Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets

The ability to spend unlimited amounts of money in the political process on both the left and right has broken the link between voters and their representatives, and replaced it instead with links between representatives and their unlimited financial supporters, including the national parties. NOW thru Tuesday: The Alaska screening of Unrepresented, the award-winning documentary exposing the corrupting influence of money in politics. Join us in watching, then join us again for a panel discussion on Tuesday at 5p. Deets here: https://lnkd.in/d-yh3CD

Showing where his attention lies (more govt programs, more govt spending), Bradner entirely ignores the gaping budget holes the Dunleavy Admin is leaving behind, and his failure to propose equitable, low-impact solutions to them. How can Bradner possibly miss that? #akleg https://lnkd.in/gvP2ZMWB

One of the things that intrigues is the significant diversion in the growth rates for Alaska PCE and CPI since 2015. It replicates what is happening nationally, so there should be some literature, but it means that CPI may not fully capture what #WorkingAKfams are experiencing. #akleg

This Wk's Alaska Landmine column| Digging into the Fall Revenue Sources Book explains why state royalty and production tax revenues are plunging even as overall production volumes and producer revenues skyrocket. #akleg https://lnkd.in/gEvzzw-g

From the perspective of #AKfams & #AKecon, Dunleavy's failure - and it's huge - as #AKbudget deficits have soared has been his refusal to push equitable, low-impact revs to close it. His strength has been his refusal to agree to permanently adopt "the most regressive tax ever proposed." #akleg Rather than attack Dunleavy on the first, his opponents instead oddly have attacked him on the second, themselves pushing for permanent - and failing that, continual temporary - adoption of "the most regressive tax ever proposed." In doing so, they have aligned with the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos, who greatly benefit from regressive taxes, against the interests of the very middle & lower-income - #Working - #AKfams & #AKecon they claim to champion. As we ramp up to the 2026 #akelect, we hope that #AKgov & #AKleg candidates find ways to realign with #AKfams and the #AKecon. While the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos may contribute a bit more under the alternatives, it won't be much as a share of income, but middle & lower-income #AKfams - where outmigration is occurring now - will be much better off.

The Sunday Inflation & Interest Rate Charts| To help better understand cost projections, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow three measures of inflation. > First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. https://lnkd.in/gFuQhZWF PCE: up 42% (4.2%/yr) CPI: up 23% (2.3%/yr) > Second, the current rate + forward expectations as measured in the Treas market. https://lnkd.in/gc--DeHQ Current: 2.73% (Nov) 10yr Avg: 2.34% Next 5yrs: 2.40% 5 yrs Beyond That: 2.28% 𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨: We track the current Fed funds rate + 10-, 20- & 30-year US Treas Bond yields. https://lnkd.in/gHUkXR4T Effective Fed funds rate: 4.33% US Treas Bond yields -- 10-Yr: 4.57% 20-Yr: 4.86% 30-Yr: 4.79%

The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: No MPC ANS runs since Nov. #akleg * Deliveries month to date: 1.8 * Not in ANS Service: 2 (HIL, MPC) * Asia: 0 * USWC: 9 (5 CP, 2 HIL, 2 XOM) in runs

🤔 What the Fall RSB tells us 20yrs of SB21 produces. We finally get to the production boom it promised and ... production taxes (which were supposed to be the way the state benefits) collapse. #akleg

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $72, behind both Brent ($-1.64) and Brent/WTI avg (-$0.02). #akleg

ICYMI. This Wk's Alaska Landmine column| Digging into the Fall Revenue Sources Book explains why state royalty and production tax revenues are plunging even as overall production volumes and producer revenues skyrocket. #akleg https://lnkd.in/gEvzzw-g