How do you refine your innovation assumptions?

Innovation is not a linear process, but a series of experiments and iterations based on assumptions. However, not all assumptions are equally valid, relevant, or testable. How do you refine your innovation assumptions to focus on the most critical and uncertain ones that can drive your learning and decision making? Here are some steps you can follow to improve your innovation assumptions.

1 Identify your assumptions

The first step is to identify your assumptions, which are the beliefs or hypotheses you have about your problem, solution, customer, market, or value proposition. You can use tools like the Lean Canvas, the Business Model Canvas, or the Value Proposition Canvas to map out your assumptions in a structured way. Alternatively, you can brainstorm your assumptions using questions like: What do you need to be true for your idea to work? What are the biggest risks or unknowns? What are the common pitfalls or challenges in your domain?

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Jacob Vaidyan

VP, Digital Transformation (Telco & Services) @ SAP | Helping businesses realise their technology potential
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Another way is to identify the inhibiting beliefs by looking at, what I’ve used as, orthodoxies (I.e. generally accepted beliefs and wisdoms) if your your industry or Organization. I’ve found that thinking in terms of orthodoxies (definitely need a bit of education and examples of orthodoxies to kickstart the process) opens people’s mind to higher set of beliefs which are inhibiting the thinking. Higher the level or more basic the assumptions which are stopping your business from innovating, greater the impact of the ideas which come out later in the process.

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2 Categorize your assumptions

The next step is to categorize your assumptions according to their importance and uncertainty. Importance means how much impact your assumption has on your value proposition and business model. Uncertainty means how much evidence or data you have to support or invalidate your assumption. You can use a matrix or a table to plot your assumptions along these two dimensions. For example, you can use the Assumption Mapping tool by David J. Bland, which divides the matrix into four quadrants: Facts, Leap of Faith, Risky, and Trivial.

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Umbereen S. Nehal, MD, MPH, MBA
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Uncertainty will decrease the more clearly you can define your customer and customer segment. What is a “fact” and true about one customer segment may not be true for another segment. (Example: use of social media or types of social media will vary by age.) It is important to clearly define your customer and segment then lay out the assumptions.

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3 Prioritize your assumptions

The third step is to prioritize your assumptions based on their category and your resources. You want to focus on the assumptions that are both important and uncertain, as these are the ones that can make or break your innovation. These are also called your leap of faith assumptions, as they require the most validation and experimentation. You can use a prioritization framework like the ICE (Impact, Confidence, Ease) or the RICE (Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort) to score and rank your assumptions. Alternatively, you can use your intuition and judgment to select the most critical and urgent assumptions.

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4 Test your assumptions

The fourth step is to test your assumptions using experiments and data. You want to design experiments that can provide you with the most learning and feedback in the shortest time and cost. You can use tools like the Experiment Canvas, the Test Card, or the Lean Experiment Template to plan and execute your experiments. You can also use methods like interviews, surveys, prototypes, landing pages, or MVPs (Minimum Viable Products) to test your assumptions with real or potential customers.

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Blake Emery

Research Methods; Product Design; Strategy. "Research Driven Strategy"
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For me, the highest standard is to conduct a true experiment wherever possible. This means identifying your independent and dependent variables and controlling the experimental environment. Also remember you are actually testing the null hypothesis that no relationship exists between your variables. This way we are keeping thru to the scientific attitude.

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Umbereen S. Nehal, MD, MPH, MBA
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In early stages it is best to test one assumption at a time then use a mix of methods and data to test and either validate or reject. Sometimes you can get a “signal” via primary market interviews without being able to get privileged data on budgets, for example. That is when to seek the detailed information from publisher research or market analysis reports.

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Ollie Phillips

Inspiring teams to exceed their goals, manage their emotions, adapt to change & move forward with shared values.
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Also as part of gathering data, really stress test those assumptions. How does everyone view them and perform under heightened pressure, time, financial etc. Do they still stand under pressure? Do they change under pressure?

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5 Learn from your assumptions

The final step is to learn from your assumptions by analyzing and interpreting your experiment results. You want to compare your expected outcomes with your actual outcomes and see if your assumptions are validated, invalidated, or need more testing. You can use tools like the Learning Card, the Validation Board, or the Lean Analytics Cycle to document and communicate your learnings. You can also use metrics like the Pirate Metrics (AARRR) or the Innovation Accounting to measure and track your progress and performance.

Refining your innovation assumptions is an essential skill for any innovator who wants to create value and reduce waste. By following these steps, you can improve your innovation assumptions and increase your chances of success.

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Blake Emery

Research Methods; Product Design; Strategy. "Research Driven Strategy"
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I like to ask, "Where are we NOW?" What have we learned? What experiment do we want to try next? another good thing to do is to ask what qualitative research methods might add our knowledge base or help refine our understanding of the experimental results?

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How do you refine your innovation assumptions?

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3

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1 Identify your assumptions

2 Categorize your assumptions

3 Prioritize your assumptions

4 Test your assumptions

5 Learn from your assumptions

6 Here’s what else to consider

Strategy

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How do you refine your innovation assumptions?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Identify your assumptions

2 Categorize your assumptions

3 Prioritize your assumptions

4 Test your assumptions

5 Learn from your assumptions

6 Here’s what else to consider

Strategy

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