Combating Terrorism Center

November feature commentary: “Organizing for Innovation: Lessons from Digital Counterterrorism” by Brian F. “Digital platforms were slow to build robust teams to counter threat actors, but today, many of those corporate teams have robust processes, specialized tools, and innovative approaches to countering highly adaptive adversaries. They operate in a tremendously dynamic environment where their adversaries can innovate at low cost, primarily because of the nature of the digital “terrain” where the conflict occurs. And while the actions these teams take are not kinetic, as those sometimes utilized in geopolitical conflict, the cat-and-mouse game between Trust & Safety teams and threat actors online suggests lessons that are increasingly relevant to the national security community. This article explores five factors that were key to facilitating innovation in Facebook’s approach to countering the Islamic State—and that I argue are more generalizable. They are: people, organization, legitimacy, tools, and collaboration. It also identifies lessons that can be learned from that experience. For example, we did not prioritize using a particular technology or focus experimentation in some bespoke “innovation center.” Rather, we succeeded because we were made responsible for a critical mission, were unencumbered by past process, and had the right team structured to reduce external dependencies for innovation. Basic technological innovation can occur in an ivory tower, but applied innovation requires proximity to real-world missions. You cannot expect dramatic innovation without failure and iteration in an environment of real responsibility. Fundamentally, that means that innovation requires accepting risk. The structures and incentives of Silicon Valley cannot and should not simply be grafted on to our national security infrastructure. The rewards and costs of failure are different. But military organizations should shoulder the risks associated with innovation and study the lessons of corollary efforts in Silicon Valley and the private sector more broadly.” Access the article here: https://lnkd.in/ea7uNm4Z

November analysis: “Go Big or Stay Home? A Framework for Understanding Terrorist Group Expansion” by Daniel Milton “Terrorist organizations are not monolithic entities when it comes to many different aspects of their activities. Among other things, they may change goals, leaders, and tactics over time. This article focuses on one particular type of change: the decision by a terrorist group to geographically expand attack operations outside of its home base of operations. The article presents a discussion of what is meant by expansion and contends that expansion can be best understood in terms of the opportunity and willingness framework. It then turns to an application of this framework to two cases of expansion: the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) into multiple countries.” Access the article here: https://lnkd.in/ey_68i6u

November analysis: “Convergence and the CT Return on Investment: A Framework” by Don Rassler and Sean Morrow “Since 2018, the United States has been trying to figure out what counterterrorism looks like during an era of strategic competition, and how it can maximize and optimize returns from its counterterrorism investments. There are important differences between these two national security priorities—strategic competition and counterterrorism—but if the United States wants to gain resource efficiencies, it should look across the gray space at how and where these two priorities interplay and converge. This is because a key part of the pathway to CT optimization lies in realizing how counterterrorism has evolved as a form of influence. This article introduces a conceptual framework to help the counterterrorism community situate the returns from CT investments, especially deployed CT force activity. It recommends that those returns be understood through two lenses: 1) those that are direct and oriented around threat mitigation and 2) those that are intersectional and oriented around influence. Interviews with three experts provide context to elements of the framework and highlight the interplay between counterterrorism and strategic competition in different regional areas.” Access the article here: https://lnkd.in/e4ZHGTBP

November analysis: “Show and Tell: Expert Perspectives on Indicators and Warning Approaches for External Terror Ops” by Brian Dodwell, Don Rassler, and Paul Cruickshank “It is critical for the counterterrorism community to have a sophisticated understanding of the components of external operations and the indicators that help to signal that a network’s interest, capabilities, or attack planning are advancing. It is even more critical to be able to effectively provide warning when an external operations terror attack is imminent. To help enhance and validate existing indicators and warning approaches, the authors conducted a survey of 30 practitioners, academics, and private sector specialists to acquire unique and varied insights on this important issue. This article provides a summary of key indicators that could indicate a change in a group’s intent and capability to conduct an external operations attack. It then examines existing shortfalls and offers potential solutions in the areas of artificial intelligence, data prioritization, and information sharing, before concluding with some unique models to consider from other fields that can help existing I&W approaches to evolve.” Access the article here: https://lnkd.in/era3acna

November feature interview: “A View from the CT Foxhole: General Bryan Fenton, Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command” by Sean Morrow and Don Rassler “We are always working to do things better and faster, and we’re not afraid to fail fast and try again. The close coordination between SOCOM and industry enables movement at a pace we haven’t seen before.” - GEN Bryan Fenton Access the interview here: https://lnkd.in/eA5xxFg7

November feature article: “Smart Pressure: Conceptualizing Counterterrorism for a New Era” by Don Rassler “When it comes to counterterrorism, the United States has been living through an inflection point. It wants to focus less on terrorism so it can place more emphasis on strategic competition, but key terrorist adversaries remain committed. The terrorism landscape and the approaches used by key terror adversaries have also been evolving. The United States and its partners have been placing various forms of pressure against priority networks such as the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida in key locations to keep the threats these groups pose degraded, and to restrict their ability to conduct external operations and other impactful acts of terror. But over the past two years, there have been growing signs that the Islamic State is evolving around the pressure that has been placed against it, developments that highlight the limits of existing CT pressure approaches and the need for those approaches to evolve. This article introduces two frameworks: 1) a framework to help conceptualize non-state VEO power and CT pressure efforts to degrade those elements of power and 2) a defense and degradation in depth framework that can be used to help strategically guide future CT pressure campaigns. It is hoped that these frameworks provoke debate within the counterterrorism community and that they help the United States and its allies adjust their CT approaches so they can evolve to stay ahead of the threat.” Access the article here: https://lnkd.in/ej99vjAP

New Sentinel is out now: https://lnkd.in/eMgaFsNM “Smart Pressure: Conceptualizing Counterterrorism for a New Era” by Don Rassler “A View from the CT Foxhole: General Bryan Fenton, Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command” by Sean Morrow and Don Rassler “Show and Tell: Expert Perspectives on Indicators and Warning Approaches for External Terror Ops” by Brian Dodwell, Don Rassler, and Paul Cruickshank “Convergence and the CT Return on Investment: A Framework” by Don Rassler and Sean Morrow “Go Big or Stay Home? A Framework for Understanding Terrorist Group Expansion” by Daniel Milton “Feature Commentary: Organizing for Innovation: Lessons from Digital Counterterrorism” by Brian F. #SOSH Department of Social Sciences, USMA United States Military Academy at West Point USSOCOM

Meet our Cadet of the Month for November: McClain Matter. An Economics major with a minor in Terrorism Studies, CDT Matter conducts research through the American Politics program and is a member of the Pistol Team where he is a two-time national qualifier: https://lnkd.in/d6Uta2UW Department of Social Sciences, USMA United States Military Academy at West Point

Last week, CTC hosted FDNY’s Chief in Charge of Training Thomas Currao and Deputy Chief in Charge of CTDP Paul Miller in our Homeland Security couse. A unique opportunity for cadets to learn from New York City Fire Department leadership on the topic of national preparedness and emergency response!

“Artificial Intelligence Is Accelerating Iranian Cyber Operations” — The Lawfare Institute article by CTC Downing Scholar Noelle Kerr and CTC Alum Nakissa Jahanbani, Ph.D. https://lnkd.in/eNyzJe8p