How can you use threat modeling to stay ahead of emerging threats?

A great compliment to this is to establish a red cell of employees who will play the “threat” so you can’t simply wish your way out of challenges. The red cell will create unplanned moves in your response plan execution so you can find holes in your plan before you have to use them for real.

Threat modelling should start by understanding potential threat actors and their motivations. What do they want to achieve? How could they accomplish their goals? This requires a comprehensive understanding of any potential physical and/ or digital pathways they could use to achieve their target. Including third party services.

Threat modeling is a proactive approach to security that helps organizations and individuals identify potential threats and vulnerabilities in their systems, applications, or processes. By staying ahead of emerging threats, you can better protect your assets and mitigate risks. 1. Identify your assets: 2. Understand the architecture: 3. Identify potential threats: 4. Assess vulnerabilities: 5. Prioritize threats: 6. Mitigate and design countermeasures: 7. Review and iterate: 8. Keep yourself updated . 9. Collaborate and share knowledge threat modeling is not a one-time activity but an iterative process that should be integrated into your organization's overall security practices.

And in order to make it more simpler, it's like you play chess with a computer and thinking about all the bad moves, that computer system can make and already planning your defence on each step. Likewise, we should know our attack surface, scope, inventory and most rampant, frequent, possible and plausible ways attacks can happen or threats may arise from and likewise we should put together control to protect our environment.

A robust threat modeling strategy involves identifying potential threats, assessing their impact, and implementing safeguards. Start by defining assets, then identify and prioritize potential threats. Evaluate vulnerabilities and potential consequences. Finally, implement countermeasures and regularly review and update the threat model to adapt to evolving risks.

Thread modelling helps you understand the current system/application architecture, its data flow and all the vulnerabilities associated with that in top of current controls in place so that it can be addressed in advance before thread actors can take advantage of those vulnerabilities. Thread modelling strengthens security posture for an organisation proactively so that an organisation can take informed decisions and get prepared for the worst situation if that occurs.

Threat modeling is instrumental in preempting cyber threats by simulating potential attack scenarios. In my experience, this approach allows for the identification and mitigation of vulnerabilities before they can be exploited, enhancing overall security posture.

Threat modelling allows for teams to explore the "what if" moments that can threaten normal business operations. It goes hand in hand with risk management practices. It is recommended that businesses regularly review their operating environment as conditions, technology, people change over time. Particularly they should look at critical single points of failure and develop mitigation strategies to minimise their exposure to these risks.

Threat modelling can benefit from an outside perspective. This can be garnered from competitors in your sector, where all boats rise and all boats sink. This may be available through working groups in industry organisations.

Threat modeling is crucial because it shifts the focus from reactive to proactive security measures. By systematically identifying potential threats and vulnerabilities before they are exploited, organizations can develop robust countermeasures. This anticipatory approach not only helps prevent security incidents but also enhances overall system resilience. Threat modeling fosters a deeper understanding of the system's security landscape, allowing for strategic decision-making and resource allocation. It ultimately empowers organizations to stay ahead of emerging threats, reducing the likelihood and impact of security breaches, and safeguarding sensitive information and stakeholders.

Creating and maintaining a dynamic document to map threats to system components is crucial. For a risk-centric approach, I advocate for tools like PASTA (Process for Attack Simulation and Threat Analysis). PASTA combines threat modeling and risk analysis to evaluate threats based on risk exposure. Alternatively, OWASP Threat Dragon, an open-source tool, offers visual threat model diagrams. It assists in identifying software vulnerabilities and promotes collaborative threat assessment within teams. Consider looking beyond conventional threats like unauthorized access and data breaches to ensure a comprehensive analysis.

To effectively use threat modeling frameworks, follow these steps: Select a Framework: Choose a threat modeling framework that aligns with your organization's needs and goals, such as STRIDE, DREAD, or OCTAVE. Identify Assets: Clearly define the assets you want to protect, such as data, systems, or intellectual property. Define Threats: Enumerate potential threats and vulnerabilities relevant to your assets. Assess Risks: Evaluate the severity and likelihood of each threat. Prioritize them based on the potential impact. Mitigation Strategies: Develop and implement mitigation strategies for identified risks. Iterate: Regularly revisit and update the threat model to adapt to evolving threats and changes in the system or environment.

I am particularly intrigued by organizations taking the lead in developing threat modeling frameworks for others to adopt. Worth exploring for me are; 1. ATMP (Application Thread Modeling Process) by the Open Web Application Security Project and 2. CSF (NIST Cyber Security Framework) by the National Institute of Science and Technology. Given the difficulty in developing their own frameworks, organizations that are new to this can benefit a lot by exploring these frameworks and either adopting or learning from them on a best-practice basis.

Threat modeling network can be used near the end of an ISO 27005 risk management process (before reviewing risk treatment options). Frameworks are usefull but they are only tools, a strong expertise of attacks technics is needed to get the most realistic view.

Drawing on my experience, effective use of threat modeling frameworks involves a thorough understanding of the system, choosing a suitable framework, engaging diverse stakeholders, and documenting identified threats and mitigation strategies. Prioritizing threats, integrating the process into the development lifecycle, and regular updates are crucial. Training the team, validating assumptions, and transparently communicating results contribute to a proactive approach in addressing security vulnerabilities, reflecting a successful and iterative integration of threat modeling into the overall development process.

Threat modeling diagrams serve as visual roadmaps for understanding and addressing security concerns within a system. Begin by visually depicting system components, like servers and databases, along with their interactions, illustrating data flows and communication paths. Clearly demarcate trust boundaries to signify different security zones. Annotate assets and highlight data flows to emphasize the movement of sensitive information. Leverage the diagram as a tool for identifying potential threats and vulnerabilities within the system. Additionally, use the diagram as a communication aid, facilitating discussions among stakeholders to ensure a collective understanding of security considerations and mitigation strategies.

To effectively leverage threat modeling diagrams, it is crucial to incorporate them early in the development process, promoting collaboration among team members with diverse expertise, prioritizing the safeguarding of critical assets, conducting scenario-based analyses to gain a realistic understanding of threats, regularly updating models to adapt to evolving threats and changes, considering external factors such as regulations, utilizing automation for efficient threat identification, providing team members with comprehensive training and education, ensuring clear documentation and communication of identified threats, and seamlessly integrating the threat modeling process into existing development tools and workflows.

Utilize threat modeling reports to succinctly convey the outcomes of your threat analysis. Begin by summarizing identified threats, vulnerabilities, and their potential impact on assets. Clearly articulate prioritized risks and recommended mitigation strategies. Document the current status of mitigation actions and progress made. Tailor the report to the audience, ensuring it is accessible to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. Regularly update the report to reflect changes in the threat landscape and the evolving security posture of the system, fostering ongoing awareness and informed decision-making.

Once potential threats are identified, they can be prioritized based on their likelihood and potential impact. This helps in focusing resources on the most significant threats, which is crucial when dealing with emerging threats that may not yet be widely understood or detected.

Preventing and analyzing threats in an environment is a plan that should be made up members that is a team. It is like using the nursing process to assess the threat and finally eliminate it. Your plan has to be so tight that the severity is minimal. There must be periodical drills yearly to perfect the threat plan.

Reports should include a detailed follow-up section for monitoring and reassessing threats over time, reflecting any changes in the system or emerging threats. There should also be a section for lessons learned, summarizing key insights gained during the threat modeling process. Also, incorporating feedback mechanisms for stakeholders to contribute to continuous improvement of security measures.

Graphical threat models can be an effective way to focus attention on safer or more productive solutions. It can also show the limitations of fixed factors.

Threat modeling is a great tool to deal with uncertainty, however, real life events require innovative and rapid responses so experimentation is the key to succeeding in a uncertain environment. Recent Silkyara-Barkot tunnel collapses that trapped 41 laborers is one great example of how experimentation of various types of tunnel rescue techniques such as vertical and horizontal failed to yield results, whereas and age old drilling technique called rat-hole mining technique came to the rescue of the trapped 41 laborers. While modeling or responding use of experiments and learning from history is immensely useful.

So question is how to use it to say ahead and prevent 1. Clearly identify threat parameters and indicators that are relevant. Don't just scratch the surface but don't go in deep granularity. You need to strike the balance. 2. Methodology should rely on data and past analysis. Which were the first indicators, the main indicators, sequence, etc. 3. If you use methodology you got from somewhere else, fine but evaluate and adapt for your case and business. 4. Predictability means be able to forsee. No crystal balls pure data and logic. Utilize machine learning models and Artificial Intelligence. You need the incentive the early warning. 5. Have dedicated team for that or owner at least.

I strongly advocate for the implementation of Honeypots in all organizations. Honeypots act as deceptive systems crafted to identify, divert, or analyze unauthorized attempts within information systems. Both Production and Research Honeypots offer invaluable insights into attackers' methods, aiding in fortifying our defense strategies and contributing to threat modeling. I've extensively detailed our experiences with Honeypots in my publication, 'Collating Threat Intelligence for Zero Trust Future Using Open-Source Tools' - ISBN-10: 8770224234. However, it's important to note that deploying and managing honeypots demands meticulous configuration and vigilant monitoring to mitigate potential security risks.

Em um mundo cada vez mais tecnológico é de extrema importância que as Organizações estejam atentas as novidades/tendencias em relação os desenvolvimentos em segurança cibernética para garantir que as práticas de modelagem de ameaças praticadas estejam alinhadas com os desafios contemporâneos.