What are the most effective ways to gather information in complex problem solving for Decision-Making?

One thing I have found common in most decision failures is the misdiagnosis of the "real problem". Malcolm Forbes said: “It's so much easier to suggest solutions when you don't know too much about the problem.” In complex situations, I tend to allocate more time for root cause analysis. From my experience, general brainstorming sessions can be distracting sometimes. I prefer small focus group sessions to visualize the problem in a master diagram, and then divide it into small units. The problem can be defined, redefined and future challenges can be predicted also. At this stage, only "manageable parts" are selected for "work backward" analysis, allowing diverse options for each part, and if possible supported by data.

Defining the problem is truly the critical first step in any information gathering process. It provides crucial focus that informs each subsequent decision. I typically start by clearly articulating the problem statement itself. This clarifies the scope and frames the context. Next, I find it helpful to brainstorm questions related to the problem from multiple stakeholder perspectives. This helps uncover nuances and reveals gaps in my initial understanding. I may iterate on my problem definition as new constraints and criteria emerge. By taking the time up front to comprehensively define the core problem, I can target my information search to only the most relevant sources.

The objective of problem definition should be to dig-out the root cause of problem. A lot of times managers address the consequences of the root cause but fail to either find out the root cause or if they find it out, they fail to address the root cause. This might happen because of variety of reasons like resource constraints, managerial bias, short-termism or managerial incompetency etc. It's important to consult the relevant internal and external stakeholders when defining problem. Conducting interviews, gathering and organizing facts, focus group discussions, brainstorming sessions could be some techniques which managers can use to understand the problem and isolate root causes from symptoms and consequences.

To make decisions one first needs to understand the problem, and then lay out options/ scenarios. To define the problem the key is uncovering cause and effect relationships - once there is some certainty on what the cause may be, then one can start considering scenarios. This requires critical thinking and knowledge about the industry (and industries that have undergone a similar change in the past), it requires taking a broad perspective, considering context and stakeholders... This is strategy at its core. Once there is a good understanding on the cause, then we can lay out options, paths, and decide on which data would help take one path or another.

Selecting appropriate sources is crucial for gathering robust information. My approach is to first brainstorm all potential sources relevant to the problem. I then vet each for reliability, credibility and accessibility. For published sources like books or reports, I check that authors have pertinent expertise and the publisher follows quality standards. For online sources, I ensure they are associated with reputable organizations and regularly updated. If interviewing experts, I look for those with deep experience solving related problems. Multiple high-quality sources allow cross-validation. I'm careful to gather input representing diverse perspectives to avoid bias.

In today's time when the pace of change is highly unpredictable, managers need to realise that the use of multiple sources of information is very important. Whatever sources of information are available to managers, it's important that managers use the one which satisfy following criteria. 1. Accuracy - how accurate the information/data is generated or provided by that source. 2. Authority - How credible and authentic the data or information is. Is it traceable? Varifiable? 3. Objectivity - How relevant that data or information is? 4. Currency - How up-to-date and current information or data is which a source of information is providing. 5. Coverage - The information/data being provided covers problem dimensions, antecedents, symptoms?

Thoughtful data collection is imperative for gathering useful information. The method depends on the source and problem context. For existing documentation, I carefully record key facts, figures, and insights pertinent to my inquiry. When interviewing, I prepare focused questions to extract expert knowledge while listening closely to discern nuances. Observations require developing a protocol to objectively capture behaviors. Questionnaires and surveys allow collecting input from many people consistently. Experiments test hypotheses in controlled settings. I always consider ethical implications and confidentiality.

Deciding the appropriate approach to collect data depends on the nature of problem, type of data and how the data is going to be used. Managers should categorise the data collection methods according to data types like Passive & Active data methods. Active Data collection methods are where respondents/subjects are physically involved in providing information like Diary method, face-to-face interview/survey, & panel discussions etc. Passive methods are where respondents/subjects are not physically involved like observation, mystery shopping, POS data, surveillance methods etc. Once techniques are categorized according to type of data, quantitative or qualitative categorization can be applied to further specify the appropriate technique.

Managers may start with descriptive analysis where descriptive analysis can be performed to see a broader picture, and in case they need to look at relationships or need to draw inferences, then causal techniques can be more useful. to further understand why certain relationships or trends are emerging, managers can go back to the basics and use exploratory research techniques to uncover underlying reasons/factors.

Thoughtful analysis is crucial for generating meaningful insights from gathered data. The approach depends on the data characteristics and problem context. For quantitative data, I may use descriptive statistics like averages and frequencies to summarize overall trends. Inferential statistics help determine correlations and make projections. For qualitative data like interviews, thematic analysis involves identifying common ideas that emerge and their relationships. Content analysis quantifies occurrences of keywords, phrases or concepts. I leverage tools like spreadsheet software to systematically organize data for efficient analysis.

Its very important that important and relevant information is chosen from each source. Then, the relevant information should be displayed in a visually attractive way. PowerBI, Tableau or other softwares can be used to create dashboards of quantitative information. If the textual data is involved, there are variety of tools available which can be used according to type and source of textual data. Once information/data is visually presentable, its very important that information is presentated from multiple sources in a comparative way.

I like to begin by summarizing the main findings and highlights from my analysis. This distills the essence of the information. Next, I examine findings across sources and analyses. Comparing and contrasting allows me to identify meaningful patterns and inconsistencies. Integrating complementary pieces provides a comprehensive understanding. I critically evaluate the synthesized information to recognize remaining gaps or weaknesses. Strong logic helps me resolve contradictions and extract overarching conclusions. By thoughtfully synthesizing information, I can develop robust answers to my initial problem and questions.

There are few points I want to add: 1. Consult Experts: Seek advice from subject matter experts or professionals who have experience in the domain related to the problem. They can offer valuable insights. 2. Brainstorming and Group Discussions: Engage in brainstorming sessions and group discussions to gather ideas and viewpoints from team members. 3. Feedback from Stakeholders: Gather feedback and input from relevant stakeholders, as they may have valuable insights or concerns related to the problem. It is important to consider these points in order to make effective decisions from the collected data.

Get out in nature. Really. Life is beautifully complex. But it's sometimes hard to see this in sterile, 'uniform' environments. So, next time you're trying to map a system of understand stocks and flows, feedback loops etc. go out into the bush or forest. Observe the ants and the birds. Get down close to the ground and explore the myriad living processes taking place right before your eyes. Slow down. You will see and sense-make more wholesomely as a result.