Beacon Economics LLC

The U.S. economy looks as strong as it does right now because of two stimulative (and unsustainable) drivers: the yawning Federal deficit and sky-high asset prices. Calling a bubble is always risky business. When can we truly say that assets are overvalued given the vagaries of future outcomes? That said, Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg's latest outlook for the nation, finds that "this is clearly a bubble." View the latest Beacon Outlook United States for more.

Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg's new commentary in The Mercury News argues that while Silicon Valley is still the king of tech, a lack of housing supply threatens to dethrone the region.

Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg will be presenting a new economic forecast for 2025 on Feb 7th at the Alternative Investment Summit presented by Alliance Portfolio. There's a mix of excitement and caution in the air as the new year begins. We hope you can join us for a look at what's next for inflation, employment, trade, housing, GDP, and more! Video Invite: https://lnkd.in/ghxcN4QB Register Here: https://lnkd.in/g7Dy9D9P

The devastating fires in Los Angeles have raised questions about the disaster's economic impact and the region's recovery. CalMatters takes a broad look at the state of the CA economy before the fires, and now. Beacon Research Manager Justin Niakamal weighs in on the drivers and constraints affecting job growth in the state.

Research Manager Niree Kodaverdian, Ph.D. talks to NBCLA about our latest outlook for California... and how some of President-Elect Trump's proposed policies might affect the state's economy.

Post-election, our new outlook for California takes stock of the state’s economic standing and concludes that the world’s fifth largest economy is still home to high incomes, high economic output, and critically important global industries. Californians continue to enjoy significantly higher household income than the national median and, due to unexpectedly high tax revenue from its booming corporations, the state has reduced its whopping $47 billion budget deficit down to $2 billion. However, the new outlook also warns that some of President-Elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies could hit California’s economy particularly hard because they take aim at things the state relies upon.

Join Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg at Alliance Portfolio's Investment Summit on Feb 7! He'll be delivering a new 2025 outlook for the U.S. economy, including a look at where real estate, labor markets, GDP, income, trade, and other key indicators are heading. Register now! https://lnkd.in/g7Dy9D9P

We're proud to have been part of the largest and most comprehensive survey ever taken of vineyard employees, providing insight into their career plans, job satisfaction, wages, and more. The survey findings are eye opening and reveal an agricultural workforce eager to gain new skills, leverage technology and automation, and play a key role in the future of agriculture in California. Thank you to the Fundación de la Voz de los Viñedos for an amazing collaboration!

Who should we credit for Trump’s big win? Jerome Powell of course. The red wave that swept Donald Trump to a second term took most everybody by surprise. Yet a cursory look at the data shows us that the Democrats never stood a chance—not because of their platform, but because of prevailing social narratives about the U.S. economy. When consumer sentiment falls over the course of an administration, the incumbent party is almost certain to lose. Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg's new commentary looks at the last 16 presidential elections, 1964-2024, and finds that this pattern is remarkably clear. The reason for today's peeved consumer is of course the 2021-2023 bout of inflation, which was, in turn, caused by the Federal Reserve's $5 trillion in quantitative easing. How ironic that President-Elect Trump has made no effort to hide his disdain for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell—the man who inadvertently helped him reclaim the Presidency!

"California’s economy is strong, but some of November’s propositions could do more harm than good. Policies like raising the minimum wage and expanding rent control often backfire, leading to higher unemployment and housing shortages." Excerpted from Research Manager Niree Kodaverdian, Ph.D. new op-ed in the San Francisco Business Times.