How can you identify and overcome cognitive biases in analytical problem solving?

El sesgo de confirmación es un error cognitivo que implica buscar información que respalde nuestras creencias actuales y descartar la que las contradice. Este sesgo puede tener un impacto en nuestras opiniones, decisiones y cómo percibimos la realidad. Este sesgo se manifiesta cuando prestamos atención de forma selectiva a la información que respalda nuestras ideas mientras ignoramos la información que no comulga con ellas. Por ejemplo, interpretaremos el bostezo de alguien como prueba de que somos aburridos si creemos que somos aburridos. Sin embargo, con conciencia, apertura mental y evaluación crítica de la información, podemos reducir los efectos del sesgo de confirmación y obtener una visión más objetiva y equilibrada de la realidad.

Foremost, humans are designed to interpret things based on the existing knowledge they have. In fact, to understand a new concept is to first align it with your old concepts. This therefore unintentionally births confirmation bias in us. To overcome this type of bias, we could adopt philosophical approach and scientific objectivity. The philosophical approach implies questioning other people’s perceptions and seeing things from different perspectives. Meanwhile, the scientific objectivity accounts for an attempt to uncover truths by eliminating personal bias, emotions, and dogmatic beliefs. Just like the common mantra we remind ourselves in scientific research, “Do not fall in love with your hypothesis.”

The first step is to know what cognitive biases are and to be honest and recognize when you are making one! Wikipedia has an entry for this topic. Hence, print it out and use it to make a check list when you are analyzing data and trying to make some decision. Again, honesty is critical here. If you are not honest with yourself, you certainly won't be honest when reporting or discussing your results or analyses with a boss, client, or another colleague. Remember all statistical samples contain some kind of bias. You typically can't sample everything and get all the data you would like to have. You just have to deal with the situation and be honest.

In my experience by far confirmation bias is associate with biological research where the researchers who proclaim themselves as "pure" biologists & rigid by not incorporating a team members from pharmaceutical chemistry/Organic/Medicinal chemists in the Drug Screening resulting in numerous High Quality, High Impact Factor journal publications without having any real impact on the Scienceor Society as such.. example. Curcumin from Turmeric was associated with numerous health benefits by extrapolating cell assays without acknowledging the evidence present at Medicinal Chemistry domain that curcumin is a PAIN compound (PAN Assay INterfearing). Interdisciplinary approach by creating multispecialists team is a way to avoid confirmation bias.

To address confirmation bias in our daily work life, it is crucial to reflect on our own assumptions and practice active listening. Set aside time to question personal perspectives and engage in open conversations with diverse viewpoints. Personally, I enjoy taking on the role of devil's advocate to challenge and strengthen arguments and new ideas. We should all aim to develop and foster a work culture of diversity and inclusion, incorporating a wide range of ideas and perspectives.

Critical appraisal of the collected data is important to maintain the power and the quality of the outcome. Any data must be assessed by multiple blinded assessors to prevent any kind of bias that might influence the study.

El sesgo de anclaje es un fenómeno psicológico que nos lleva a confiar demasiado en la información inicial que recibimos para tomar decisiones. Este sesgo puede llevarnos a tomar decisiones incorrectas y hacer interpretaciones ilógicas o sin sentido. Para superar el sesgo de anclaje, es crucial seguir estos métodos: Identifica el anclaje en tus decisiones y pregúntate si este es relevante para la elección que estás tomando. Una vez que identifiques el anclaje, cuestiónalo y busca diferentes perspectivas y opciones: esto es esencial para superarlo Finalmente Solicita información adicional, compara varias fuentes y datos para obtener una comprensión más completa.

Actively ask oneself: 1) "What else?", 2) "Is this all?" 3) "What is the frame of consideration?" 4) "Where does this input lie in the scenario?"

According to the work of Immanuel Kant (Kritik der Urteilskraft) our brain has two main functions to process and conclude new information: (1) Induction, this means we conclude from observations of a small amount of cases to all cases. Most famous is "all swans are white". This false conclusion can be corrected when you see a black swan. (2) Analogies, it means we look for examples, which are analogue to our observation. Famous example ist the solar system and the construction of a chemical atom. If we are aware of these two main functions, we are able to critically questioning our conclusions.

1 Recognize your biases. ... 2 Seek diverse perspectives. ... 3 Test your hypotheses. ... 4 Reframe your problems. ... 5 Review your decisions. ... 6 Develop your mindset. ... 7 Here's what else to consider.

Train yourself to always "ask the next question." This can be faciliated by a tool like 5 Whys, but can also be as simple as intentionally reframing to see if there is value to that perspective. Also, if possible, include various people and viewpoints. More mistakes are made because the problem was poorly defined than nearly anything else.

En situaciones de problemas complejos, es crucial incorporar plenamente los recursos de conocimiento y experiencia disponibles. Preferiblemente sin distorsiones. Encontramos valiosos conocimientos desde diversas perspectivas en las mentes de nuestros colegas y equipos, y estamos bien aconsejados cuando inicialmente los recopilamos sin filtrar ni negociar. Luego, se debe realizar una separación en elementos de requisitos y elementos de solución. Estos pueden ser evaluados desde diferentes perspectivas en términos de acuerdo y relevancia. Para evitar el sesgo de encuadre, es importante no discutir soluciones completas demasiado pronto, sino trabajar juntos desde los detalles para lograr un resultado.

Cuando las personas toman decisiones o interpretan información basándose en cómo se presenta o enmarca en lugar del contenido o los hechos reales, se desarrolla el sesgo de encuadre. Este sesgo tiene un impacto significativo en nuestras percepciones, juicios y decisiones. Para lidiar con el sesgo de encuadre, se pueden utilizar las siguientes técnicas: Reconoce si hay sesgo de encuadre en tus decisiones y pregúntate si la forma en que se presenta la información está afectando tu juicio; si es así intenta ver la situación desde diferentes puntos de vista para tomar una decisión más racional. Para ello es esencial fomentar una mentalidad crítica y analítica que te ayudará a cuestionar tus creencias y a considerar diferentes puntos de vista.

Framing bias comes much more upstream than many analysts usually realize. Starting as soon as we decide which questions to ask and which questions we leave in the cabinet. Depending on the questions that we ask then we look for the data that answers these questions and then we infer conclusions based on the available data. For avoiding this bias try asking more questions to your stakeholders, once you think you understood the problem, keep asking questions.

Critically look out for the specific influence and the trigger behind; reframe tactically; look out for similar words with different weightage..

It's important to note that not all biases are negative or harmful; some can be benign or even beneficial in certain contexts. However, the challenge lies in being aware of our biases and understanding how they influence our perceptions and decisions. Recognizing and addressing biases, especially those that lead to unfair or prejudiced outcomes, is crucial for personal growth and social equity.

It’s always very important to use tools as risk assessment together with a multiple team with different knowledge levels to increase the consistency of the topic.

Para identificar y superar sesgos cognitivos en la resolución de problemas, es esencial la autoconciencia y la apertura mental. Un ejemplo claro es el sesgo de confirmación: tendemos a prestar atención solo a la información que respalda nuestras creencias. Desde una perspectiva neurocientífica, esto ocurre porque el cerebro busca eficiencia, favoreciendo patrones conocidos. Para contrarrestarlo, debemos desafiar nuestras propias creencias, buscando y considerando datos contradictorios. Esta práctica promueve un pensamiento crítico y decisiones mejor informadas y reconocer que podemos estar equivocados, evitar el dolor del orgullo al equivocarse porque el norte que debemos buscar es lograr la mejor solución basada en evidencia.

I think that it is the most difficult to identify, because it challenge our habits and our routine. The role and the most important skill of a leader of the trouble shooting team is just to challenge the members to not simply stay in their confident way to work.

Judging likelihood based on easily recalled examples, can be mitigated by relying on data and statistics instead of memory. Techniques like sampling or simulation help estimate probabilities of rare events.

Believing in predicting outcomes after they occur, can be addressed by documenting assumptions, expectations, and reasoning before events. Debriefing and feedback loops aid in identifying and correcting errors and biases.

El sesgo retrospectivo, nos lleva a creer que podríamos haber previsto un suceso o que era inevitable un evento, después de que ha ocurrido lo que afecta la toma de decisiones en el futuro. Por ejemplo, cuando sucede un desastre, tendemos a pensar que los líderes y los expertos deberían haberlo previsto. Para superar el sesgo retrospectivo, podemos utilizar las siguientes técnicas: Reconocer si al tomar decisiones estás reinterpretando el pasado basándote en lo que ahora sabes. Fomenta el pensamiento crítico y la mentalidad analítica. Esto te ayudará a cuestionar tus creencias y a considerar diferentes puntos de vista. y perspectivas diferentes. Siempre es bueno solicitar información adicional e investigar más allá de los datos iniciales.

Bringing the hindsight to the table can help get some facts, to reflect if the pattern actually exist else receive fresh insights to alternate possibilities.

El sesgo retrospectivo, como explica Daniel Kahneman, distorsiona nuestra percepción al creer que sabíamos el resultado de un evento después de que ocurrió. Esta ilusión de clarividencia puede afectar la toma de decisiones futuras al crear una sensación de inevitabilidad. Para contrarrestar este sesgo, es crucial documentar expectativas y razonamientos antes y después del evento, permitiendo una comparación objetiva. Técnicas como el debriefing, la reflexión consciente y la búsqueda activa de retroalimentación ayudan a identificar y corregir errores, reduciendo la influencia del sesgo retrospectivo en nuestras decisiones.

The tendency to think you know everything is deep inside all of us. We are used to do pre-judgements based on our background information even in our eyevyday life. One solution to avoid errors ot deviations in a project as a result of this 'Narcissism' type of the conflict, is to consider some short courses in psychology for the project people, particularly the younger ones. The other solution would be combining the young and more-trained people in the small group in order to gradually transfer the maturity to the group.

my opinion (biased of course!) is that 1-4 above reflect how every problem is more complex than we realize (or admit) and humans prefer not to deal with the "known unknowns" let alone even acknowledge or attempt to deal with the "unknown unknowns"...because they are not trained or do not know how to apply critical thinking and systems thinking. Hindsight bias simply involves evaluating the subset of that complexity that would have supported 1-4. I have concerns that many of the advanced technologies only further support these biases as their validation comes mainly from more efficiently reproducing things that we already think we know....especially in critical domains like medicine.

Often times, analyzing a problem in a team and using simple techniques like a fishbone-diagram or the 5-Why method can mitigate these biases. Additionally, it helps to formulate a problem statement that is as neutral and factual as possible and does not already imply certain root causes or solutions.

A degree of self-awareness is important, including ironically, being aware that there is much we are unaware of. Thinking about where we've come from, background, role models, beliefs, attitudes, leanings, interests, life script decions, conditions of worth, etc etc is helpful, but by its very nature will only allow you to develop increased awareness to a point. Key is to have trusted relationships with others that can provide a constructive enquiry and challenge, alternative perspectives and viewpoints to consider. Opportunity to review decisions, how and why they were made, the impact and ripples, experiences of others etc, all add helpful reflection and growing awareness.

try not to have just one picture in mind about solutions for the problem. Successful people are flexible in thinking, see the many ways to reach a target, and the fun in doing the journey. Succesful people understand their own limitation and are trained in self-reflection. Self-reflected people are resiliant, and resiliance supports success!

J'ai fait plusieurs fois l'expérience d'un biais apparenté au bien de disponibilité mais un peu différent. Comment notre mémoire récente tend à occulter/ prendre le pas sur la mémoire plus ancienne (la dernière note ratée du concert qui a tout "gâché"). ou comment notre mémoire qui est un processus permanent tend à réorganiser les faits tels qu'ils sont perçus rétroactivement (et cela continue au cours du temps !). Le contournement du biais est possible avec la vigilance de l'animateur et en demandant aux participants de revivre plutôt que de se souvenir.