together with the east-west one between Indo-China and the Indian continent can cause the clockwise rotation mentioned above. It is also discussed that these oscillations seem of reflect the temporal variations of the intensity of the mean meridional- and the mean zonal circulation cells respectively.