Advanced Asset Management Advisors

#Tariff headlines are making waves in the market. We recently tackled the topic in our mid quarter update. Tune in as AAMA CIO, Phil Voelker, discusses tariff dynamics and potential impacts: Listen to the full commentary here: https://lnkd.in/gceyTzCc #Tariffs

It's always fun to talk shop with friends! Thanks Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™ for having us on the show. Looking for a fundamental perspective on the markets and economy today? Tune in:

Are rich stock valuations and earnings expectations the new normal? Have we seen a fundamental shift? AAMA CIO, Phil Voelker, gave his take in our recent mid quarter commentary. Tune in to the full commentary here: https://lnkd.in/gceyTzCc

Are high stock valuations the “new normal”? What’s going on with inflation? And how might tariffs affect the economy & markets? Tune in as we tackle each question in the mid-quarter market update (link below) 👇 https://lnkd.in/gceyTzCc

#OrionAscent was a blast, and we were honored to speak with advisors on the markets and portfolio construction. In case you missed it, here are 3 quick takeaways for advisors managing client assets 👇 https://lnkd.in/g-Wbx656

Heading to #OrionAscent? Join us on Tuesday for a session that’s packed with insight: market commentary AND portfolio blending strategy — with CE credit available (CFP & IWI designations). 

Do markets trust the Fed’s latest forecast? Will the economy continue to defy recession indicators? Will earnings rise to meet stock valuations? We dig into 2024’s most pressing questions here 👇

How does a fundamental investment manager view today’s overvalued market? AAMA’s CIO discusses price levels today, the bullish reaction to earnings, and where we see relative value. Interested in additional market insight? Tune in to the full November update here: https://lnkd.in/g4aKE6u5

Everything seems to be high today – valuations, inflation, earnings expectations, speculation! We’re looking at things through a fundamental lens to stay grounded. Tune in to see what that looks like: https://lnkd.in/g4aKE6u5

The Fed’s favorite inflation index (PCE Core Services Ex-Energy & Housing) just clocked in the highest monthly increase since March, with an annualized rate of 3.81%. But one month doesn’t make the trend... In the past we’ve always looked at 6-month moving averages, to smooth out month-to-month volatility. We suspect the Fed does the same, and it’s worth noting that the 6-month moving average was well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target when rates were cut in September. And we can see in the chart below that the moving average has begun to shallow out, as inflation remains sticky. We’ve been consistent in our synopsis of persistent inflation, particularly in services. This persistence argued for a smaller rate cut or no cut in September, and argues for the Fed to consider a pause in future rate reductions. The bond market has voted similarly with 10 year Treasury rates higher by 60 bps and mortgage rates back at 7% since the 9/18 rate cut. A pause in the trajectory or velocity of the widely anticipated monetary easing path could be viewed as the weakening of what has been cited as a strong tailwind for markets and the economy. Consumers have continued to remain resilient in the face of rising prices, albeit with growing debt levels and a strained housing market. Along with recent inflation readings, the third quarter GDP growth estimate of 2.8% further challenges an aggressive, linear rate cutting schedule. However, if strain in the housing market is exacerbated, we could see a change in consumption trends. Housing is an important segment that affects consumer confidence, and in turn, spending. In terms of recession risk, we believe the housing market is first on the list of potential economic indicators that are worth following closely. Another important factor to monitor when considering inflation and economic growth is the Federal deficit, which has been expanding rapidly.  Money supply annualized growth (which had turned negative in 2023) has again turned positive, bringing cumulative annualized growth of 6.8% over the last 5 years (when compared to pre-pandemic levels). The monetarist in us recognizes the inflationary impact of money supply growth. One of the greatest challenges facing the Fed today is how to drain unprecedented levels of liquidity out of the system without hurting employment and consumer confidence? Interested in additional market insight? Click here to access our market commentary and economic dashboard: https://lnkd.in/gpW5gDne