Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

"2024 will likely be the hottest year on record, with global mean surface air temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average. Global greenhouse gas emissions are also projected to reach an all-time high of 41.6 billion metric tons, a billion more than last year, as a result of continued fossil fuel emissions and deforestation. These are depressing, if not unexpected, milestones. As I look back on the climate stories that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published in 2024, what stands out most is our coverage of solutions—from promising nature-based adaptation and mitigation efforts to dangerous, techno-optimist interventions in the Earth’s climate. Limiting and responding to the climate crisis will be a continual challenge for current and future generations, but—as I must constantly remind myself—progress is possible." Bulletin climate editor Jessica McKenzie on seven noteworthy stories about potential progress on climate change in 2024. ⬇️

A naval research analyst. A journalist covering arts and culture. A PhD candidate in international studies. A former Navy helicopter pilot turned military professor. And a master’s student in management science and engineering. These were among the emerging experts the Bulletin published in 2024. This year, contributors to our "Voices of Tomorrow" section had some thoughtful takes on military strategy and culture. They wrote about the military’s nuclear language, the risks of sharing nuclear weapons with allies, the flaws in the military strategy known as “escalate to de-escalate,” and what soldiers really think of killer robots. Plus a fresh perspective on whether TikTok is a national security risk. Check out their fresh perspectives, selected by Bulletin editor Dawn Stover.

"The collapse of the brutal Assad regime in Syria opens a new chapter for the embattled country. To break with past atrocities, Syria’s current leaders should renounce chemical weapons, and the international community should require any new Syrian government to hand over all chemical arms and allow inspectors to confirm their absence." "Note to Syrian rebels: Give up Assad’s chemical weapons and prosecute those who used them," by Doniyor Mutalov. Note that this article contains sensitive material.

While the Bulletin pays close attention to developments with artificial intelligence, you’re unlikely to see AI-generated visuals on our site. "We Bulletin multimedia editors are proud to be human. And the content we generate comes from our own weird minds. So here are some of our favorite stories we worked on in 2024, from our minds to your eyes." "Doomscrolling—the fun way! Our picks for best multimedia stories in 2024," by Erik English and Thomas Gaulkin. ⬇️

Another year, another 366 days of tech (with a healthy dose of AI). Bulletin disruptive technologies editor Sara Goudarzi on five noteworthy pieces from our 2024 tech coverage. Topics span from the tech industry and politics, misinformation, artificial intelligence, and surveillance around the world. ⬇️

Some worry that the war between an increasingly desperate Ukraine and an emboldened, nuclear-armed Russia could spin out of control. How likely is that to really happen? "One way to think about nuclear escalation in the context of Russia’s current war against Ukraine is to build scenarios in which Russia uses a nuclear weapon and then trace a logically compelling pathway back to the present. It then becomes possible to ask what conditions could enable such a pathway to escalation." Janice Stein breaks these scenarios down for the Bulletin in the article below. Stein is the founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and the Belzberg Professor of conflict management with the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.

In Louisiana, only "86 percent of kindergartners are up to date on all of the vaccinations required for kindergarten, which collectively protect against 10 infectious diseases–diseases that can lead to cancer, paralysis, deafness, brain injury, and death." At a time when President-elect Donald Trump is nominating anti-vaccine movement leaders to top federal public health positions, activists are organizing to counter an anti-vax agenda that is already seeing success in many states. "Historically, the pro-vaccine community has been a silent majority. With Trump nominating candidates for health-related positions who don’t accept long-standing, proven tenets of public health, the necessity of speaking out about the public health gains afforded by immunizations has never been more evident," writes Jennifer Herricks, founder of Louisiana Families for Vaccines. Herricks holds a doctorate in microbiology and molecular genetics from the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston and completed a postdoctoral fellowship in global health policy with a focus on infectious diseases. Read "RFK Jr. may soon become health secretary, but Louisiana and other states are already passing anti-vaccine laws" for more below.

"In the dry valley between the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta and the Serranía del Perijá mountain ranges, in northern Colombia, former combatants in the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia guerilla group, or FARC, are leading a surprising new revolution: regenerative agriculture." How well can regenerative agriculture work as a tool for peacebuilding in conflict areas? "Globally, conflict and environmental risks are simultaneously on the rise—with one often exacerbating the other. Environmental stresses from extreme weather events like drought and floods and displacement caused by regional conflicts are increasingly challenging people’s ability to make a living and undermining human security. More than 20 million people are displaced by environmental threats annually; another five million (at least) are displaced by conflict. Agricultural productivity and environmental quality are decreasing in most areas of the world that people inhabit. Evaluating if—and subsequently how and under what conditions—these challenges can be simultaneously addressed is a critical area of research. Evidence of regenerative production as an intentional vehicle for peacebuilding in conflict contexts is scant, but early indications suggest it might at least begin to meet that tall order." Read the full article by Richard "Drew" Marcantonio, researcher, teacher and practitioner of environmental peacebuilding at the University of Notre Dame, below.

Nuclear fusion powers our sun and other stars through the combination, or fusing, of two hydrogen atoms into one helium atom, a process which releases vast amounts of energy. On December 5, 2022, fusion was achieved for the first time in human history in something other than a hydrogen bomb—if only for a fraction of a second. But there's a bigger problem: There may not be enough tritium, a key fuel used to make nuclei fuse. Scientists were hoping to create more of it, but in order to "breed" tritium you must already have a working fusion reactor. Getting around this problem could be daunting, says Daniel Jassby, a retired physicist from the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and a critic of this approach. https://lnkd.in/eQctG97d

Big tech is turning to nuclear energy to power the energy-hungry data centers that artificial intelligence systems need. The downsides of nuclear power—including the potential for nuclear weapons proliferation—have been minimized or simply ignored. https://lnkd.in/eWTNtav8