What are some best practices for creating and using scenarios that reflect your values and principles?

I recommend making a document for leadership that, based on the organisational values, puts guardrails in place for how you want to act in different scenarios. When you have a first draft, you can test it by taking a few hypothetical scenarios and running a workshop where you discuss the response you will take if you follow the document and if that is what you believe is best. Defining and ensuring everyone is on the same page about your guardrails and any red lines ahead of a situation will limit the risk of emotions taking over or that you act inconsistently depending on who is in charge.

1) Explore the world from our youth's perspective to get a sense of the future, both the good and bad bits. Talk to the 15-20-year-olds today, who will be creating our world, country, and community, positively or negatively, in 20 years' time. 2) Listen to those not from our team/company/industry. For example, our blue-collared colleagues/workers may have in-depth perspectives as they are on the ground most of the time. The issue here is they are unlikely to speak up or share the problems with managers. 3) See "op-ed pieces" on LinkedIn and/or Tiktok, and then Google for data/research which may provide evidence on the signal. E.g., Tiktok videos can push the trends out fast and furious, such as quiet quitting and bare minimium Mondays.

Having a stakeholder map to start from when you do your analysis is helpful. Taking inspiration from systems thinking, you can also look at how your different stakeholders and groups relate and what perspectives are important for each. Diverse teams and representation across stakeholder groups are also very helpful.

This is another area where philosophy and foresight go well together. Philosophers often use thought experiments to test principles. Once a scenario is created, thought experiments that reflect the conditions in the scenario will help determine alignment and coherence of core values and principles.

Providing each scenario with a name that captures the changes they reflect is helpful for the communication process. These names can be memorable and can make it easier to understand what the scenario is meant to communicate.

Here are some best practices for creating and using scenarios that reflect your values and principles: 1. Identify your core values and principles: Before diving into scenario creation, take time to explicitly define your most important values and principles. What guides your decisions? What principles are non-negotiable for you? This introspection will form the foundation of your scenarios. 2. Use diverse and credible sources: To create realistic and plausible scenarios, draw upon information from various sources beyond your own perspective. Consider data, trends, reports, expert opinions, and diverse viewpoints to inform your scenario development.

The almighty Capablanca played against an expert chess player from New York. Capablanca lost. The spectators were astonished: how could a world champion have lost to a player far inferior to him? -How many moves can you foresee on the board," a fan asked Capablanca. -At least ten, replied the world champion. -And how many moves can you think of in advance, the winner of this particular encounter was asked. And he replied: -One. -How does a player who can only think of one move in advance beat a player who can think of ten? The winner explained: -I think of only one move, but it is always the best! Short Reflection: Let's prioritise scenarios please!