ACR Alpine Capital Research, LLC

Secular Bulls and Bears In this quarter’s commentary, we begin by sharing three observations from our review of US stock market history:   1)    US stock market history shows seven secular market cycles over the past hundred or so years – four bulls and three bears. 2)    Long-term market performance is radically different – alternatingly excellent and destructive – depending on whether you started in a secular bull or bear. 3)    The secular bulls and bears are nothing more than extremes in prices relative to profits. The path to investment success is, therefore, to focus on profits and not overpay for them. https://lnkd.in/gCNXhdCq #3Q #commentary #value #valueinvesting #pricetoearnings #fundamentalvalue #acr #alpinecapitalresearch

Celebrating 25 Years! #value #valueinvesting #pricetoearnings #fundamentalvalue #acr #alpinecapitalresearch

We’re #hiring a Director of Fundamental Analytics in Clayton, MO.

Borrowing From the Future Our latest commentary discusses how cyclically adjusted P/E multiples remain an excellent barometer for assessing potential investment returns. Based on our work determining normalized cash earning power for our companies (the “E” in the P/E), the ACR investment team remains confident in our ability to generate satisfactory returns, come what may. In stark contrast to the overall market, our Equity Quality Return (EQR) strategy has historically performed well regardless of the beginning stock market P/E. There is no secret to how we produced these results: ACR prunes our portfolios of high valuations in speculative markets. We insist on buying not only companies capable of producing durable cash flows, but owning them when their prices are low relative to those cash flows. https://lnkd.in/gRpZYSRV #2Q #commentary #value #valueinvesting #pricetoearnings #fundamentalvalue #acr #alpinecapitalresearch

Fish Where The Fish Are (Part Two) ACR’s most recent whitepapers are aptly named in honor of recently deceased Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s right-hand man. Munger was a brilliant thinker, witty philosopher, and investment role model for fundamental based investors like ACR.  His pithy advice “fish where the fish are” resonates with us powerfully.  In part one of our series, we made the claim that the opportunity in international equity markets is the best we have seen in two decades.   In part two of two, we delve into why active management holds enduring advantages in capitalizing on international investment opportunities: https://lnkd.in/gg9ZB_up #alpinecapitalreserach #acr #valueinvesting #fundamentalvalue #value #internationalequitymarkets

Fish Where The Fish Are (Part One) ACR’s most recent whitepapers are aptly named in honor of recently deceased Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s right-hand man. Munger was a brilliant thinker, witty philosopher, and investment role model for fundamental based investors like ACR.  His pithy advice “fish where the fish are” resonates with us powerfully. While the U.S. market often basks in the spotlight, we believe international equity markets currently present a stocked pond of attractive investment opportunities. In part one of two, we highlight the valuation case for investing in international equity markets: https://lnkd.in/gu56ipXE #alpinecapitalreserach #valueinvesting #fundamentalvalue #value #internationalequitymarkets

We're #hiring an Investment Analyst to join our team in Clayton, MO. Please apply or share via the link below.

Circles of Competence, Ignorance, and AI Should a competent investor often use the phrase, “I don’t know”? At ACR, we believe the words “I don’t know” are three of the most important in investing. Our latest quarterly commentary examines our “circle of competence” as well as our “circle of ignorance” and how the practical application of this concept coincides with one of ACR’s five core investment principles – invest only in what we understand.   Smart and curious investors are likely to expand their circle of ignorance at a greater rate than their circle of competence. Widening our circle of ignorance more than our circle of competence may be the single most important process discipline that we have taken to protect from disappointing results. Investing is a humbling business. There are more ways to lose than win. https://lnkd.in/gDXvD5pm #1Q #commentary #value #valueinvesting #pricetoearnings #fundatmentalvalue #acr #alpinecapitalresearch 

What is a “satisfactory” investment return? - It is NOT necessarily alpha relative to the random return of an index, an outcome that - while nice - is likely disconnected from an investor’s specific goal. - It IS a dependable investment return that at least meets (i.e., satisfies) the minimum funding needs and spending goals required by a bespoke asset owner, investor or allocator plus inflation (net of fees). As underscored in the newly authored missive available here, ACR’s outcome-driven equity strategy has been proficient at delivering satisfactory results. NACUBO Commonfund Pensions & Investments https://lnkd.in/gdccmKCc  

What is a “satisfactory” investment return? - It is NOT necessarily alpha relative to the random return of an index, an outcome that - while nice - is likely disconnected from an investor’s specific goal. - It IS a dependable investment return that at least meets (i.e., satisfies) the minimum funding needs and spending goals required by a bespoke asset owner, investor or allocator plus inflation (net of fees). As underscored in the newly authored missive available here, ACR’s outcome-driven equity strategy has been proficient at delivering satisfactory results. NACUBO Commonfund Pensions & Investments https://lnkd.in/gdccmKCc