What are the best ways to reduce supply chain risks from natural disasters?

A key element is to always remember that a risk is neither a loss nor an incident, i.e. its scope is much broader, you can be exposed to some risks and never experience an incident, so you need to go beyond historical data, particularly with regard to natural disasters, as we experience a large number of unexpected terrible events lately. I would always recommend running scenarios (these could be fed by expert opinions or historical data), during which I would expect practitioners to be open to what they consider unlikely (based on their experiences), as this would lead to the implementation of new sets of controls and appropriate mitigants.

Work closely with forecasting departments and plan shipments accordingly. Natural disasters increase the lead time. Predict the natural disasters and plan a proper buffer stock for the period. Payments shall be processed through forward contracts

1. Create a risk management plan, 2. Diversify suppliers, 3. Improve supplier communication and relationships, 4. Use technology and automation, 5. Increase supply chain visibility, 6. Invest in backup inventory, 7. Use predictive supply chain analytics, 8. Implement agile supply chain management, 9. Monitor supplier performance.

A holistic supply-network perspective coupled with analysis and simulation of structural properties of the network allows us to purposefully increase robustness against failures while balancing other issues such as cost and sustainability.

Agent based modelling can be used as a simulator to estimate risks while a natural disaster. Mesa is a interesting framework to work out Agent based models

Desenhar e implementar estratégias de mitigação para reduzir os riscos da cadeia de suprimentos de desastres naturais é crucial. Isso envolve aumentar a robustez, flexibilidade e agilidade da cadeia. Estratégias comuns incluem diversificar fontes e locais de suprimento e transporte, construir redundância em estoque e capacidade, estabelecer planos de contingência e investir em medidas preventivas. Essas estratégias reduzem a dependência de pontos únicos de falha, aumentando as opções de recuperação e ajudando a lidar com flutuações na demanda e oferta. A comunicação e coordenação entre parceiros e partes interessadas são essenciais para uma resposta eficaz a emergências.

In my experience, we must enhance our models and solutions (e.g., algorithms, policies) with collaboration and coordination strategies, such that when these solutions become operational they are robust and resilient to the dynamism of the disaster environment.

It is important to determinate the risks in the environment of road in all supply chain, and create actions considerate the risk impact in the goals, every risk should have and action that minimize them; of the environment and danger of products, transport, transporter, and goals. This will require a correct strategy of risk determination, since risk of health and security of personal, of the products and costumer satisfaction.

Yes, it is important to monitor and evaluate the performance of the supply chain to react to unexpected changes in the environment or the outcomes of the logistics tasks. However, we also need to consider the human factor in the process in the case of disaster management. The problem is developing key performance indicators related to the human factor (e.g., victims) to evaluate the performance of the supply chain.

Monitorar e avaliar o desempenho na cadeia de suprimentos é essencial para garantir a eficácia das estratégias de mitigação de riscos de desastres naturais. Isso envolve o uso de métricas de desempenho específicas, como tempo de entrega, níveis de estoque e resiliência operacional. Além disso, é importante utilizar tecnologias de monitoramento em tempo real para detectar sinais precoces de problemas e permitir uma resposta rápida. A análise regular dos dados coletados permite identificar áreas de melhoria e ajustar as estratégias conforme necessário, garantindo assim a continuidade das operações e a proteção da cadeia de suprimentos contra os impactos dos desastres naturais.

Situational awareness is key in handling supply chain disruptions. Identifying risks, assessing costs, and implementing mitigation strategies are crucial. COVID showed the importance of being ready for unforeseen challenges like natural disasters. When emergencies such as hurricanes and earthquakes happen, connectivity can be broken, and we need to rely on offline information to assess needs and distribute necessities. Preparing for those catastrophes and building an upto date offline data to manage this live saving essentials is critical. To address the multi-dimensional supply chain risks, Collaboration across teams is essential for effective risk management. Stay proactive to tackle supply chain challenges.

I was once told, over a pint in a London pub, by a very experienced engineer and strategy manager at the end of his career, that "modelling is an exercise in stakeholder management". I've carried that saying with me since, and realised that it is so true when dealing with fields where there is both complexity in the modelling and complexity in the organisational structure of decision making. Modelling and simulation provides a platform for stakeholders to contribute their views, their data and their assumptions. If the model is transparent, it then becsomes the ultimate decision making tool, as it allows all of these stakeholders with disparite interests to align on a direction or set of possible directions.

Simulation techniques can be a game-changer for any organization who implements it, since it would be an enabler to measure the impact within any process on a risk-free environment, using what if scenarios. On some of my previous projects, we've analyzed things like: - Impact of disruptions: how would disruptions impact on my results? e.g. lack of supply, delays in transportation, changes in the demand, etc. - Reduce risk of investment: measure the impact on performance before implementation-> e.g. adding new production lines, allocating products on different warehouses, automation implementation, new machinery, etc. - Mitigation measures implementation: e.g. understand the long-term impact of investments to reduce risks

Simulation and optimization techniques are important for modeling and solving general supply chain problems. However, in the case of disasters, we need to consider collaboration and coordination efforts to improve the supply chain's performance and mitigate unexpected environmental changes. These factors have to be considered in the design and development of optimization and simulation techniques.

Using decision-making frameworks and models that account for uncertainty in demand, forecast, etc. including but not limited to natural disasters. These frameworks can be optimization, simulation, or some combination of both.

A utilização de dados e tecnologia na cadeia de suprimentos é fundamental para mitigar os riscos dos desastres naturais. A análise em tempo real permite detectar problemas rapidamente, enquanto IoT e inteligência artificial otimizam a logística. Sistemas de alerta garantem uma resposta ágil a emergências, assegurando a continuidade das operações. Integrar essas ferramentas possibilita uma adaptação rápida e eficaz às mudanças, minimizando os impactos dos desastres naturais.

Most often, with natural disasters, the supply chain's logistics for product flow get disrupted. Moreover, there is involvement of government agencies that can secure logistics and supply routes for product flow. It is, therefore, critical in a good mitigation plan to be able to work closely with government agencies during such natural disruptions.

To reduce natural disaster risks in supply chains: assess risks, diversify suppliers/routes, plan for continuity, communicate/collaborate, invest in insurance/financial planning, leverage technology/data analytics, evaluate suppliers, train/educate, comply with regulations, and continuously improve.

Back when I purchased bulk plastic I always qualified two sources from two regions. This accomplished two things; kept prices competitive and when a hurricane takes out the Gulf coast for one vendor, the other vendor with a plant in another region can step in. Note: I found vendors stopped being competitive if they had to compete with two others.

Probabilistic reasoning inclusion in the normal supply chain risk management and natural disasters is a way of adding the humanitarian logistics to the critical optimality inclusion methodology.