What is the best way to plan for unexpected disruptions in global logistics and trade?

Unforeseen risks are dealt with by following up on the political and climatic conditions surrounding the place of shipping and delivery, taking into account the means of shipping, and always taking precautionary measures and an alternative plan. For example, in the case of sea shipping, the climate and political conditions of the shipping country and the country of arrival are studied, taking into account alternative transit ports and arrival times. Departure and the extent to which the goods can last for possible periods of time affect the quality of the product, especially in fresh goods

Relying on a single supplier or a single source of critical components can leave your business vulnerable. Diversify your suppliers and, if possible, source from different regions to spread risk. Invest in technology and systems that provide real-time visibility into your supply chain. This enables you to track shipments, monitor inventory levels, and respond quickly to disruptions.

From an Owner's perspective, you need to be pro-active in terms of your fleet and fleet renewal programs. Most importantly, you need to have a fleet of ships that stand-out not to your management fees but when the bad market will hit (again) because that's what will make the difference between being employed and idle/lay-up.

Risk assessment should be performed at desired frequency (Ex: Qtrly) across various dimensions like - Geopolitical - Country level regulations - Sourcing / Supplier dependencies - Technological / IT related - Natural disasters related Each and every risk element should be classified based on likelihood and severity in economic impact. Organization should prepare for risk mitigation actions for each risk item. For example: Organizations prepare for alternative source / manufacturing locations to address geo-political risks.

Looking the current happenings, Logisticians and Transporters must shift greatly from the use of fuel run machines. It's high time we consider use of propane and electric vehicles, these should be heavy duty trucks. Additionally, it's nature friendly, free from noise, and carbon emissions. This is the future of heavy duty trucks

An example of this is the CORE initiative that was undertaken by a multinational collaboration between supply chain industry partners and researchers as part of a European Union supported project. In CORE, new multimodal logistics optimisation algorithms were developed which allow global supply chain operators and managers to develop sophisticated resilience strategies and contingency plans for their logistics operations. The same toolsets can be used to assess the resilience of the logistics chain to disruptive events e.g. through simulation of scenarios.

Maintaining safety stock at distribution center/warehouses would be the one of the approch to avoid sales loss in logistics disruption.

I lean pretty for an optimal inventory level. Review the safety inventory level, taking account of delivery time. Change de transport mode to meet customer expectations.

A resilient supply chain can recover from the negative impacts of unknown disruptions and adapt to uncertain future events[2]. National Academy of Science (NAS) [2] proposes Plan, Absorb, Recover, and adapt as a methodology for addressing resilience. As a basic measure for Supply chain resilience, David & Edith Simchi-Levi propose two steps as below: - Time to recover (TTR), the time it would take for a node in the supply chain to be restored to full functionality after a disruption. - Time to survive (TTS), the maximum duration that the supply chain can match supply with demand after a facility disruption

Diversify and Redundant Systems Relying on a single supplier or route is a recipe for disaster. The strategic move is to diversify, ensuring that no single point of failure exists. This can be achieved through: Multiple suppliers from different regions. Different transportation routes and modalities. Stockpiling essential components. Counter-Argument: Critics may highlight the increased costs associated with this strategy. Yet, this is a classic case of "pay now or pay more later." Temporary elevated costs pale in comparison to the potential loss of business and damaged reputation in the event of a disruption.

Establish clear channels and protocols to share information with employees, suppliers, customers, regulators, and partners. Frequent updates and expectations help align everyone involved.

Flexible and Adaptive Operational Models A rigid system is more prone to break under pressure. Organizations should consider: Flexible contracts that allow for volume changes. Decentralized decision-making, enabling quick responses. Collaborative partnerships with logistics providers. Counter-Argument: Some believe that too much flexibility can lead to inefficiencies. But in an era of uncertainties, adaptability can be the lifeline that ensures continuity.

I believe it’s important to have back up plans not only within the company but also with their clients to make sure that you all know what to expect and not have that lack of communication.

Cross-Functional Collaboration: Facilitate cross-functional collaboration within your organization to assess the impact of the disruption on other departments, such as finance, sales, and customer service. This will enable a holistic understanding of the situation and help develop comprehensive action plans.

Risk Assessment and Scenario Planning: Begin by identifying potential risks and disruptions that could impact your supply chain and trade operations. These may include natural disasters, geopolitical events, trade policy changes, and economic downturns. Develop various scenarios to understand how these disruptions could affect your business. Consider their likelihood and potential impact on different aspects of your operations. Diversify Suppliers and Markets: Avoid over-reliance on a single supplier or market. Diversify your sources of supply and customer base to reduce vulnerability to disruptions in one region or sector.

Continuous Learning and Training Disruptions can't always be prevented, but the response can be controlled. Regular training programs and simulation exercises can ensure that when a crisis hits, every individual knows their role and acts efficiently. Counter-Argument: Time and resources spent on training may seem excessive to some. But ask any organization hit by a crisis unprepared, and they'll tell you they wish they'd been better trained.

It is important to keep everyone updated. See what works, what doesn’t work and can be incorporated to make evening work effectively and efficiently

To be on the target for all your customers, suppliers, business partners, you have to develop the communication network to be on time , by develop your team work forces and be in your attention timing of your partners if your working in global organization , implement 24/7 team available for that ...

Be open to everyone’s ideas as to how to come up with multiple solutions and incorporate them. Seeing what’s new that is appealing to clients to expand the partnerships.

The resilient supply chain should be agile and evolving by sharing information, and resources and building flexible and agile partnerships with stakeholders in the supply chain; Also Supply Chain network design requires approaches that are sustainable and inclusive cognisant of the demands of customers and the contribution of market and other forces. Therefore, flexibility is essential to ensure readiness to adapt and evolve to meet the operational reality. For example, the semiconductor chip shortage has impacted many related industries and manufacturing businesses that did not anticipate and adjust early in response to this shortage.

 Logistics modelling enables the rapid evaluation of a whole range of scenarios in order to identify resource levels, capital costs and operating costs. Alternative scenarios can include changes in one or all of the following: Sales volumes Customer locations and type Customer order size and minimum order quantity Product range Order lead time Stockholding Supplier minimum order quantities Supplier delivery lead times Introduction of automation Alternative routes to market Packaging and unitisation Operating cost movements Road congestion Alternative transport model . 

Consumer electronic companies' response to geo-political tension between China-Taiwan is an example. Taiwan plays a key role in semiconductor value chain. TSMC has started Fab manufacturing investments in USA to reduce risks due to geo-political tensions. Similarly, many organizations has started re-shoring or near shoring as a strategy to address the risk.

The best thing is to maintain communication and be vigilant to any changes. And be more up to date by focusing on the daily news.

Many excellent supply chains structure their logistics operations influenced by how near and far the source or destination of inputs and outputs respectively have to move. With the added complexity of the associated supply chain networks, it becomes essential to constantly monitor the entire supply chain to deliver consistently as any disruption up or down the chain is bound to have a ripple effect on other elements in the supply chain.

In East Africa the location of few countries international organization logistics is found in Etebee, Uganda and that is working. DRC, Sudan, Central Africa Republic, South Sudan and teams set that location as Logistics Base. While working with CARITAS, the logistics warehouse was in different locations and other materials with always with supplier to be shipped base on request. This idea is working well as such there being no incident when we completely out of logistics.