How can you use scenario planning for public policy analysis?

Scenario planning is a method of exploring and preparing for possible future outcomes by creating and comparing different stories or narratives about how the world might evolve. It can help you to identify and assess the implications, risks, and opportunities of various policy options, as well as to communicate and engage with stakeholders and decision-makers. In this article, you will learn how to use scenario planning for public policy analysis in four steps: defining the scope and purpose, developing the scenarios, analyzing the scenarios, and using the scenarios.

1 Define the scope and purpose

The first step is to clarify the scope and purpose of your scenario planning exercise. You need to define the policy issue or question that you want to address, the time horizon that you want to explore, the geographic and thematic boundaries that you want to consider, and the objectives and criteria that you want to use to evaluate the policy options. You also need to decide who will be involved in the scenario planning process, such as experts, stakeholders, or policy-makers, and how they will contribute and participate.

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Ather Mobeen

C-Suite | CFO | Leadership | Harvard | Banking | FinTech | Financial services | M&A | Ex KPMG | Planning | Strategic Managment | Award-Wining CFO | Financial Leader | Building High-Performance Teams | Refinancing |
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It enables policymakers to anticipate and prepare for various future possibilities. By creating diverse, plausible scenarios, it allows for the examination of potential outcomes of different policy decisions in varying conditions. This encourages the consideration of long-term impacts and the identification of resilient strategies that can withstand a range of future uncertainties. Scenario planning aids in identifying key factors that influence policy effectiveness, such as demographic changes, economic shifts, or technological advancements. It fosters stakeholder engagement, as diverse perspectives can contribute to comprehensive scenarios. Ultimately, this supports more informed, adaptable, and forward-thinking policy-making.

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2 Develop the scenarios

The second step is to develop the scenarios that will represent different plausible and relevant futures for your policy issue or question. You need to identify and analyze the key drivers and uncertainties that will shape the future, such as social, economic, environmental, political, or technological factors. You can use various methods and tools to generate and organize the drivers and uncertainties, such as brainstorming, SWOT analysis, PESTEL analysis, or STEEP analysis. You then need to select and combine the drivers and uncertainties that will create the most contrast and diversity among the scenarios, and craft coherent and consistent narratives that describe how each scenario will unfold and affect your policy issue or question.

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3 Analyze the scenarios

The third step is to analyze the scenarios and compare their implications, risks, and opportunities for your policy options. You need to identify and assess the main challenges and opportunities that each scenario poses for your policy issue or question, and how they might affect the feasibility, effectiveness, efficiency, equity, and sustainability of your policy options. You can use various methods and tools to analyze and compare the scenarios, such as impact analysis, risk analysis, cost-benefit analysis, multicriteria analysis, or sensitivity analysis. You then need to synthesize and summarize the main findings and insights from your scenario analysis, and highlight the key trade-offs, uncertainties, and assumptions that underpin your policy options.

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Carlos Colloca, CHA, FBE

Hotel Resort F&B & Convention Operations
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I also think 5 simple steps could help frame the task of scenario analysis 1. Define the Issue. First, decide what you want to achieve, or define the decision that you need to make. ... 2. Gather Data. ... 3. Separate Certainties From Uncertainties. ... 4. Develop Scenarios. ... 5. Use the Scenarios in Your Planning There are more options focused on different scenarios and frame of work

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4 Use the scenarios

The fourth step is to use the scenarios to inform and improve your policy-making process. You need to communicate and share your scenarios and scenario analysis with your target audience, such as stakeholders, decision-makers, or the public, and elicit their feedback and input. You can use various methods and tools to communicate and share your scenarios and scenario analysis, such as reports, presentations, workshops, games, or simulations. You then need to use the feedback and input to refine and revise your policy options, and to develop and implement strategies and actions that will make your policy options more robust, adaptable, and resilient to different future scenarios.

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Owen M.

Interventional Brain Medicine | NIH Funded Research | Best Selling Newsletter Author
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One tool that is underutilized is the AMBIT framework from the Anna Freud center in the UK: each scenario is run from different perspectives-what is the problem , who is responsible for solving that problem, and what is the solution to that problem from different points of video. In the case of dinner, from my perspective it's about eating protein, but my son might think it's about ice cream! The solutions to where to do eat might be wildly different I we don't assess the different perspectives! This is called a disintegration grid.

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5 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How can you use scenario planning for public policy analysis?

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1 Define the scope and purpose

2 Develop the scenarios

3 Analyze the scenarios

4 Use the scenarios

5 Here’s what else to consider

Public Administration

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