How do you communicate uncertainty and risk in evidence synthesis for policy?

2 Use appropriate methods

There are various methods and tools to assess and quantify uncertainty and risk in evidence synthesis, such as confidence intervals, sensitivity analysis, meta-analysis, or GRADE. Choose the ones that are suitable for your data, your research question, and your audience, and follow the standards and guidelines for their application and reporting. Explain how you used these methods, and what they show about the uncertainty and risk of the evidence.

3 Visualize the data

Visual aids can help you communicate uncertainty and risk more clearly and effectively than text or numbers alone. For example, you can use graphs, charts, maps, or icons to show the distribution, range, variation, or probability of the data, or to compare different scenarios, options, or outcomes. However, be careful not to mislead, confuse, or overwhelm your audience with too much or too complex information. Use simple, consistent, and accurate visuals, and provide captions, labels, and legends to explain them.

4 Use plain language

Avoid jargon, acronyms, or technical terms that your audience may not understand or may interpret differently. Use clear, simple, and precise language to describe the evidence, the uncertainty, and the risk. Avoid vague or ambiguous words, such as "possible", "likely", or "may", that can create confusion or misunderstanding. Instead, use quantifiers, such as "10%", "50%", or "90%", to express the degree of uncertainty or risk, and explain what they mean in context.

5 Frame the message

The way you present the evidence, the uncertainty, and the risk can influence how your audience perceives and reacts to them. For example, you can use positive or negative framing, such as "saving lives" or "avoiding deaths", to emphasize the benefits or costs of using the evidence. You can also use narrative or analytical framing, such as "stories" or "facts", to appeal to the emotions or logic of your audience. However, be aware of the potential biases or effects of framing, and avoid manipulating or misleading your audience.

6 Engage with your audience

Communication is not a one-way process, but a dialogue between you and your audience. Therefore, you need to consider their needs, expectations, preferences, and perspectives when communicating uncertainty and risk. For example, you can ask them what they want to know, how they want to receive the information, and how they use it for decision making. You can also invite them to ask questions, provide feedback, or share their opinions and experiences. This way, you can build trust, rapport, and understanding with your audience.