How do you adjust for variable demand?

You can cushion variability in demand by forecasting a range. For example, if you know your forecast error rate is ±9%, and your demands arrives within that range 90% of the time, you can plan budgets to cover up to the top end (forecasts +9%), while enabling increased shrinkage and offline activities of staff to keep utilization healthy at the bottom end (-9%). You'll still plan for the middle of that range, but you'll then have budgeted flexibility to cover variability. Anything outside that range (10% of the time) is exceptional, and over time, your Forecasting Team should aim to reduce that error rate range, or increase the confidence interval (the frequency that historical demand arrives within range).

One thing to note here is that capacity must be ahead of demand at all times & to effective carry out the task of capacity planning, these 3 things are key: (1) Trend Analysis is very important, you must be able to analyse historical data with a view to finding trends. Why do you have high demand during the weekend & low during the week? Are there external factors that impact how your service or product is consumed. (2) Forecasting is the next important activity, you need to take the trends you've seen & use it to predict future patterns of occurrence. (3) Hybrid upgrade contracts is what ties everything together, to avoid having excess capacity you can agree on JIT delivery or a flexible (fixed + %variable) agreement with your provider.

Mastering Demand Patterns: A Customer-Centric Approach! In today's dynamic business landscape, understanding demand patterns has become a pivotal factor for success. To effectively predict and respond to fluctuating demands, it is essential to adopt a customer-centric approach that delves deeper into your customer's customer business model. This approach not only enhances the accuracy of demand predictions but also strengthens your company's position in the market by demonstrating value to your customers.

What’s a demand - its not sales / it’s not creating business commercials or a green dashboard for executives or even the shooting of stock price - it’s a clear statement of what will make the job easy - exploring positive aspects vs less mitigation plan - alternative to what we have now - learn the pattern of demand , understand the gaps , close loop the gaps and invent new modifications to excel

Aligning Your Company's Strategies! 1. Tailored Solutions: Customize products and services to meet your customer's customer needs, aligning offerings with preferences and pain points. 2. Value Chain Integration: Collaborate closely to seamlessly integrate your products or services into your customer's value chain, optimizing processes, and offering value-added services. 3. Data Sharing and Collaboration: Foster open communication for shared insights. Collaborate on forecasting, inventory management, and demand planning to understand market dynamics. 4. Feedback Loop: Continuously gather insights from customers and their customers to refine strategies and offerings.

To excel in mastering demand patterns, prioritize customer-centricity as a core business principle. Achieve this by: 1.Customer Relationship Management: Build enduring, robust relationships. Understand their pain points, ambitions, and objectives intimately. 2. Personalization: Leverage data analytics and AI tools for tailored interactions. Adapt to unique preferences and demands. 3. Educational Initiatives: Empower with knowledge, resources, and training. Enhance their ability to serve customers, solidifying your role as a valuable partner. 4. Proactive Support: Anticipate challenges in their operations. Offer proactive solutions, fostering trust and lasting loyalty.

Effective demand planning hinges on integrating safety buffers and contingency plans to mitigate risks and uncertainties. Safety Buffers: 1.Inventory Buffer: Maintain safety stock for sudden demand spikes or supply chain disruptions. 2. Capacity Buffer: Ensure excess production or service capacity to handle unexpected order surges. 3.Financial Buffer: Retain reserves for economic downturns or unforeseen expenses. Contingency Plans: Scenario Planning: Develop diverse demand scenarios (best-case, worst-case, most likely). Diversified Supplier Network: Cultivate multiple supplier relationships to reduce reliance on one source and mitigate supply chain risks. Communication Strategy and Technology Resilience both are key/

Tracking performance KPIs for these points can help your organization ensure that it is effectively delivering tailored solutions, integrating into the value chain, fostering collaboration, and maintaining a feedback loop. 1. Customer Satisfaction (CSAT): Measure the satisfaction levels of your customers' customers with your tailored solutions through surveys or feedback forms. 2. Conversion Rate: Monitor the conversion rate of leads or prospects into customers for your tailored solutions. 3. Repeat Business: Measure how often customers come back for additional tailored solutions, indicating their satisfaction and loyalty. 4. Process Efficiency and Cost Savings: 10% Y-o-Y! Much achieve KPI for me.