How do you monitor and update your climate change scenarios as new information and trends emerge?

1 Why monitor and update scenarios?

Scenario planning is not a one-time exercise, but a continuous process of learning and adaptation. As the external environment changes, so do the assumptions, drivers, and uncertainties that underpin your scenarios. Monitoring and updating your scenarios allows you to keep them relevant, realistic, and useful for decision making. It also helps you identify new opportunities and risks, and adjust your strategies accordingly.

3 How to update scenarios?

Updating your scenarios involves revising and refining your scenario narratives and implications based on the new information and insights you have gathered from monitoring. You can use different methods, such as workshops, interviews, simulations, and models, to update your scenarios. You can also use criteria, such as consistency, plausibility, relevance, and diversity, to evaluate and improve your scenarios. For example, you can update your scenarios to reflect the latest scientific findings, the emerging technologies, or the changing customer preferences related to climate change.

4 How often to monitor and update scenarios?

There is no fixed rule on how often you should monitor and update your scenarios, as it depends on your purpose, scope, and resources. However, some factors that can influence your frequency are the pace and magnitude of change, the availability and quality of data and information, the feedback and engagement of stakeholders, and the alignment and integration of scenarios with your strategy and operations. For example, you may want to monitor and update your scenarios more frequently if you are dealing with a fast-changing and high-impact issue like climate change.

6 How to use scenarios for decision making?

Using your scenarios for decision making is the ultimate goal of scenario planning, as it can help you enhance your strategic thinking, foresight, and agility. You can use your scenarios to test and refine your assumptions, goals, and options, and to identify and evaluate the implications, trade-offs, and uncertainties of your decisions. You can also use your scenarios to create and compare alternative strategies, and to monitor and adjust your actions as the situation evolves. For example, you can use your scenarios to advise your clients, design your services, and manage your risks related to climate change.