What is the future of SSL certificates?

1 The rise of automation

One of the key drivers of the future of SSL certificates is the need for automation. Managing and renewing SSL certificates manually can be time-consuming, error-prone, and costly, especially for large and complex websites that use multiple domains and subdomains. Automation can simplify and streamline the process of issuing, installing, and updating SSL certificates, reducing the risk of human errors, expired certificates, and security breaches. Automation can also enable faster and more frequent certificate renewals, improving the security and performance of websites. One example of automation in action is Let's Encrypt, a free, open, and automated certificate authority that provides SSL certificates for over 200 million websites.

2 The shift to short-lived certificates

Another trend that is influencing the future of SSL certificates is the shift to short-lived certificates. Short-lived certificates are SSL certificates that have a very short validity period, typically between a few hours and a few days. Short-lived certificates offer several advantages over long-lived certificates, which usually last for a year or more. Short-lived certificates can reduce the impact of certificate compromise, revocation, and misissuance, as attackers have less time to exploit them. Short-lived certificates can also eliminate the need for certificate revocation lists (CRLs) and online certificate status protocol (OCSP), which are mechanisms for checking the validity of certificates that can introduce latency and complexity. Short-lived certificates can be more easily and securely deployed with automation, as they require less manual intervention and verification.

3 The challenge of quantum computing

One of the potential threats to the future of SSL certificates is the emergence of quantum computing. Quantum computing is a new paradigm of computing that uses quantum physics to perform calculations that are impossible or impractical for classical computers. Quantum computing could pose a serious risk to the security and integrity of SSL certificates, as it could break the cryptographic algorithms that underpin them. For example, quantum computers could use Shor's algorithm to factor large numbers and crack the RSA algorithm, which is widely used for SSL certificate encryption and authentication. Quantum computers could also use Grover's algorithm to search large databases and break the hash functions that are used for SSL certificate verification and integrity.

4 The adoption of quantum-resistant algorithms

To counter the threat of quantum computing, the future of SSL certificates will likely involve the adoption of quantum-resistant algorithms. Quantum-resistant algorithms are cryptographic algorithms that are designed to resist attacks from quantum computers, either by using different mathematical problems or by increasing the complexity and size of the keys. Quantum-resistant algorithms are still under development and standardization, but some of them have already been implemented and tested by some certificate authorities and web browsers. For example, Google has experimented with using the New Hope algorithm, which is based on the lattice problem, for SSL certificate encryption. Microsoft has also tested the use of the Picnic algorithm, which is based on the zero-knowledge proof problem, for SSL certificate authentication.

5 The evolution of trust models

The final aspect of the future of SSL certificates that we will discuss is the evolution of trust models. Trust models are the frameworks and mechanisms that determine how SSL certificates are issued, verified, and trusted by web browsers and users. The current trust model for SSL certificates is based on a hierarchical and centralized system, where a few trusted certificate authorities (CAs) have the authority to issue and validate SSL certificates for websites. However, this trust model has some limitations and drawbacks, such as the possibility of CA compromise, misissuance, or collusion, as well as the lack of transparency and accountability. The future of SSL certificates may see the emergence of alternative or complementary trust models, such as the web of trust, the blockchain, or the decentralized identifiers, that aim to improve the security, reliability, and diversity of SSL certificate issuance and verification.