What is the best way to forecast demand for new technologies?

Forecasting demand for new technologies is a challenging but essential task for innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors. How can you estimate the potential market size, adoption rate, and customer preferences for a product or service that does not exist yet? In this article, you will learn about some of the best methods and tools to forecast demand for new technologies, and how to apply them in different scenarios.

1 Analogies and scenarios

One of the simplest and most common ways to forecast demand for new technologies is to use analogies and scenarios. Analogies are based on comparing the new technology with a similar or substitute product or service that already exists or existed in the past. For example, you can use the diffusion curve of smartphones to project the adoption of smartwatches. Scenarios are based on creating plausible and consistent stories about how the new technology will be used, by whom, and under what conditions. For example, you can imagine how self-driving cars will affect the transportation, insurance, and tourism industries in different regions and time frames.

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Iago Melo

Global Business Development Leader | Senior Executive Music Industry & Entertainment | Partnerships & Alliances | ERP, SaaS & Cloud Solutions | Innovation & Growth Leader
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Na minha experiência na indústria da música mantenho um diálogo constante com clientes, artistas e outros stakeholders do setor para entender suas necessidades e expectativas em relação a novas tecnologias. Ao testar protótipos e soluções mínimas viáveis (MVPs) com um grupo seleto de usuários, posso obter feedback valioso sobre o potencial de adoção e sucesso de novas tecnologias antes de lançá-las no mercado em larga escala.

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Paulo Batuta

Executive operating in Digital Transformation, specialized in technological platforms, Solution Architecture, and Systems on Digital Platforms in the Banking, Cards, and Healthcare industries.
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A melhor maneira de prever a demanda por novas tecnologias é observar o mercado, entender o que os clientes precisam e acompanhar as tendências. Isso envolve estudar dados de mercado, analisar padrões de consumo e estar atento a inovações tecnológicas emergentes. Também é importante ouvir os clientes e colaborar com equipes de desenvolvimento para criar produtos que atendam às necessidades futuras.

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2 Surveys and experiments

Another way to forecast demand for new technologies is to use surveys and experiments. Surveys are based on asking potential customers or experts about their preferences, expectations, and willingness to pay for the new technology. For example, you can use online platforms, focus groups, or interviews to collect feedback and data. Experiments are based on testing the new technology or a prototype with a sample of customers or users in a controlled or natural setting. For example, you can use beta testing, pilot testing, or A/B testing to measure the usage, satisfaction, and retention of the new technology.

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Patxi Collado Adam

LinkedIn Top Voice | Content creator | Berguedà
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A good way to forecast the demand for new technologies is to use surveys, analyze the market and see what other technology creators are doing. Asking questions is always a good way to get answers.

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Paulo Batuta

Executive operating in Digital Transformation, specialized in technological platforms, Solution Architecture, and Systems on Digital Platforms in the Banking, Cards, and Healthcare industries.
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É fundamental realizar pesquisas de mercado, coletar dados relevantes e conduzir experimentos controlados para validar hipóteses e previsões. Isso pode incluir a realização de pesquisas de opinião, análise de dados de vendas e feedback dos clientes, bem como a execução de testes de conceito e protótipos para avaliar a aceitação do mercado e a viabilidade das novas tecnologias. Mescle insights qualitativos e quantitativos obtidos por meio dessas abordagens. Assim será possível obter uma compreensão mais abrangente das demandas do mercado e tomar decisões mais informadas sobre o desenvolvimento e lançamento de novas tecnologias.

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3 Models and simulations

A third way to forecast demand for new technologies is to use models and simulations. Models are based on applying mathematical or statistical formulas or algorithms to estimate the demand for the new technology based on various factors and assumptions. For example, you can use regression, forecasting, or machine learning models to analyze historical or current data and generate predictions. Simulations are based on creating virtual or artificial environments or systems that mimic the behavior and interactions of customers or users with the new technology. For example, you can use agent-based modeling, system dynamics, or gaming simulations to explore different scenarios and outcomes.

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Michael ⍟ Cussney 📣

🥇 Top Voice in IT Consulting & System Architecture | Thought Leader | Industry Innovator 🎖️ Transforming Transportation with Cutting-Edge Architecture & Disruptive Technologies
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Models and simulations are crucial for forecasting demand in technological innovation. Models utilize mathematical or statistical formulas, such as regression or machine learning, to estimate demand based on historical or current data. Simulations create virtual environments to mimic real-world interactions, using methodologies like agent-based modeling or gaming simulations. Together, these tools provide insights into future demand dynamics, aiding decision-making and risk mitigation in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.

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4 Delphi and crowdsourcing

A fourth way to forecast demand for new technologies is to use Delphi and crowdsourcing. Delphi is based on soliciting and aggregating the opinions of a panel of experts or stakeholders who have relevant knowledge or experience with the new technology or its domain. For example, you can use online platforms, surveys, or workshops to conduct multiple rounds of questions and feedback until a consensus or a range of estimates is reached. Crowdsourcing is based on tapping into the collective wisdom or intelligence of a large and diverse group of people who can provide insights, ideas, or solutions for the new technology. For example, you can use online platforms, contests, or challenges to collect and evaluate contributions from the crowd.

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Michael ⍟ Cussney 📣

🥇 Top Voice in IT Consulting & System Architecture | Thought Leader | Industry Innovator 🎖️ Transforming Transportation with Cutting-Edge Architecture & Disruptive Technologies
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Delphi and crowdsourcing are effective methods for forecasting demand in new technologies. Delphi involves gathering opinions from a panel of experts or stakeholders through online platforms, surveys, or workshops to reach a consensus or range of estimates. Crowdsourcing taps into the collective intelligence of a diverse group through online platforms, contests, or challenges to gather insights and solutions. These approaches harness expertise and diverse perspectives to inform decision-making and generate innovative ideas for new technologies.

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5 Hybrid and adaptive

A fifth and final way to forecast demand for new technologies is to use hybrid and adaptive methods. Hybrid methods are based on combining two or more of the previous methods to leverage their strengths and overcome their limitations. For example, you can use analogies and surveys to validate your assumptions, models and experiments to refine your estimates, and Delphi and crowdsourcing to update your forecasts. Adaptive methods are based on adjusting your forecasts as new information, feedback, or data becomes available or as the market conditions, customer behavior, or technology development change. For example, you can use agile, lean, or iterative approaches to monitor and improve your forecasts.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Ajay Behuria

CTO | Distinguished Technologist | Director of Technology | Chief Architect | Retail and Healthcare Executive | Advanced Researcher & Disruptive Innovation Leader | Prolific Inventor & Intrapreneur | Startup Mentor
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Forecasting demand for new technologies is an exhilarating mix of art and science! Remember, it's not about pinpoint accuracy, but narrowing the range of possibilities for better bets. Start by truly understanding the technology's potential and the problem it solves. Then, blend traditional forecasting (market analysis, trend spotting) with the power of generative AI. Use LLMs to analyze online discussions for early sentiment and potential adopters. I've learned that new techs often have a hype cycle – factor this in to avoid overestimating early demand. Embrace the unknown – forecasting for disruptive tech has inherent uncertainty. Stay adaptable and find excitement in the journey of discovery!

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Gerlan Cardoso

Teacher | Google Trainer | Google Developer Leader | Speaker | TechEduc
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Coletar e analisar dados históricos sobre a adoção de tecnologias semelhantes. Identificar padrões e tendências que podem indicar como a nova tecnologia pode ser recebida.

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Bahareh Banisadr

Enterprise Account Executive @ Object Edge Inc. | MBA, Babson
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Forecasting demand for new technologies entails analyzing market research, historical data, technological trends, and competitive landscapes. Engaging with early adopters, consulting experts, and employing statistical and advanced analytical techniques like machine learning can improve accuracy. Adopting an ITERATIVE approach is crucial, recognizing uncertainties, and continuously refining forecasts based on new data and market developments. For instance, demand forecasts for AI today differ significantly from those made three years ago, considering the rapid evolution of technology. Additionally, it's essential to consider Moore's Law of growth in technology as we navigate through each new technological chasm.

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Paulo Batuta

Executive operating in Digital Transformation, specialized in technological platforms, Solution Architecture, and Systems on Digital Platforms in the Banking, Cards, and Healthcare industries.
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Tendências do Mercado: Observar as tendências do mercado e as mudanças de comportamento dos consumidores pode fornecer insights valiosos sobre futuras demandas. Análise da Concorrência: Monitorar as estratégias e lançamentos de produtos da concorrência pode ajudar a identificar lacunas no mercado e oportunidades para inovação. Mudanças Regulatórias: Ficar atualizado sobre as mudanças regulatórias pode ajudar a prever como novas regulamentações podem impactar a demanda por certas tecnologias. Feedback dos Clientes: Coletar e analisar o feedback dos clientes em tempo real pode fornecer informações valiosas sobre suas necessidades e preferências. Colaboração Interna: Trabalhar em estreita colaboração com equipes internas.

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What is the best way to forecast demand for new technologies?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Analogies and scenarios

2 Surveys and experiments

3 Models and simulations

4 Delphi and crowdsourcing

5 Hybrid and adaptive

6 Here’s what else to consider

Technological Innovation

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What is the best way to forecast demand for new technologies?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Analogies and scenarios

2 Surveys and experiments

3 Models and simulations

4 Delphi and crowdsourcing

5 Hybrid and adaptive

6 Here’s what else to consider

Technological Innovation

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